Violent behavior by general psychiatric patients in Sweden – validation of Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) software

Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Psychiatry Research (Impact Factor: 2.47). 06/2011; 188(1):161-5. DOI: 10.1016/j.psychres.2010.12.021
Source: PubMed


The objectives of the study are to report the 20-week base rate of violent behaviour in the community among a general psychiatric patient population from Stockholm and to establish the validity of a violence risk assessment software program, Classification of Violence Risk (COVR), in a European setting. Three hundred and thirty one patients at two psychiatric hospitals in Stockholm were interviewed upon discharge. Telephone interviews with the patients and collaterals were conducted 10 and 20 weeks later. The violent behaviour was also measured through a national criminal register. The allocation of patients into different risk groups according to COVR software was compared with the occurrence of actual acts of violence during the follow-up. The base rate of violent behaviour was 5.7% and a ROC-analysis showed that the AUC for COVR was 0.77. Since there were few patients in the high risk groups, the 95% confidence interval for the proportion of violent patients was wide. The base rate of violent behaviour is relatively low in Sweden and prediction is therefore difficult. The predictive validity of COVR software is comparable to other risk assessment tools.

Download full-text


Available from: Joakim Sturup,
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Violence risk assessment instruments are mainly based on historical and clinical risk factors. Biological factors have been related to violent behaviour but hardly used in risk assessment. A recent study indicated that both low total cholesterol (TC) and the patients' own estimates about their risk of future violent behaviour, the Self-report Risk Scale (SRS), significantly predicted violent behaviour during hospital stay and the first 3 months after discharge from an acute psychiatric department. Our aim was to investigate whether combining three methods, a screening instrument for risk of violence (V-RISK-10), low TC and the SRS, into one multifaceted risk assessment model may enhance predictive validity. This prospective naturalistic study involved 134 of all (489) acutely admitted patients to a general psychiatric hospital during 1 year. Low TC, SRS and V-RISK-10 at admission were prospectively compared with recorded violence during hospital stay and the first 3 months after discharge. The multifaceted risk assessment model yielded a significant increase in explained variance beyond that of the V-RISK-10. AUC values were higher, but differences were not significant. The biopsychosocial approach to violence risk assessment seems promising, but further studies are needed to test the feasibility and predictive validity of multifaceted models.
    Psychiatry Research 05/2012; 200(2-3). DOI:10.1016/j.psychres.2012.04.038 · 2.47 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: ACCESSIBLE SUMMARY: Research on trends in assaults and seclusion over time in developing countries such as South Africa is scant. Here, we assessed trends in assaults and seclusion, stratified by gender, at the acute admission wards in one psychiatric facility over a 5-year period. The results of this study show that continuous monitoring of assaults and seclusions is important to improve quality of care. ABSTRACT: In developing countries such as South Africa, not much is known about the prevalence of assaults and seclusion occurring in mental health wards over time. Here, we describe a 5-year trend in assaults and seclusions, stratified by gender, at Stikland Hospital, South Africa. A retrospective review of clinical records of patients admitted to the acute psychiatric admission wards at Stikland and involved in assault and secluded was undertaken between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2010. Data on the number of patient and staff assaults as well as seclusions, gender, age, marital status, level of education, level of income, duration of hospital admission and primary psychiatric diagnosis were collected. Significantly (P < 0.01) more men than women engaged in patient assaults, while significantly (P < 0.01) more men were secluded than women. On a monthly basis, the number of gender-stratified patient assaults and seclusions significantly increased (P < 0.01) throughout the study period. In conclusion, we show here that gender had a significant effect on both patient assault and seclusion numbers, which increased towards the end of the study period. Monitoring of these events is therefore important to continuously improve quality of care.
    Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing 09/2012; 20(8). DOI:10.1111/jpm.12006 · 0.84 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Behavioral Sciences & the Law 02/2013; 31(1):55-73. DOI:10.1002/bsl.2053 · 0.96 Impact Factor
Show more