Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
ABSTRACT Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.
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Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay
and the Option to Abandon a Project
?
Nicoleta Vintilã
Candidate Ph.D. Lecturer
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest
Abstract. Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment
decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial
decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates
strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an
analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of
pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics
and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to
delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.
Key words: capital budgeting; real options; managerial flexibility, timing options; exit options.
?
Introduction
Traditional approaches to capital budgeting, such as
discounted cash-flows (from now on DCF), cannot capture
entirely the project value, for different reasons: it is
assumed that investment decision is irreversible,
interactions between today decisions and future decisions
are not considered, and investment in assets seems to be a
passive one (management doesn’t interfere during the
life of the project).
Managerial flexibility generates supplementary value
for an investment opportunity because of managerial
capacity to respond when new information arises, while
the project is operated. Investment in real assets includes a
set of real options that management can exercise in order
to increase assets value (under favorable circumstances) or
limit loses (under unfavorable situations).
Managerial flexibility in decision-making process
introduces an asymmetry for probability distribution of
net present value (from now on NPV) for a project. An
investment opportunity value is dependent on future
uncertain events, so therefore, it will be greater than
forecasted value in the situation of passive management.
From this perspective, a project has a standard value,
determined through traditional techniques (DCF, which
does not catch adaptability and strategic value), but also
a supplementary value, coming from operational and
strategic real options held by an active management.
Decision trees are related with real option approach
by recognizing their existence, but investment value is
calculated as an average of expected cash flows (positive
or negative) weighted with probabilities associated with
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Theoretical and Applied Economics
each state. Real option appraisal eliminates potential
loses by abandoning the project when circumstances
are unfavorable (negative cash flows become zero) and
adjust discount rate to reflect the new level of risk.
Real options represent an integrated solution used
under uncertainty, by transposing the theory of financial
options to valuation of real assets, projects or even
companies, in an uncertain and dynamic environment,
where taking decisions must be a flexible process.
Specific features of real options
Unlike financial options, real options have as underlying
asset a real asset, which value is given by discounted cash-
flows plus the value of any other options associated with the
ownership of that real asset (Bruun, Bason, 2001, p. 1).
Real options are defined and valued by analogy with
financial options, but they have some specific features
(Trigeorgis,1996, pp. 127-129) that make distinction
between the two categories: not exclusively owned by
any investor (to assure the exclusive rights for a project,
someone must identify and use the competitive
advantages and raise substantial barriers to entry for other
competitors); nontradable securities (there are no
financial markets where these rights could be traded, the
only two alternatives being: exercising option or giving
up exercising); preemption for the investor who undertake
the project, despite that at the beginning the real option
was jointly held by all firms involved in that industry;
option compoundness, consisting of interdependencies
inside a project or between projects, depending on
exercising other options or taking other projects.
Black and Scholes (1973, pp. 637-657) identified the
elements affecting the theoretical price of an option in their
formula: stock price (S), exercise price (E), time to expiration
(t), variance of returns (σ) and risk free rate (r). Afterwards,
Merton (1973, pp. 141-183) completed the Black & Scholes
formula (from now on BS) with the sixth element,
dividends (δ). Models assessing financial options could be
extended for real options because of the analogy between
financial and real options, concerning the elements
influencing their value (Figure 1)(1).
Traditional methods like DCF and NPV cannot catch
the flexibility because they focus only on two
components of value creation: discounted payoffs and
investment cost. Real options capture the influence of all
six elements described before. That means a reactive
management, consisting of response from the managerial
team (through decisions they take) to the cumulated
information during operating the investment, under
uncertainty.
The proactive management of flexibility (Leslie,
Michaels, 1997, pp. 12-14) assumes, besides identifying
the real options embedded in a project, fairly appraising,
exercising them to seize the opportunities and taking
decisions for increasing their value, for maximizing
project value and shareholders’ wealth as well.
A prospective investor (the owner of a real option)
cannot control all the components of value creation
because of internal or external constraints (such as
technical, marketing, competition). Maximizing option
price can be obtained by focusing on those elements that
indeed can be influenced and confer competitive
advantage, keeping in mind the constraints.
Difficulties in using financial options pricing
models for real options valuation
There are certain limits for using financial options
pricing models for real options because the first category
has standard components, which could be easily identified
(part of them are clearly specified - maturity, exercise
price, or can be observed in the market - price of
underlying asset, risk free rate), while the second category
do not have such standardization and managerial
flexibility determine their pattern. Some of these potential
inconveniences, along with solutions proposed in
literature on real options are synthetically presented
further on (Bruun, Bason, 2001).
