Article

Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

University of Groningen, CEES, Haren, The Netherlands.
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (Impact Factor: 5.29). 11/2010; 278(1712):1661-9. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2010.2020
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito-human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

0 Bookmarks
 · 
121 Views
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM Climatic Change
    Climatic Change 07/2014; 125(3-4):479-488. DOI:10.1007/s10584-014-1172-6 · 4.62 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The impact of climate change has been significant enough to endanger human health both directly and indirectly via heat stress, degraded air quality, rising sea levels, food and water security, extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc.), vulnerable shelter, and population migration. The deterioration of environmental conditions may facilitate the transmission of diarrhea, vector-borne and infectious diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, etc. Indirect effects of climate change such as mental health problems due to stress, loss of homes, economic instability, and forced migration are also unignorably important. Children, the elderly, and communities living in poverty are among the most vulnerable of the harmful effects due to climate change. In this article, we have reviewed the scientific evidence for the human health impact of climate change and analyzed the various diseases in association with changes in the atmospheric environment and climate conditions.
    Journal of Environmental Science and Health Part C Environmental Carcinogenesis & Ecotoxicology Reviews 09/2014; 32(3):299-318. DOI:10.1080/10590501.2014.941279 · 3.23 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The national action plan for malaria elimination in China (2010-2020) was issued by the Chinese Ministry of Health along with other 13 ministries and commissions in 2010. The ultimate goal of the national action plan was to eliminate local transmission of malaria by the end of 2020. Surveillance and response are the most important components driving the whole process of the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP), under the technical guidance used in NMEP. This chapter introduces the evolution of the surveillance from the control to the elimination stages and the current structure of national surveillance system in China. When the NMEP launched, both routine surveillance and sentinel surveillance played critical role in monitoring the process of NMEP. In addition, the current response strategy of NMEP was also reviewed, including the generally developed "1-3-7 Strategy". More effective and sensitive risk assessment tools were introduced, which cannot only predict the trends of malaria, but also are important for the design and adjustment of the surveillance and response systems in the malaria elimination stage. Therefore, this review presents the landscape of malaria surveillance and response in China as well as their contribution to the NMEP, with a focus on activities for early detection of malaria cases, timely control of malaria foci and epidemics, and risk prediction. Furthermore, challenges and recommendations for accelerating NMEP through surveillance are put forward. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
    Advances in Parasitology 01/2014; 86:81-108. DOI:10.1016/B978-0-12-800869-0.00004-4 · 4.36 Impact Factor

Full-text (3 Sources)

Download
36 Downloads
Available from
Jun 5, 2014