The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 2--isolated valve surgery.
ABSTRACT Adjustment for case-mix is essential when using observational data to compare surgical techniques or providers. That is most often accomplished through the use of risk models that account for preoperative patient factors that may impact outcomes. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) uses such risk models to create risk-adjusted performance reports for participants in the STS National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (NCD). Although risk models were initially developed for coronary artery bypass surgery, similar models have now been developed for use with heart valve surgery, particularly as the proportion of such procedures has increased. The last published STS model for isolated valve surgery was based on data from 1994 to 1997 and did not include patients undergoing mitral valve repair. STS has developed new valve surgery models using contemporary data that include both valve repair as well as replacement. Expanding upon existing valve models, the new STS models include several nonfatal complications in addition to mortality.
Using STS data from 2002 to 2006, isolated valve surgery risk models were developed for operative mortality, permanent stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation (> 24 hours), deep sternal wound infection, reoperation for any reason, a major morbidity or mortality composite endpoint, prolonged postoperative length of stay, and short postoperative length of stay. The study population consisted of adult patients who underwent one of three types of valve surgery: isolated aortic valve replacement (n = 67,292), isolated mitral valve replacement (n = 21,229), or isolated mitral valve repair (n = 21,238). The population was divided into a 60% development sample and a 40% validation sample. After an initial empirical investigation, the three surgery groups were combined into a single logistic regression model with numerous interactions to allow the covariate effects to differ across these groups. Variables were selected based on a combination of automated stepwise selection and expert panel review.
Unadjusted operative mortality (in-hospital regardless of timing, and 30-day regardless of venue) for all isolated valve procedures was 3.4%, and unadjusted in-hospital morbidity rates ranged from 0.3% for deep sternal wound infection to 11.8% for prolonged ventilation. The number of predictors in each model ranged from 10 covariates in the sternal infection model to 24 covariates in the composite mortality plus morbidity model. Discrimination as measured by the c-index ranged from 0.639 for reoperation to 0.799 for mortality. When patients in the validation sample were grouped into 10 categories based on deciles of predicted risk, the average absolute difference between observed versus predicted events within these groups ranged from 0.06% for deep sternal wound infection to 1.06% for prolonged postoperative stay.
The new STS risk models for valve surgery include mitral valve repair as well as multiple endpoints other than mortality. Model coefficients are provided and an online risk calculator is publicly available from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons website.
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ABSTRACT: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest cardiac arrhythmia, becoming increasingly prevalent as the population ages. There is conflicting information around whether AF is associated with adverse outcomes after aortic valve replacement (AVR) from the few studies that have investigated this. We compared the characteristics and outcomes of patients undergoing AVR with their history of AF. Isolated AVR patients at Auckland City Hospital 2005-2012 were divided into those with and without preoperative AF for comparative analyses. Of 620 consecutive patients, 19.2% (119) had permanent or paroxysmal AF preoperatively. Patients with AF were significantly older (70.5 vs 63.4 years, P < 0.001) and were more likely to be New Zealand European (82.4 vs 68.1%, P = 0.004). They also had higher prevalence of NYHA class III-IV (55.4 vs 37.4%, P = 0.004), inpatient operation (62.1 vs 48.3%, P = 0.008), history of stroke (10.9 vs 5.0%, P = 0.031), lower creatinine clearance (73 vs 82, P = 0.001) and higher EuroSCORE II (5.2 vs 3.4%, P < 0.001). Operative mortality (6.7 vs 2.0%, P = 0.012) and composite morbidity (27.7 vs 16.5%, P = 0.006) were also higher in patients with AF. After adjusting for significant variables, preoperative AF remained an independent predictor of operative mortality with an odds ratio of 3.44 (95% confidence interval 1.29-9.13), composite morbidity of 1.79 (1.05-3.04) and a mortality during follow-up hazards ratio of 2.36 (1.44-3.87). AF was associated with several cardiovascular and cardiac surgery risk factors, but remained independently associated with short- and long-term mortality. AF should be incorporated into cardiac surgery risk models and surgical AF ablation may be considered with AVR.Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery 05/2014; · 1.11 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to compare outcome of patients with previous cardiac surgery undergoing transapical aortic valve implantation (Redo-TAVI) to those undergoing classic aortic valve replacement (Redo-AVR) by using propensity analysis.Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery 06/2014; 9(1):99. · 0.90 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation is an effective alternative to surgical treatment of severe aortic stenosis in patients who are inoperable or at high surgical risk. Objectives: To report the immediate and follow-up clinical and echocardiographic results of the initial experience of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Methods: From 2009 June to 2013 February, 112 patients underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation. Results: Mean age was 82.5 ± 6.5 years, and the logistic EuroSCORE was 23.6 ± 13.5. Procedural success was 84%. After the intervention, a reduction in the mean systolic gradient was observed (pre: 54.7 ± 15.3 vs. post: 11.7 ± 4.0 mmHg; p < 0.01). Cerebrovascular accidents occurred in 3.6%, vascular complications in 19% and permanent pacemaker was required by 13% of the patients. Thirty-day mortality and at follow-up of 16 ± 11 months was 14% and 8.9% respectively. The presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was the only predictor of mortality at 30 days and at follow-up. During follow up, aortic valve area and mean systolic gradient did not change significantly. Conclusions: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation is an effective and safe procedure for the treatment of aortic stenosis in high-surgical risk or inoperable patients. The presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was the only independent predictor of mortality identified both in the first month post-intervention and at follow-up.Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia. 04/2014; 102(4):336-344.