Risk neutrality
Also Cox, Ross & Rubinstein (from now on CRR)
binomial model and BS model make the assumption that
investor creates a replicating portfolio with constant
underlying asset price (S), which is risk neutral for an
instant of time. A new value for S means changing
portfolio structure because hedging ratio is not the same
anymore.
Real assets are not frequently traded in a specific market
and their price is difficult to observe and is almost
impossible to form a replicating portfolio. Under these
circumstances, the result of risk neutral valuation is not
Figure 1. Analogy between financial options and real options
Financial option (CALL or PUT) Variable Real option (investment opportunity)
Stock price
S
Discounted cash-flows for the project
Exercise price
E
Capital expenditure
Period of time that exercise decision may
be deferred
Time value of money
Time to expiration
t
Risk free rate
r
Variance of returns
σ σ
Risk for assets of the project
Lose of value by deferring investment
decision
Dividend yield
δ δ
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Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
applicable anymore and it is not possible to use risk free
rate as discount rate.
Lander and Pinches (1998, pp. 537-567) proposed
either usage of discount factor corresponding to a traded
security with similar risk pattern like underlying asset, or
estimation of discount factor by applying an asset pricing
model such as CAPM.
The underlying asset
Any investor does not exclusively own this. Option
price depends on the level of competition in that
industry and on the respond of competitors to new
challenges. A study by Smit and Ankum (1993, pp. 241-
250) concluded that high growth rates for an industry
would bring new competitors, so the rate of return will
be closer to the cost of capital and the value of held
option will be smaller.
The value of underlying asset is represented by
present value of projected cash flows and is calculated
from NPV for a project (the so-called static or standard
value).
Willner (1995) built a model with discontinuous
changes in the value of underlying asset:
P(t) = P(0) × eµ×t ×
tQ×
−1
λ
λ
The model is working under certain assumptions:
the value of underlying asset increases with a
constant exponential rate, as a result of value
creation through research activity (except the
occasional up jumps owing to new discoveries and
down jumps generated by the entry of new
competitors on the market);
the up jumps will not bring the expected payoffs
because the new discoveries will attract more
competitors and some loses occur from this
situation; decrease in value can be projected from
historical data for similar projects;
the new discoveries are not correlated with market
or with entire economy, and investors are not
confronted with systematic risk;
the investment cost (exercise price) is fixed.
The model may be successfully used for assessing
multistage projects or start-up ventures.
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The exercise price
This is not fixed (it is not established from the very
beginning) and do not follow a deterministic process. It
should be found a mutual probability distribution for
value of underlying asset and exercise price to determine
the level and direction of correlation between the two
variables.
Schwartz ºi Moon (2000) developed a model with a
stochastic process for the exercise price. The level of
uncertainty is conversely proportional with investment
level, which means that uncertainty about initial cost
could be eliminated only by undertaking the project.
Pindyck (1993) identified two sources of uncertainty
about investment cost: a technological one, eliminated
only in the moment when the decision to invest is taken,
and an economic one (related with the changes in costs of
entries for the project, such as materials and labour). The
author considered a stochastic evolution for investment
cost, given by the following equation:
dK = -Idt + g(I, K)dz,
which means that exercise price (K) decreases as
investment proceeds and fluctuates along with the two
sources of uncertainty (technical and cost of entries for
the project).
Time to maturity
Exercise date for real options is not a priori specified
and it is uncertain because of exogenous factors, such as
competition or barriers to entry. Optimal exercise time
depends on various elements:
the greater the technological uncertainty, the
greater the uncertainty concerning exercise
date;
the stronger the competition and the weaker the
barriers to entry for an industry, the sooner the
exercising of the option (to take advantage on
preemption), although a delay for the project has
some benefits, because in the mean time
suplimentary information occures;
the patents or licences owned by investor protect
him against competition and permit him not to
hurry with exercising the option.
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Risk free rate
The discount rate is the rate of return for a riskless
security, with the same maturity as the real option. But
exercise date for the option is uncertain, so is quite
difficult to identify the appropriate discount factor. More
than that, rate of return is not constant over time. The
solution is similar with previous cases: rather considering
a stochastic evolution for discount rate than a
deterministic one.
