Validation of the CHADS2 clinical prediction rule to predict ischaemic stroke

HRB Centre for Primary Care Research, Department of General Practice, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, 123 St Stephens Green, Dublin 2, Republic of Ireland.
Thrombosis and Haemostasis (Impact Factor: 4.98). 07/2011; 106(3):528-38. DOI: 10.1160/TH11-02-0061
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT The CHADS2 predicts annual risk of ischaemic stroke in non-valvular atrial fibrillation. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to determine the predictive value of CHADS2. The literature was systematically searched from 2001 to October 2010. Data was pooled and analysed using discrimination and calibration statistical measures, using a random effects model. Eight data sets (n = 2815) were included. The diagnostic accuracy suggested a cut-point of ≥ 1 has higher sensitivity (92%) than specificity (12%) and a cut-point of ≥ 4 has higher specificity (96%) than sensitivity (33%). Lower summary estimates were observed for cut-points ≥ 2 (sensitivity 79%, specificity 42%) and ≥ 3 (specificity 77%, sensitivity 50%). There was insufficient data to analyse cut-points ≥ 5 or ≥ 6. Moderate pooled c statistic values were identified for the classic (0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.75) and revised (0.60, 95% CI 0.43-0.72) view of stratification of the CHADS2. Calibration analysis indicated no significant difference between the predicted and observed strokes across the three risk strata for the classic or revised view. All results were associated with high heterogeneity, and conclusions should be made cautiously. In conclusion, the pooled c statistic and calibration analysis suggests minimal clinical utility of both the classic and revised view of the CHADS2 in predicting ischaemic stroke across all risk strata. Due to high heterogeneity across studies and low event rates across all risk strata, the results should be interpreted cautiously. Further validation of CHADS2 should perhaps be undertaken, given the methodological differences between many of the available validation studies and the original CHADS2 derivation study.

Download full-text


Available from: Emma Wallace, Dec 19, 2013
52 Reads
  • Source
    • "Besides those, compared with CHADS 2 score, CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score further amplifies the predictive value of the presence of LATH in AF patients , especially for those at low and intermediate risk categories for stroke [22] [23] [24]. Although CHADS2 scores was found higher with the increasing of LATH/LASEC incidence [25], Keogh et al. [26] have suspected the efficacy of CHADS2 in predicting ischemic stroke across disparate risk stratification in a previous meta-analysis. "
    International Journal of Cardiology 02/2015; 184(1):540-542. DOI:10.1016/j.ijcard.2015.02.109 · 4.04 Impact Factor
  • Thrombosis and Haemostasis 09/2011; 106(5):753-4. DOI:10.1160/TH11-08-0580 · 4.98 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Worldwide, atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia, and its symptoms and sequelae cause an enormous burden to patients and health systems. Stroke is associated with the greatest mortality and morbidity in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The last decade has seen great advances in scientific and therapeutic approaches to AF. This review considers recent changes to stroke prevention, particularly focusing on new anticoagulants, antiarrhythmic drugs, and devices as well as future research directions. A semi-systematic literature review was performed using search terms "atrial fibrillation" and "novel therapy" within the PubMed database from 2005 to 2011. The area of greatest progress has been novel anticoagulants with direct thrombin inhibitors and factor Xa inhibitors. Dabigatran is the only novel agent currently licensed for use in AF patients, but with several trials of novel agents pending and favorable results so far, other agents are likely to follow. Novel antiarrhythmic drugs, left atrial appendage occlusion, and upstream therapies all represent potential new approaches but require further research. Novel anticoagulant and arrhythmic agents are changing treatment guidelines and choices available to both patients and clinicians for stroke prevention in AF, but bring new considerations and long-term data are required, because most patients will require lifelong therapy. Future research must incorporate patient values and preferences, because novel therapies can potentially give very different treatment options, which must be explained for patients to make informed choices.
    Stroke 11/2011; 42(11):3316-22. DOI:10.1161/STROKEAHA.111.617886 · 5.72 Impact Factor
Show more