Article

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections

School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, SP, Brazil.
Physics of Life Reviews (Impact Factor: 9.48). 01/2011; 8(2):169-99. DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2011.01.001
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

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    • "There is a growing need to understand the critical parameters in the transmission and persistence of these diseases and to develop effective strategies for prevention and control. There are many models for dengue in the literature investigating different aspects of its spread and behavior (Focks et al. (1995), Ferguson et al. (1999), Favier et al. (2006)) from standard mosquito-borne disease models (Esteva and Vargas (1998)) to models incorporating space (Chowell et al., 2007), seasonality and temperature dependence (Hartley et al., 2002; Massad et al., 2011), crossimmunity with multiple strains (Wearing and Rohani, 2006; Feng and Velasco-Hernandez, 1997; Adams et al., 2006), and effectiveness of control measures (Chao et al., 2012). For the purposes of this study, we will restrict our model to one representative dengue serotype and to models without explicit seasonality. "
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    • "There is a growing need to understand the critical parameters in the transmission and persistence of these diseases and to develop effective strategies for prevention and control. There are many models for dengue in the literature investigating different aspects of its spread and behavior (Focks et al. (1995), Ferguson et al. (1999), Favier et al. (2006)) from standard mosquito-borne disease models (Esteva and Vargas (1998)) to models incorporating space (Chowell et al., 2007), seasonality and temperature dependence (Hartley et al., 2002; Massad et al., 2011), crossimmunity with multiple strains (Wearing and Rohani, 2006; Feng and Velasco-Hernandez, 1997; Adams et al., 2006), and effectiveness of control measures (Chao et al., 2012). For the purposes of this study, we will restrict our model to one representative dengue serotype and to models without explicit seasonality. "
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    • "and í µí± í µí±† (í µí±¡) = (í µí±‘ 1 − í µí±‘ 2 sin(2í µí¼‹í µí±“í µí±¡ + í µí¼™)) is a factor mimicking seasonal influences in the mosquito population [5] [24]. The seasonal influence was considered in another paper [21]. "
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