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The volatility of the underlying asset
Volatility is the only element not directly observable
for financial options and it has to be estimated for the
entire period until maturity. If the underlying asset is
traded, the historical variance is extrapolated for future
periods. If the underlying asset is not traded (the case of
real options), volatility is difficult to appraise. Luehrman
(1998) suggested some alternative solutions. First, the
observed risk for a financial market index could be used
as a proxy for the project risk (adjusted with the level of
individual, specific risk). Second, the volatility could be
estimated from historical data regarding similar projects
from related industries. Third, volatility could be obtained
from probability distribution of projected cash flows,
when applying Monte Carlo simulation.
Another problem is that volatility is not constant over
long periods, but this inconvenient could be eliminated
by applying a GARCH model, if possible.
The dividend yield
It is represented by lose of cash flows until maturity of
the real option (for example, by deferring the project).
Pricing real options in capital budgeting - the
option to delay and the option to abandon a
project
A various range of real options are identified and used
as powerful instruments in capital budgeting: timing
options assume that investor may postpone the investment
decision until specific information arise and help him to
understand, even partly, the uncertainty connected with
the analyzed project; staging options are very useful for
assessing multistage projects, when uncertainty is not
resolved over time and investor must undertake the project
even in small increments, in order to learn about cost pattern
and profitability of the project; exit (abandon) options
allow investor to avoid or at least reduce loses if bad
circumstances appear, by turning negative cash-flows into
null payoffs; operating options enable the firm to organize
operations for adjusting its processes to business
environment and react to economic changes by scaling up
to enhance earnings or scaling down to reduce damages,
depending on given circumstances; flexibility options
consist of purchasing or building a flexible production
capacity or asset, so that it has two or more different uses,
depending on market conditions; growth options are
usually associated with strategic investments, which
sometimes have negative NPV, but are indispensable for
implementing following projects with substantial positive
NPV, greater (in module) than loses from the initial project.
The objective of this section is to explain in detail the
working mechanism and asses two types of real options
from the categories discussed above, namely the option
to delay and the option to abandon a project, with wide
applications in capital budgeting.
Pricing the option to delay a project
On the one hand, the possibility of deferring a project
is significantly valuable because investor needs more time
to learn about uncertain variables of the project. On the
other hand, this value is diminished with the lost cash
flows for period that investment was deferred. So the
option is exercised only if potential earnings from delay
exceed loses in such a situation.
Projects with negative NPV (initially rejected from
the point of view of traditional investment analysis) could
turn to positive NPV in the future. Decision to postpone a
project is equivalent to holding a CALL option, which
provides the right, but not the obligation, to undertake
the project sometimes in the future, when the holder
decides to do so. Even profitable projects from the very
beginning (with positive NPV) acquire a plus of value by
delay of the project, if conditions related to competition,
barriers to entry or exclusive rights for a product or
technology allow that.
Pricing an option to delay a project requires
identification of the variables (Damodaran, 2002) in the
model:
underlying asset - is represented by the project
itself; its value (S) is calculated with DCF method;
exercise price - is the cost of implementing the
project; the model is working under assumption
that this is constant in real terms and it is affected
only by inflation; its evolution is deterministic,
but not stochastic;
time to maturity - is established as the period of
time that investor enjoy of exclusivity for the
analyzed project or at least has an important
competitive advantage which allow him deferring
the project without risking its achievement by
another firm;
risk free rate - is represented by the expected rate
of return for a riskless security (treasury bill or
treasury bond), with the same maturity with real
option;
volatility of the underlying asset - it appears
because of the errors associated with estimation of
the financial cash-flows and the value of
underlying asset and it is the most difficult element
to appraise because the underlying asset is not
traded. Monte Carlo simulation is used for
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Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
assessing variance, because the distribution of
probability for the components of cash flows (size
of the market, market share) is defined and random
numbers (normally distributed, for example) are
generated for the specification errors of the
variables in the model. Different scenarios for
expected DCF result from here. Rolling a great
number of simulations (it is recommended to do at
least 3,000 iterations), the standard deviation of
DCF is obtained, and then it is used as a proxy for
volatility of underlying asset in the option pricing
model.
dividend yield - delay of investment generates lose
of cash-flows for each year. There are two
situations:
–if annual cash-flows are evenly distributed in
the period until maturity of the option (n years),
the lost value for the first year is 1/n and it
increases with time (1/(n-1) in the second year,
1/(n-2) in the third year and so on);
– if annual cash-flows are not evenly distributed,
the cost of postpone the project with one year
is given by the following formula:
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Cost of delay = (PV of CF in the future –
– PV of CF at the current moment) / PV of CF at the current moment
After identifying all these six elements, all we need is
to apply a pricing option model (BS or CRR), but also
keep in mind the difficulties emphasized in the previous
section.
