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Un modelo para la valuación de intangibles. Aplicación a las franquicias de la industria restaurantera en México

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ABSTRACT La presente Tesis Doctoral se enmarca dentro del campo de la valoración de empresas, aplicando la metodología de valoración analógica a las empresas franquiciadas en el sector de la hostelería en México. El principal objetivo es el desarrollo de un modelo de valoración para el conjunto de las empresas franquiciadas restauranteras que operan en todo el país, con el fin de brindar a los empresarios de este modelo de negocios, una herramienta para la estimación del valor comercial y facilitar la toma de decisiones relacionadas con este valor. Para ello se analizó en primer lugar el modelo de franquicia existente en México. A continuación se analizaron los distintos métodos de valoración basados en la información contable de las empresas y la tasación, así como los relacionados con los resultados económicos de las empresas, basándose en la bibliografía existente sobre el tema. Se ha utilizado fuente de información primaria, para lo cual se llevó a cabo un exhaustivo estudio de mercado identificando un total de 160 franquicias pertenecientes a la industria restaurantera en México. Se realizó una encuesta con el fin de obtener información de cada una de ellas, relativa a parámetros económicos u otros relacionados. En total, se conformó una base de datos con 18 variables cualitativas y 16 cuantitativas, tales como: Inversión inicial (Miles de USD$), % de Regalías, % de aportación a publicidad, tiempo promedio de retorno de la inversión en meses, años en el mercado, años de franquiciar, unidades totales 2006, Tasa de crecimiento, promedio de ventas anuales, promedio de costos de venta, promedio de utilidades anuales, tasa interna de retorno, valor actual neto, Índice del valor actual neto y Razón beneficio costo. El valor de las franquicias era: Log Valor de la franquicia= 6.671 + .0000299 rn+ 0.017 am +0.043af + 0.458 amf+ 0.002 succ_04 ¿ 0.27 ret +0.0000310eua1 +0.901 rri Los resultados del modelo de regresión lineal múltiple, planteado para calcular el valor de mercado buscado, es estadísticamente bueno, ya que se utilizan las herramientas adecuadas para que la información que se maneja tenga rangos de confianza adecuados; también vemos que los resultados arrojan dispersión en los datos, las cuales son adecuadas, y que desde el punto de vista económico, los resultados también son convenientes y lógicos para tener estimaciones útiles.

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