Despite the existence of varicella vaccine, many developed countries have not introduced it into their national schedules, partly because of concerns about whether herpes zoster (HZ, shingles) will increase due to a lack of exogenous boosting. The magnitude of any increase in zoster that might occur is dependent on rates at which adults and children mix - something that has only recently been quantified - and could be reduced by simultaneously vaccinating older individuals against shingles. This study is the first to assess the cost-effectiveness of combined varicella and zoster vaccination options and compare this to alternative programmes.
"• Varicella vaccination protects current children from varicella, and years later, protects them from zoster, a more severe disease caused by reactivation of varicella in people who have recovered . In current adults though, vaccination could actually result in higher zoster incidence . Hence, there are important intercohort effects, with benefits to cohorts receiving the vaccine but detriments to older cohorts. "
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen. Best practices for designing and building these models are set out in this paper.
Medical Decision Making 09/2012; 32(5):712-721. DOI:10.1177/0272989X12454578 · 3.24 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objective:
Varicella vaccination has not been introduced worldwide, especially in developing countries. The present study assesses the potential epidemiological and economic impact of one-dose and two-dose varicella vaccination schemes in Colombia, a south American upper middle-income country.
A decision-tree based model was developed. Varicella cases were estimated based on previous reports of seropositivity within the country. Cost per life-year gained (LYG) was the main outcome measure. Costs from the health care system perspective were expressed in 2008 American dollars. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.
In Colombia, there would be 700,197 varicella cases in an average year plus 60 yearly deaths without vaccination. It was estimated that health care costs for all cases during 30 years period could be around US $88,734,735 (with discount). Cost per LYG of one-dose vaccination was US $2519 and using a two-dose scheme was US $5728.
Vaccinating against varicella in Colombia, an upper middle-income South American country is cost-effective under the assumptions used in this study. Decision-makers should consider introducing universal varicella vaccination in Colombia, given the effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of this intervention.
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