Users prefer BS model because it consists in a simple
formula:
CALL option price =
××
=
)()(
21
dNeEdNeS
trt
××−
×−× −δ
PUT option price =
×−
=
)()(
21
dNeEdNeS
trt
−××+−×
×−×−δ
where:
t
tr
σ
ES
d
×
××+−+
=
σδ
]21)[()ln(
2
1
and
tdd
probability of normal distribution.
×−=
σ
12
and N(d) represents the cumulated
Binomial model requires laborious calculus because
valuation proceeds iteratively backwards, from the last
period to the current time moment (the more periods until
option maturity, the more complex the determination of
option price).
More than that, binomial model considers only a
finite number of periods (it is a model in discreet time).
It leads, at limit, to BS model (in continuous time), which
unlike the first one, assumes that time to maturity is
divided into an infinite number of periods. That is why
the value derived from BS formula is always smaller
than value provided by binomial model (but close to it).
To apply CRR model, when the values of the six
variables for BS model are known, Damodaran proposes
two formulas(2):
u (the “up” factor) =
dtrdt
e
×−+×
) 2/(
2
σσ
d (the “down” factor) =
where dt = 1/number of periods from a year, until maturity.
dtrdt
e
×−+×−
) 2/(
2
σσ
We stressed before that option value is reducing as
time passes (the loss in value measured by dividend yield
is enhancing). Repeating the calculus for delay option
price, an equilibrium point can be determined, where
strategic NPV (including option premium) decreased and
became equal to standard NPV. This is the moment for
exercising the option (by investing), only if, of course,
NPV is positive. Beyond this point, deferring does not
create value anymore, but destroy part of it. Therefore,
the real duration of delay option is always shorter than
the initially projected one (because of competition,
appearance of similar products).
Pricing the option to abandon a project
The possibility to renounce to a project under
unfavourable circumstances represents, in fact, another
real option for investor. The option to abandon (a PUT
option this time) will be exercised if DCF generated
subsequently by the project are even negative or positive,
but inferior to salvage value gained after project
abandonment.
Value of the underlying asset is represented again by
estimated DCF and volatility could be assessing with the
same tools as before (similar traded companies from
industry, simulations). Option maturity is the period for
adopting abandonment decision and it may coincide with
time remaining for operating the project.
Exercise price is the salvage value obtained from
abandonment of investment, estimated at the current
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moment of time. Pricing model is applied under the
hypothesis that real assets do not depreciate (salvage value
is fixed over time). Lose of value is quantified through
dividend yield and it is determined(3) as: δ = 1/period
remaining from the project life.
The actual value from abandonment may be inferior
to the estimated one, from different reasons: there is not
demand for such a technology or an organized
second-hand market is not operational.
Until now, we implicitly supposed that liquidation
value is positive. There are situations when from
abandonment does not result something or worse, there is
a cost to cover for. In this case, the investor will renounce
to the project only if loses from still operating the project
are bigger (in absolute value) than the costs implied by
liquidation procedure.
The price of option to abandon a project increases if
investor builds a flexible operational structure from the
very beginning, which allows him to take easier the
decision concerning abandonment. This objective can
be accomplished by employing labor for limited time, by
renting or taking in leasing the fixed assets, by choosing
a more expensive, but flexible technology.
Case study: pricing of real options - option
to delay and option to abandon a project
Investment presentation and assumptions(4)
A construction company from Bucharest analyses
the opportunity to invest in a project for producing
metallic tiles for roofs (a green field project). There will
be obtained two types of products (A and B), with
different technical features. The firm will install an
annual production capacity of about 1,500 thousands
pieces (type A) and 500 thousands pieces (type B). The
life of the proposed project is ten years (2007 - 2016).
The cost required by implementing the project is 3,670
thousands USD, consisting of land, buildings and
technology, and it will be entirely financed with equity
capital. Salvage value, estimated for the end of
exploitation period of investment (including tax
shields), is 1,485 thousands USD.
A rigorous and detailed analysis of the project
(financial analysis of the company, investment cost,
European and Romanian market of metallic tiles and
perspectives for growth rates, market share, sale prices,
cost components, forecasted inflation rate, fiscal
implications, discount rate) was performed before and it
doesn’t make the object of this study. That’s why the
hypothesis for assessing free cash-flows are concisely
presented, to create the basis for identifying and pricing
real options associated with this investment. Estimation
of free cash flows is done in American dollars (USD)
because some cost elements are specified in USD.
