Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections

School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, SP, Brazil.
Physics of Life Reviews (Impact Factor: 9.48). 01/2011; 8(2):169-99. DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2011.01.001
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

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    ABSTRACT: pp. 954-960. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7.
    19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand; 12/2011
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    ABSTRACT: We propose an equilibrium analysis of a dynamical model of yellow fever transmission in the presence of a vaccine. The model considers both human and vector populations. We found thresholds parameters that affect the development of the disease and the infectious status of the human population in the presence of a vaccine whose protection may wane over time. In particular, we derived a threshold vaccination rate, above which the disease would be eradicated from the human population. We show that if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is greater than a given threshold, then the disease is naturally (without intervention) eradicated from the population. In contrast, if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is less than that threshold, then the disease is eradicated from the populations only when the growing rate of humans is less than another threshold; otherwise, the disease is eradicated only if the reproduction number of the infection after vaccination is less than 1. When this reproduction number is greater than 1, the disease will be eradicated from the human population if the vaccination rate is greater than a given threshold; otherwise, the disease will establish itself among humans, reaching a stable endemic equilibrium. The analysis presented in this paper can be useful, both to the better understanding of the disease dynamics and also for the planning of vaccination strategies.
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