Declining rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in urban Shanghai: Incidence trends in 1976-2005
ABSTRACT In China, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates in several registry catchment populations are amongst the highest worldwide. The incidence rates in urban Shanghai were analyzed between 1976 and 2005 to describe and interpret the time trends. Age-specific and age-standardized rates were calculated and graphically presented. An age-period-cohort model was fitted to assess the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on the changing HCC incidence rates. In total, 35,241 and 13,931 men and women were diagnosed with HCC during 1976-2005 in urban Shanghai. The age-standardized incidence rates in urban Shanghai were 33.9 per 10(5) among men and 11.4 per 10(5) among women in 1976-1980, but decreased in both sexes to 25.8 per 10(5) and 8.5 per 10(5), respectively by 2001-2005. Accelerating rates in birth cohorts born in the early-1930s and decelerating rates circa 1945 were observed in both sexes, with further accelerations noted in the late-1950s (in women) and early-1960s (in men). Given the parameterization, increases in risk of HCC were seen in successive male and female generations between 1900 and 1935, followed by a further increase among successive cohorts born around 1960, with a reduction in risk in the most recent generations. The incidence rates of HCC in urban Shanghai from 1976 to 2005 have declined in both sexes, with the complex but similar patterns observed in successive generations suggestive of a shared changing prevalence in risk factors in men and women, with a role possibly for HBV interventions reducing risk of HCC in cohorts born after 1960.
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ABSTRACT: The Rotterdam Study is a prospective cohort study ongoing since 1990 in the city of Rotterdam in The Netherlands. The study targets cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric, dermatological, oncological, and respiratory diseases. As of 2008, 14,926 subjects aged 45 years or over comprise the Rotterdam Study cohort. The findings of the Rotterdam Study have been presented in over a 1,000 research articles and reports (see www.erasmus-epidemiology.nl/rotterdamstudy ). This article gives the rationale of the study and its design. It also presents a summary of the major findings and an update of the objectives and methods.European Journal of Epidemiology 08/2011; 26(8):657-86. DOI:10.1007/s10654-011-9610-5 · 5.15 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Lack of cancer incidence information for adolescents and young adults led us to describe incidence trends within the young population of 15 to 49 year-olds in urban Shanghai between 1973 and 2005. During 1973 to 2005, data on 43,009 (45.8%) male and 50,828 (54.2%) female cancer cases aged 15-49 years from the Shanghai Cancer Registry were analyzed. Five-year age-specific rates, world age-standardized rates, percent change (PC), and annual percent change (APC) were calculated using annual data on population size and its estimated age structure. During the 33-year study period, overall cancer incidence of adolescents and young adults among males marginally decreased by 0.5% per year (P<0.05). However, overall cancer incidence for females slightly increased by 0.8% per year (P<0.05). The leading cancer for males in rank were liver, stomach, lung, colorectal, and nasopharyngeal cancers and for females were breast, stomach, colorectal, thyroid, and ovarian cancers. Among specific sites, incidence rates significantly decreased for cancers of the esophagus, stomach, and liver in both sexes. In contrast, incidence rates significantly increased for kidney cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and brain and nervous system tumors in both sexes and increased for breast and ovarian cancers among females. Overall cancer incidence rates of adolescents and young adults decreased in males whereas they increased in females. Our findings suggest the importance of further epidemiology and etiologic studies to further elucidate factors contributing to the cancer incidence trends of adolescents and young adults in China.PLoS ONE 08/2012; 7(8):e42607. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0042607 · 3.53 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Background No prospective study has investigated the relationship between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the risk of primary liver cancer (PLC) in mainland China, and little is known about the effect of diabetes duration on PLC risk.DesignData from two population-based cohorts (the Shanghai Men's Health Study, SMHS, 2002-2006 and the Shanghai Women's Health Study, SWHS, 1996-2000) were thus used to assess the associations among T2DM, diabetes duration and PLC risk in Chinese population.ResultsDuring follow-up through 2009, 344 incident PLC cases were identified among 60 183 men and 73 105 women. T2DM is significantly associated with the increased risk of PLC in both men [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-2.51] and women (HR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.03-2.61). The highest risk of incident liver cancer was observed in the first 5 years after diabetes diagnosis, and decreased substantially with the prolonged diabetes duration (P(trend) < 0.001). No synergistic interaction in the development of PLC was found between diabetes and other known risk factors.ConclusionsT2DM is associated with the increased risk of subsequent liver cancer within 5 years after diagnosis in Chinese population, suggesting that hyperinsulinaemia rather than hyperglycaemia is more likely to be a primary mediator for this association.Annals of Oncology 02/2013; 24(6). DOI:10.1093/annonc/mdt017 · 6.58 Impact Factor