A prediction rule for estimating pancreatic cancer risk in chronic pancreatitis patients with focal pancreatic mass lesions with prior negative EUS-FNA cytology
ABSTRACT Considerable false-negative endoscopic ultrasound guided fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) findings exist in chronic pancreatitis patients with focal pancreatic mass lesions. Our aim was to develop a prediction rule to stratify risk for pancreatic cancer in chronic pancreatitis patients with focal pancreatic mass lesions with prior negative EUS-FNA cytology.
A total of 138 eligible consecutive patients were identified from three hospitals between January 2000 and May 2008. A final diagnosis of pancreatic mass lesions was confirmed histologically or verified by a follow-up of at least 12 months. A prediction rule was developed from a logistic regression model by using a regression coefficient-based scoring method, and then internally validated by using bootstrapping.
The rate of pancreatic cancer in the cohort was 18.1%. The prediction rule, which was scored from 0 to 10 points, comprised five variables: sex, mass location, mass number, direct bilirubin, and CA 19-9. Among the 87.7% of patients with low-risk scores (≤ 3), the risk of pancreatic cancer was 13.2%; by comparison, this risk was 52.9% (p < 0.001) among the 12.3% of patients with high-risk scores (> 3). If further invasive tests were used for patients with high risk, 36% of patients with pancreatic cancer would not be missed. The prediction rule had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.72) and calibration (p = 0.96).
The prediction rule can provide available risk stratification for pancreatic cancer in chronic pancreatitis patients with focal mass lesions with prior negative EUS-FNA cytology. Application of risk stratification may improve clinical decision making.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of pancreatic tumors is often complicated because of sampling and interpretive challenges. The current study was performed to determine the rates, types, and causes of diagnostic discrepancies. METHODS: The authors retrospectively reviewed cytology cases from 2004 to 2010 using matched surgical resection cases as the gold standard. RESULTS: A total of 733 cases were divided into 3 categories: 1) positive or suspicious (290 cases); 2) negative or atypical (403 cases); and 3) unsatisfactory (40 cases). Of these cases, 101 fine-needle aspiration (FNA) cases had matched surgical resections including 58 positive diagnoses, 39 negative diagnoses, and 4 unsatisfactory diagnoses. All 19 discrepant cases represented false-negative diagnoses without any false-positive cases noted, which included 2 cases with interpretive errors (10%) and 17 cases with sampling errors (90%). All matched cytology cases were divided into 5 subgroups based on the type of lesion or type of error and were analyzed for sensitivity and specificity. The sampling error rate in cystic lesions (8 of 24; 33%) was significantly higher than that in solid lesions (9 of 73; 12%). The false-negative rate in the interpretive error group (3%) was significantly lower than that in the sampling error group (23%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the current study confirm that pancreatic endoscopic ultrasound-guided FNA diagnosis has a very low false-positive rate but a relatively high false-negative rate using matched surgical resections as the gold standard. The major cause of a false-negative cytology diagnosis is sampling error and the rate of sampling error in cystic lesions is significantly higher than that in solid lesions. Cancer (Cancer Cytopathol) 2013. © 2013 American Cancer Society.Cancer Cytopathology 08/2013; 121(8). DOI:10.1002/cncy.21299 · 3.81 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Background: A number of clinicopathologic factors have been found to be associated with pathological lymph node metastasis (pLNM) in rectal cancer; however, most of them can only be identified by expensive high resolution imaging or obtained after surgical treatment. Just like the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores which have been widely used in clinical practice, our study was designed to assess the pre-operative factors which could be obtained easily to predict intra-operative pLNM in rectal cancer. Methods: A cohort of 469 patients who were treated at our hospital in the period from January 2003 to June 2011, and with a pathologically hospital discharge diagnosis of rectal cancer, were included. Clinical, laboratory and pathologic parameters were analyzed. A multivariate unconditional logistic regression model, areas under the curve (AUC), the Kaplan-Meier method (log-rank test) and the Cox regression model were used. Results: Of the 469 patients, 231 were diagnosed with pLNM (49.3%). Four variables were associated with pLNM by multivariate logistic analysis, age<60 yr (OR=1.819; 95% CI, 1.231-2.687; P=0.003), presence of abdominal pain or discomfort (OR=1.637; 95% CI, 1.052-2.547; P=0.029), absence of allergic history (OR=1.879; 95% CI, 1.041-3.392; P=0.036), and direct bilirubin≥2.60 μmol/L (OR=1.540; 95% CI, 1.054-2.250; P=0.026). The combination of all 4 variables had the highest sensitivity (98.7%) for diagnostic performance. In addition, age<60 yr and direct bilirubin≥2.60 μmol/L were found to be associated with prognosis. Conclusion: Age, abdominal pain or discomfort, allergic history and direct bilirubin were associated with pLNM, which may be helpful for preoperative selection.Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention: APJCP 11/2013; 14(11):6293-9. DOI:10.7314/APJCP.2013.14.11.6293 · 2.51 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to assess how atypical diagnostic category (ADC) is followed up, its outcomes, and the predictors that are associated with subsequent diagnosis of neoplasm/malignancy. We reviewed pancreatic endoscopic ultrasound fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA) with ADC and compared the rate of detection of neoplasms after a repeat FNA, a biopsy/resection, or a clinical follow-up following ADC. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with the diagnosis of a neoplastic or a malignant lesion following ADC. Predictive probability for each case was calculated on the basis of the significant predictors, and whether it improved diagnostic performance was assessed. Of 3832 cases that received pancreatic EUS-FNAs, 187 (4.9%) were ADC. A total of 93 neoplasms (55%), including 61 carcinomas (36%), were detected after an atypical cytologic diagnosis. Similar rates of detecting neoplasms were observed after repeat FNA or biopsy/resection but higher than after clinical follow-up. The presence of a mass, history of alcohol use, and absence of a history of pancreatitis were significant predictors of a higher rate of diagnosis of neoplasm. Weight loss and bile flow obstruction were more likely to be associated with higher rates of carcinoma. Predictive probability demonstrated a wide range of risk and changed the ambiguous diagnosis to informative in 30% of cases. ADC of pancreas is associated with a high risk of benign and malignant neoplasms regardless of the method of follow-up. The presences of a mass, alcohol use, and absence of a history of pancreatitis are significant predictors of a diagnosis of neoplasm, whereas weight loss and bile duct obstruction are significant predictors of ductal carcinoma following an ADC. Cancer (Cancer Cytopathol) 2013;. © 2013 American Cancer Society.Cancer Cytopathology 06/2014; 122(6). DOI:10.1002/cncy.21389 · 3.81 Impact Factor