Determinants of acute kidney injury duration after cardiac surgery: an externally validated tool.
ABSTRACT Acute kidney injury (AKI) duration after cardiac surgery is associated with poor survival in a dose-dependent manner. However, it is not known what perioperative risk factors contribute to prolonged AKI and delayed recovery. We sought to identify perioperative risk factors that predict duration of AKI, a complication that effects short and long-term survival.
We studied 4,987 consecutive cardiac surgery patients from 2002 through 2007. Acute kidney injury was defined as a 0.3 or greater (mg/dL) or 50% or greater increase in serum creatinine from baseline. Duration of AKI was defined by the number of days AKI was present. Stepwise multivariable negative binomial regression analysis was conducted using perioperative risk factors for AKI duration. The c-index was estimated by Kendall's tau.
Acute kidney injury developed in 39% of patients with a median duration of AKI at 3 days and ranged from 1 to 108 days. Patients without AKI had a duration of 0 days. Independent predictors of AKI duration included baseline patient and disease characteristics, and operative and postoperative factors. Prediction for mean duration of AKI was developed using coefficients from the regression model and externally validated the model on 1,219 cardiac surgery patients in a separate cardiac surgery cohort (Translational Research Investigating Biomarker Endpoints-AKI). The c-index was 0.65 (p<0.001) for the derivation cohort and 0.62 (p<0.001) for the validation cohort.
We identified and externally validated perioperative predictors of AKI duration. These risk factors will be useful to evaluate a patient's risk for the tempo of recovery from AKI after cardiac surgery and subsequent short and long-term survival. The levels of awareness created by working with these risk factors have implications regarding positive changes in processes of care that have the potential to decrease the incidence and mitigate AKI.
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ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury is an increasingly common and potentially catastrophic complication in hospitalized patients. Early observational studies from the 1980s and 1990s established the general epidemiologic features of acute kidney injury: the incidence, prognostic significance, and predisposing medical and surgical conditions. Recent multicenter observational cohorts and administrative databases have enhanced our understanding of the overall disease burden of acute kidney injury and trends in its epidemiology. An increasing number of clinical studies focusing on specific types of acute kidney injury (e.g., in the setting of intravenous contrast, sepsis, and major surgery) have provided further details into this heterogeneous syndrome. Despite our sophisticated understanding of the epidemiology and pathobiology of acute kidney injury, current prevention strategies are inadequate and current treatment options outside of renal replacement therapy are nonexistent. This failure to innovate may be due in part to a diagnostic approach that has stagnated for decades and continues to rely on markers of glomerular filtration (blood urea nitrogen and creatinine) that are neither sensitive nor specific. There has been increasing interest in the identification and validation of novel biomarkers of acute kidney injury that may permit earlier and more accurate diagnosis. This review summarizes the major epidemiologic studies of acute kidney injury and efforts to modernize the approach to its diagnosis.Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology 06/2008; 3(3):844-61. · 5.07 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is associated with worse outcomes. However, it is not known how adverse long-term consequences vary according to the duration of AKI. We sought to determine the association between duration of AKI and survival. Medical records of 4,987 cardiac surgery patients from 2002 through 2007 with serum creatinine (SCr) collection at a medical center in northern New England were reviewed. Acute kidney injury was defined as at least a 0.3 (mg/dL) or at least a 50% increase in SCr from baseline and further classified into AKI Network stages. Duration of AKI was defined by the number of days AKI was present and categorized as no AKI and AKI for 1 to 2, 3 to 6, and at least 7 days. Thirty-nine percent of patients exhibited AKI. Long-term survival was significantly different by AKI duration (p < 0.001). The proportion of patients with AKI duration, adjusted hazard ratio, and 95% confidence interval for mortality (no AKI as referent) were as follows: 1 to 2 days (18%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.32 to 2.09), 3 to 6 days (11%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.51 to 2.49), ≥7 days (9%; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.40; 95% confidence interval, 2.73 to 4.25). This graded relationship of duration of AKI with long-term mortality persisted when patients who died during hospitalization were excluded from analysis (p < 0.001). Propensity-matched analysis confirmed results. The duration of AKI after cardiac surgery is directly proportional to long-term mortality. This AKI dose-dependent effect on long-term mortality helps to close the gap between association and causation, whereby AKI stages and AKI duration have important implications for patient care and can aid clinicians in evaluating the risk of in-hospital and postdischarge death.The Annals of thoracic surgery 10/2010; 90(4):1142-8. · 3.74 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is primarily defined and staged according to the magnitude of the rise in serum creatinine. Here we sought to determine if the duration of AKI adds additional prognostic information above that from the magnitude of injury alone. We prospectively studied 35,302 diabetic patients from 123 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers undergoing their first noncardiac surgery. The main outcome was long-term mortality in those who survived the index hospitalization. AKI was stratified by magnitude according to AKI Network stages and by the duration (short (less than 2 days), medium (3-6 days) or long (7 days or more)). Overall, 17.8% of patients experienced at least stage 1 AKI or greater following surgery. Both the magnitude and duration of AKI were significantly associated with long-term survival in a dose-dependent manner. Within each stage, longer duration of AKI was significantly associated with a graded higher rate of mortality. However, within each of the duration categories, the stage was not associated with mortality. When considered separately in multivariate analyses, both a higher stage and duration were independently associated with increased risk of long-term mortality. Hence, the duration of AKI adds additional information to predict long-term mortality.Kidney International 11/2010; 78(9):926-33. · 7.92 Impact Factor