Value of sales for the two categories of products, on
internal market, is of approximately 4,000 thousands
USD. The annual growth rate, in real terms, is estimated
to 20-22% for the first two years, 10% for the next four
years, respectively 1-2% for the last four years. This
foreseeing represents the combined results of estimations
for market size (as quantity) and unit sale prices (in real
terms) for the two categories of products, for the entire
life of the project. The firm wants to achieve a market
share of 20-30% in the first two years, following an
increasing of this percent with ten percentage points
every year, until production capacity is completely
utilized (according to forecasting, this event will occur
in the sixth year of operating).
The expenditures were appraised under subsequent
assumptions: unit variable cost represents 60% of turnover
(in the first two years), then it enhances annually with
two percentage points until it reaches 70%, which is kept
constant afterwards; fixed costs (others than amortization)
are established to a level of 80 thousands USD (in real
terms) and amortization is about 166 thousands USD (in
nominal terms).
Projected inflation rate is 2% per year (for USD) and
nominal discount rate is 18.5%. There are also used in
calculations a corporate income tax rate of 16% and an
average of 30 days for assessing working capital investment.
Investment ratios under certainty
Keeping in mind the assumptions described in the
previous subsection, we have estimated annual turnover
and operational expenses (in nominal terms), then financial
margins. It was also taken into account the tax shields
provided by the recover of financial loses from the first
year in the following years (when profits are obtained).
Finally, nominal free cash flows were appraised and
discounted with nominal cost of capital (in fact, a cost of
equity capital). The result is an NPV of 1,297 thousands
USD. Profitability index is greater than one (1.34),
indicating that the investor recovered all expenses and
gained a net discounted profit of 34% from invested
capital. Internal rate of return is 25% and exceeds the
cost of capital (18.5%). The discounted payback period
is about 4.5 years.
All these calculations lead to conclusion that investor
must accept the analyzed project and they are exhibited
in Table 1.
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Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
Pricing the option to delay the project
The sensitivity analysis presumes that there are certain
intervals for possible values taken by variables from free
cash-flows model, and thus investment analysis is
transposed in an uncertain environment. Strong arguments
(related with projected trend for construction and
construction materials market, competition level,
evolution of imports and currency exchange rate, using
similar products in consumption, fiscal policy regarding
corporate income tax, firm policies for marketing,
employment and wage system, and evolution of utilities
costs) help us to establish the inferior and the superior
limits for these intervals. The new values for NPV of the
project are pictured in Table 2 and they are graphically
illustrated in Figure 2.
Sensitivity analysis – NVP
Table 2
- thousands USD -
30%
Variable
Market size
Market share
Unit sale price (real terms)
Unit variable cost (real terms)
Fixed expences (real terms)
Days for working capital
-50%
-30%
-20%
-10%
921.4 1,122.7 1,297.3 1,440.8 1,570.9 1,700.2
921.4 1,122.7 1,297.3 1,440.8 1,570.9 1,700.2 1,829.5 2,084.3
–177.4
1,792.4 1,297.3
1,362.1 1,329.7 1,313.5 1,297.3 1,281.0 1,264.8 1,248.6 1,232.4
1,434.6 1,379.7 1,352.2 1,324.7 1,311.0 1,297.3 1,283.5 1,269.8 1,256.0 1,242.3 1,214.8 1,159.9
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
50%
–48.1
451.5
561.1 1,297.3 2,033.4
802.1
307.0 –189.7
Investment ratios for the project under certainty
Table 1
- thousands USD -
2015
2016
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2017
FCF=NOPAT+Amo–∆Imo–∆WorkCap
–3,777.6
446.8
575.6
779.5 1,059.7 1,366.0 1,860.9 1,761.3 1,735.7 1,695.0 3,681.5
Cost of capital (nominal)
Discount factor
18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5%
118.5% 140.4% 166.4% 197.2% 233.7% 276.9% 328.1% 388.8% 460.7% 546.0% 647.0%
DCF
5,074.84
377.1
409.9
468.4
537.4
584.6
672.1
536.8
446.4
367.9
674.3
NPV 1,297.3
IRR 25.0%
Profitability index 1.34
Discounted payback period 4.5 years
PV of future CF (delay of the project)
4,563.55
420.9
373.3
445.4
510.5
579.9
573,4
446,4
367.9
304.5
541.3
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Theoretical and Applied Economics
It is easy to notice that the project is very sensitive to
little changes for unit sale price, with a great variance of
the results. A decrease for price of only 9% means negative
NPV. This situation is possible to achieve, because the
value is placed inside the interval of variation, which is
(-10%, +5%). A negative NPV is also obtained for a fall of
30% in internal market size or in market share of the new
firm. Treated independently, the two variables induce
the same effect, because their product represents the
quantity sold by the company. The value of 30% is even
the inferior limit for market share interval (-30%, +30%),
but is outside the interval for market size (-10%, +15%).
