A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages
ABSTRACT This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of R&D-based trade between two structurally identical countries in which both innovation and skill acquisition rates are endogenously determined. Trade liberalization increases R&D investment and the rate of technological change. It also reduces the relative wage of unskilled workers and results in skill upgrading within each industry when R&D is the skilled-labor intensive activity relative to manufacturing of final products. Time-series evidence from the United States and simulation analysis support the empirical relevance of the model, which offers a North-North trade explanation for increasing wage inequality.
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ABSTRACT: We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. We investigate the relative performance of VaR and ES models using daily returns for sixteen stock market indices (eight from developed and eight from emerging markets) prior to and during the 2008 financial crisis. In addition to widely used VaR and ES models, we also study the behavior of conditional and unconditional extreme value (EV) models to generate 99 percent confidence level estimates as well as developing a new loss function that relates tail losses to ES forecasts. Backtesting results show that only our proposed new hybrid and Extreme Value (EV)-based VaR models provide adequate protection in both developed and emerging markets, but that the hybrid approach does this at a significantly lower cost in capital reserves. In ES estimation the hybrid model yields the smallest error statistics surpassing even the EV models, especially in the developed markets.American Economic Review 01/1996; 86(2):240-45. · 2.69 Impact Factor