Health and economic burden of the projected trends in the USA and the UK

Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
The Lancet (Impact Factor: 45.22). 08/2011; 378(9793):815-25. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60814-3
Source: PubMed


Rising prevalence of obesity is a worldwide health concern because excess weight gain within populations forecasts an increased burden from several diseases, most notably cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and cancers. In this report, we used a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences in the next two decades from a continued rise in obesity in two ageing populations--the USA and the UK. These trends project 65 million more obese adults in the USA and 11 million more obese adults in the UK by 2030, consequently accruing an additional 6-8·5 million cases of diabetes, 5·7-7·3 million cases of heart disease and stroke, 492,000-669,000 additional cases of cancer, and 26-55 million quality-adjusted life years forgone for USA and UK combined. The combined medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year in the USA and by £1·9-2 billion/year in the UK by 2030. Hence, effective policies to promote healthier weight also have economic benefits.

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Available from: Tim Marsh, Oct 02, 2015
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    • "In 2011, it was projected that, by 2030, there will be an additional 65 million obese adults in the US, resulting in 6–8 million additional cases of diabetes, 5–6.8 million additional cases of heart disease and stroke, and 400,000–500,000 additional cases of cancer. The cost associated with the rise in these diseases is estimated at $48–$66 billion a year [10]. Globally, obesity is estimated to account for 0.7%–2.8% of total healthcare expenditures, and the combination of overweight and obesity is estimated to account for 9.1% of total healthcare expenditures [11]. "
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    • "The steep rise in overweight and obesity prevalence among children and adolescents has led to concern (Livingstone, 2001; Ogden et al., 2006). Overweight early in life is associated with a number of adverse physical and mental health outcomes in youth, but also later in life (Bell et al., 2011; Wang, McPherson, Marsh, Gortmaker, & Brown, 2011). Further, overweight children and adolescents tend to become overweight adults (Bayer, Krüger, von Kries, & Toschke, 2011; Kvaavik, Tell, & Klepp, 2003). "
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    • "Le NCD sono la principale causa di morte al mondo, essendo responsabili di un numero di decessi superiori rispetto a quello da tutte le altre cause messe insieme. Infatti, oltre il 60% dei decessi a livello globale è attualmente imputabile a esse [3]. "
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