Increasing the variable costs with at least 13% determines
a negative NPV, but the value is situated outside the
interval (-5%, +10%), even it is close enough to its
superior limit.
To gather supplementary information about unknown
variables (sold quantity, market share, unit sale price), the
company considers the possibility to delay the investment
decision, which means that investor owns a CALL real
option, appraised in this section. The first step is to asses
the elements from BS and binomial option pricing models.
The value of the underlying asset is represented by
discounted cash flows of 5,074.84 thousands USD and
exercise price is the cost of implementing the project of
3,670 thousands USD (constant in real terms).
Time to maturity is strictly related with the period
while investor can maintain the advantage of the first
Romanian producer in this market consisting entirely of
imports. As we mentioned before, the company does not
exclusively own this option, because other investors
could be equally interested of such a project. As
construction industry is growing, is expected that
construction materials industry follow the same trend, so
it is a great probability that new competitors entry on this
expansive market. Using of top technology and high level
of investment needed are significant barriers to entry in
this industry, offering a supplementary advantage for
investor. Therefore, under given circumstances, we
appreciate that deferring the project with more than 3
years could drive to lose of preemption right.
Risk free rate is assimilated to the rate of return for
government bonds with maturity in 3 years. Because the
Public Finance Ministry in Romania did not issue any
more US dollars denominated bonds, we use as a proxy
the rate of return for treasury bills with maturity at 3 years,
issued by United States Treasury (4.7% at the end of year
2006) plus the country risk premium for Romania.
International rating agencies noted Romania, for
government bonds denominated in a foreign currency
with BBB (Fitch Ratings(4), last modified in august 2006),
Baa3 (Moody’s(5), improved in October 2006, from Ba1)
and BBB- (Standard & Poor’s(6)). USA rating is Aaa or
AAA that is the greatest note for all agencies. Country
default spread is zero for government bonds noted with
Aaa and 2% (or 200 points) for Baa3(7). In conclusion, for
the binomial model we use an interest rate (a so-called
risk free rate, composed of the two elements) of 6.7% (in
discreet time), corresponding to a rate of 6.486% for BS
model (in continuous time).
Volatility of the underlying asset is estimated from
the distribution of probability of DCF from Monte Carlo
Figure 2. Sensitivity analysis - Change in NPV
-8.000.000
-6.000.000
-4.000.000
-2.000.000
0
15%
2.000.000
4.000.000
6.000.000
8.000.000
10.000.000
-50%
-30%
-20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
30%
Change
50%
NPV
Market size
Market Share
Unit sale price
Unit variable cost
Fixed expences
days for working capital
Page 9
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Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
simulation (4,000 scenarios were included). For every
rolling of simulation is generated the distribution of
probability for NPV and the present value of free cash-
flows PV(FCF). Rolling subsequently the simulation for
many times, the average for natural logarithm of
discounted free cash-flows - E(ln(PV(FCF))) is situated
between 15.4 and 15.5, and standard deviation
ó(ln(PV(FCF))) falls between 14.56 and 15.54. We could
be tempted to use the maximum value for ó (the maximum
level of risk), but we know that the greater the volatility
of the underlying asset, the greater the value of CALL
option. That is why we decide to use an average of the
two values, which is σ = 15%, corresponding to a
dispersion σ2 = 0.0225.
Because the financial flows generated by investment
are not evenly distributed during the life of project,
dividend yield is calculated with the following formula:
Cost of delay = (PV of CF in the future - PV of CF at the current
moment) / PV of CF at the current moment.
Present value of cash-flows (in the future) in the
situation of deferring the project with one year is
determined under some assumptions: the forecast for
exogenous variables is extended with one year to 2017
(market size and unit sale prices remain the same in 2007,
even the company doesn’t invest, projected inflation rate
is still 2%, and corporate income tax is unchanged 16%);
for endogenous variables, strictly related to firm features
and policies, the foreseeing is lagged with one year, the
life of the project falls now between 2008 and 2017 (for
instance, market share for the first year is again 25%, but
it is applied now to another level for market size, so the
quantity sold in the first year is different from the initial
scenario). The variable expenses have the same weight,
but they are computed from other values for turnover.
