Declining rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in urban Shanghai: incidence trends in 1976-2005.
ABSTRACT In China, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates in several registry catchment populations are amongst the highest worldwide. The incidence rates in urban Shanghai were analyzed between 1976 and 2005 to describe and interpret the time trends. Age-specific and age-standardized rates were calculated and graphically presented. An age-period-cohort model was fitted to assess the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on the changing HCC incidence rates. In total, 35,241 and 13,931 men and women were diagnosed with HCC during 1976-2005 in urban Shanghai. The age-standardized incidence rates in urban Shanghai were 33.9 per 10(5) among men and 11.4 per 10(5) among women in 1976-1980, but decreased in both sexes to 25.8 per 10(5) and 8.5 per 10(5), respectively by 2001-2005. Accelerating rates in birth cohorts born in the early-1930s and decelerating rates circa 1945 were observed in both sexes, with further accelerations noted in the late-1950s (in women) and early-1960s (in men). Given the parameterization, increases in risk of HCC were seen in successive male and female generations between 1900 and 1935, followed by a further increase among successive cohorts born around 1960, with a reduction in risk in the most recent generations. The incidence rates of HCC in urban Shanghai from 1976 to 2005 have declined in both sexes, with the complex but similar patterns observed in successive generations suggestive of a shared changing prevalence in risk factors in men and women, with a role possibly for HBV interventions reducing risk of HCC in cohorts born after 1960.
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ABSTRACT: We examined the incidence trends of bladder and kidney cancers using a population-based cancer registration data. Age-standardized incidence rates were analyzed using data from the Shanghai Cancer Registry during 1973 to 2005. Annual percentage changes and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to evaluate the incidence changes. Age-period-cohort analysis was further implemented to assess the contributions of age, period and cohort effects to the trends using the intrinsic estimator method. In total, 12,676 bladder and 5,811 kidney cancer patients were registered in urban Shanghai. The age-standardized rates of bladder cancer in males increased from 6.39 to 7.66 per 100,000, or 0.62% per year, whereas the rates in females increased from 1.95 to 2.09 per 100,000, or 0.33% per year. For kidney cancer, the age-standardized rates in males increased from 1.20 to 5.64 per 100,000, or 6.98% per year. Similarly in females, the rates increased from 0.85 to 3.33 per 100,000, or 5.93% per year. Age-period-cohort analysis showed increasing curves of age and period effects but generally decreasing cohort effects for bladder and kidney cancers. Our results show increasing incidence trends of bladder and kidney cancers in Chinese men and women, especially for kidney cancer.PLoS ONE 12/2013; 8(12):e82430. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0082430 · 3.53 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Primary liver cancer (PLC) is a common cancer worldwide, especially in developing countries. Several previous studies using different datasets have summarized PLC incidence rates and trends in different populations. However, with changes in exposure to risk factors and the implementation of preventive measures, the epidemiology of PLC worldwide may have changed. We extended the analyses using the latest data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents over the 35-year period 1973-2007 from 24 populations in Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania using Joinpoint regression analysis. We examined age-standardized rates (ASRs) of PLC by histologic subtypes for both males and females in 24 populations during the period 2003-2007. We found that during the period 2003-2007, the highest ASRs for PLC were observed in some Asian populations, ranging from 19.0 to 26.7 per 100,000 in males and 4.8 to 8.7 per 100,000 in females. The international trends between 1973 and 2007 showed that ASRs for PLC were declining in several Asian populations. In contrast, ASRs for PLC were increasing in some European, American and Oceanian populations. Although the reasons were not fully clear for these trends, public health measures in Asian populations and HCV transmission in European, American and Oceanian populations were likely to have contributed to these patterns. Meanwhile, other possible risk factors such as the consumption of alcohol, obesity, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease should also be concerned for the burden of PLC.BMC Cancer 12/2015; 15(1):1113. DOI:10.1186/s12885-015-1113-4 · 3.32 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Uncertainty remains on the relationship between a family history of liver cancer and liver cancer risk in prospective cohort studies in a general population. Thus, we examined this association in 133,014 participants in the Shanghai Women's and Men's Health Studies. Family history of liver cancer was categorized through dichotomous and proportional score approaches. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were derived using the Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for potential confounders. A meta-analysis of observational studies through December 2013 on liver cancer risk in relation to family history of liver cancer was also performed. Study-specific risk estimates were combined using fixed or random effects models depending on whether significant heterogeneity was detected. For the Shanghai Women's and Men's Health Studies, 299 liver cancer cases were identified during follow-up through 2010. Family history of liver cancer was associated with liver cancer risk using both binary indicator (HR=2.60, 95%CI: 1.77-3.80) and proportional score (high-risk vs. minimal-risk category: HR=3.03, 95%CI: 1.73-5.31), with increasing HRs for increasing score categories. The Meta-analysis also showed an increased risk for those with a family history of liver cancer (RR=2.55, 95% CI: 2.05-3.16). Family history of liver cancer was related to increased risk of liver cancer in Chinese population. This risk is particularly high for those with an affected mother. The "dose-response" of risk with an increasing family history score of liver cancer might further facilitate future cancer prevention programs on identifying individuals with the highest potential liver cancer risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.International Journal of Cancer 02/2014; DOI:10.1002/ijc.28792 · 5.01 Impact Factor