Amortization has the same value in nominal terms, but
the amortization process is also lagged with one year. We
do not forget about loses recover procedure (needed for
financial lose in the first year of operating) and investment
in working capital when we recalculate the discounted
cash flows. The result is PV of CF in the future = 4,563.55
thousands USD and dividend yield = -10.075% (the sign
indicates that this is a cost).
BS model for pricing the CALL option to delay this
project leads to following results: d1 = 0.96296 and N(d1)
= 0.83222, d2 = 0.70315 and N(d2) = 0.75902, so CALL
option price is 828.66 thousands USD.
We can also use binomial model to asses the option,
but value of the underlying asset changes this time only
once per year, so dt = 1, the “up” factor u = 1.2284 and the
“down” factor d = 0.9101. Investor may exercise the option
in each year until maturity (three years), which means
that this is an American CALL option. Dividend yield
diminishes the price of the underlying asset in each point
of the binomial tree. For an example, a value of the
underlying asset of 5,074.84 thousands USD become, after
one year, S (u - ä) = 5,722.88 or S (d - ä) = 4,107.09
and so on (Figure 3).
7,277.77
6,453.67
5,722.885,222.99
5,074.84
4,631.55
4,107.093,748.34
3,323.89
2,690.04
Figure 3. The binomial tree for the value of the underlying
asset
Risk neutral probabilities are p =
du
dr
−
−+
1
= 49.29%
and 1-p = 50.71%.
Option pricing is done for every point of the binomial
tree, starting with the third year and going backwards to
the current moment of time. As an example, we picture
the binomial tree for discreet time value of option to delay
this project, in Figure 4.
3,607.77
2,404.74
1,469.58 1,552.99
852.77
754.68
365.84 78.34
36.19
0.00
Figure 4. The binomial tree for the CALL option to delay the
project
CALL option value from the binomial model is 852.77
thousands USD, bigger than the value obtained from BS
model (828.66 thousands USD), because we divided the
time until maturity in a very small number of periods
(only three). We also built a tree with 12 periods (changing
Page 10
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Theoretical and Applied Economics
the value of the underlying asset every trimester).
Trimestrial rate of return is 1.68%, u = 1.0726 and
d = 0.9232, risk neutral probabilities are p = 0.6262 and
1 - p = 0.3738, and trimestrial dividend yield is 2.51875%.
The value of CALL option is now 847.57 thousands USD,
smaller than in the situation of annual change for the
underlying asset, but still not so close to the value from
BS model. Despite of this, unlike other securities traded
continuously, the underlying asset for a real option is
always represented by discreet value of DCF (usually,
estimated once a year).
For pricing financial options, binomial tree is a
reliable tool only if year is divided in a large number
of periods. However, for real options, a binomial tree
with annual change for price of the underlying asset is
more appropriate than BS model. For this reason, we
say that CALL option to delay the project has a
maximum value of 852.77 thousands USD
(representing 23.2% of capital investment), but could
not be smaller than 828.66 thousands USD (which
means 22.6% of project value).
Pricing the option to abandon the project
We can imagine scenarios for correlated evolution of
variables from the free cash-flows model with negative
NPV for the project. The possibility to abandon the project
if one of these pessimistic scenarios occurs becomes
valuable. Therefore, the investment has attached a PUT
option to abandon.
The price of the underlying asset is again the present
value of projected cash flows and that is 5,074.84
thousands USD. Exercise price is represented by the
salvage value from the abandonment, estimated at the
current moment of time by cumulating market values for
land, buildings and technology (the value is fixed over
time, in real terms). Experts of real estate industry appraise
the market value of land to 360 thousands USD.
Buildings have a long life period (legal amortization
period is 40 years) and we can take their production cost
(440 thousands USD) as a proxy for the market value after
10 years (no matter that the book value decrease with
every passed year). Because the company constructed
the buildings itself, the production cost is, for sure,
smaller than their market value. Experts estimate that
market value is at least 660 thousands USD, with 50%
bigger than accounting value.
Market value for equipments and installations is hard
to asses, because it is an inflexible and specialized
technology, and there is not an active second-hand market
for this kind of equipment. That is why we consider
(subjectively, of course) that our old technology worth at
least 1.600 thousands, approximately half of the price for
a similar new technology. Doing so, we do not risk
overestimating the salvage value, because for a PUT
option, the bigger the exercise price, the bigger the price
of the option.
The time to maturity is thought to be 10 years, because
investor may decide to abandon the project anytime during
the exploitation period.
Risk free rate is equal to rate of return for treasury
bonds with 10 years maturity (issued by US Treasury),
which was 4.67% at the end of year 2006, plus country
risk premium for Romania, estimated to 2%. The result is
a discount rate of 6.67% for the binomial model (in discreet
time) and 6.457% for BS model (in continuous time).
Volatility of the underlying asset is the same with
dispersion obtained in Monte Carlo simulation σ2 =
0.0225. The dividend yield is δ = 1/the remained period
from the life of the project = 10%.
Pricing the PUT option to abandon the project with
BS model generates the following results: d1 = 0.88401
and N(-d1) = 0.18835, d2 = 0.40966 and N(-d2) = 0.34103,
and PUT option value is 116.82 thousands USD.
We also built a binomial tree for the underlying asset
for 10 years, with dt = 1 (annual change for the discounted
cash-flows of the project). The multiplying factors are u =
1.2281 and d = 0.9098. This PUT option is also an
American option and it may be exercised anytime in the
period of 10 years until maturity. Risk neutral
probabilities are p = 49.3% and 1-p = 50.7%. Option
pricing is done by calculating its value in every single
point of the tree, backwards from the tenth year to the
current moment of time.
PUT option value from the binomial model is 142.5
thousands USD, bigger than the value obtained from BS
model (116.82 thousands USD), for the same reasons
reported before, for the option to delay the project. So we
consider that PUT option to abandon the project has a
maximum value of 142.5 thousands USD (representing
3.9% of capital investment), but could not be smaller
than 116.82 thousands USD (which means 3.2% of project
value).
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Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project
Conclusions
The first conclusion is obvious: pricing real options
associated with the investment of producing metallic tiles
conduct the investor to recommendation of adopting the
project. NPV was positive even before identifying and
pricing the real options. Option to delay and option to
abandon bring a supplementary value of 26% of invested
capital, and represents an enhancement of approximately
75% for NPV, in comparison with situation when real
options were ignored.
The option to delay the project has a significant value,
because uncertainty associated with this investment is
greater than investor thought it would be. Sensitivity
analysis reveals that the project is extremely sensitive to
changes in unit sale price and unit variable cost. On one
hand, to postpone the investment decision is a valuable
opportunity because new information arises while time
passes. On the other hand, deferring the project exposes
the company to potential competition. For such
investments with multiple sources of uncertainty, the only
solution is to undertake the project.
Option to abandon the project has a small price,
because of the influence coming from the reduced value
for volatility (ó is only 15%) and from undervalued
exercise price (these two elements diminish the price of a
PUT option). If abandonment appears in the first two or
three years, this value is certainly bigger.
The value for the underlying asset is taken from project
appraisal in a certain environment, using the same
discount rate of 18.5%. But real options embedded in a
project reduce the risk of investment, and we must use a
smaller discount rate, so the value for the underlying asset
increases, which implies that the price of option to delay
enhances, while the price of option to abandon decreases.
Real options are reliable tools for capital budgeting
only if they are used for complex strategic projects. Real
options are used rather to conceptualize projects than to
appraise them, to change organizational structure in a
company, needed to gather the maximum potential from
a project.
In conclusion, using real options is more related with
company management than with valuation methodology.
Applying real options successfully assumes training the
managerial team in real options spirit. Managers must
detach from decisions adopted only with DCF or NPV
and to be ready to renounce to a project if it is proven to
be more efficiently that way.
Notes
(1)
Source: Mauboussin M., 1999, pp. 8 ºi Bruun S., P. Bason,
2001, „Essay One: What Are Real Options?”, pp. 5 (abordare
preluatã ºi adaptatã din Timothy A. Luehrman, 1998, „In-
vestment Opportunities as Real Options: Getting Started on
the Numbers”, Harvard Business Review, July – August,
pp. 51 – 58.
Damodaran A., 2002, Chapter 5: „Option Pricing Theory and
Models” ºi Capitolul 28: „The Option to Delay and Valuation
Implications”. A similar formula also in Richard A. Brealey
and Stewart C. Myers, 1996, „Principles of Corporate Finance”,
(2)
Fifth Edition, The McGraw–Hill Companies Inc., New York,
pp. 598, where u =
e
ºi d =
See Damodaran A., 2002, Chapter 29: „The Option to
Expand and Abandon: Valuation Implications”
Source: www.fitchratings.com, Fitch Ratings Ltd., New York
Source: www.moodys.com, Moody’s Investors Service
Source: www.standardandpoors.com, Standard & Poor’s,
The McGraw–Hill Companies, New York
Source: www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/countryrisk, according
the data given by Moody’s
dt
×σ
dt
e
× −σ
, and d = 1/u.
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Page 12
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Theoretical and Applied Economics
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