Accuracy of the Kattan nomogram across prostate cancer risk-groups
ABSTRACT • To investigate the predictive ability of nomograms at the extremes of preoperative clinical parameters by examining the predictive ability across all prostate cancer risk groups.
• The Columbia University Urologic Oncology Database was reviewed: 3663 patients underwent radical prostatectomy from 1988 to 2008. Patients who had received neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy, or had insufficient clinical parameters for estimation of 5-year progression-free probability using the preoperative Kattan nomogram were excluded. • A total of 1877 patients were included and stratified by D'Amico risk criteria. Mean estimated nomogram progression rates were compared with actuarial Kaplan-Meier survival statistics. • A regression model to predict progression-free survival was fitted with estimated nomogram score and concordance indices were calculated for the entire model and subsequently for each risk group.
• Of 1877 patients, 857 (45.6%) were low risk, 704 (37.5%) were intermediate risk, and 316 (16.8%) were high risk by D'Amico criteria. • Mean estimated nomogram survival and actuarial Kaplan-Meier survival at 5 years were 90.5% and 92.2% (95% CI 89.2-94.3) for low-risk, 76.7% and 77.8% (73.3-81.7) for intermediate-risk, and 65.8% and 60.4% (52.0-67.7) for high-risk groups, respectively. Using nomogram score in the regression model, the c-index for the full model was 0.61. • For low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients independently the c-index was 0.60, 0.59 and 0.57, respectively. When low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients were independently removed from the model the c-index was 0.64, 0.65 and 0.55, respectively. • The c-index for the full model using the categorical nomogram risk scores was 0.67. Similar to the D'Amico model, the c-index improved to 0.69 when intermediate-risk patients were removed from the model.
• The study confirms the ability of preoperative nomograms to accurately predict actuarial survival across all risk groups. • The predictive ability of the nomogram varies by risk group, yet even at the extremes of high-risk and low-risk prostate cancer the nomogram accurately predicts outcome.
- SourceAvailable from: PubMed Central
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
- "The CAPRA score ranges from 0 to 10 and is determined on the basis of age, preoperative PSA, Gleason sum, clinical T stage, and percentage of positive biopsy cores . These tools are relatively simple and easy to use and have undergone extensive external validation of multiple endpoints including recurrence, metastasis, and mortality [21-25]. "
ABSTRACT: Today, the majority of men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer will present with low-risk features of the disease. Because prostate cancer often takes an insidious course, it is debated whether the majority of these men require radical treatment and the accompanying derangement of quality of life domains imposed by surgery, radiation, and hormonal therapy. Investigators have identified various selection criteria for "insignificant disease," or that which can be monitored for disease progression while safely delaying radical treatment. In addition to the ideal definition of low risk, a lack of randomized trials comparing the various options for treatment in this group of men poses a great challenge for urologists. Early outcomes from active surveillance cohorts support its use in carefully selected men with low-risk disease features, but frequent monitoring is required. Patient selection and disease monitoring methods will require refinement that will likely be accomplished through the increased use of biomarkers and specialized imaging techniques.Korean journal of urology 07/2013; 54(7):417-25. DOI:10.4111/kju.2013.54.7.417
- [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Study Type - Therapy (case series) Level of Evidence 4 What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? High-grade prostate cancers are associated with poor disease-specific outcomes. A proportion of these tumours produce little PSA. This study demonstrates that among Gleason 8-10 prostate cancers, some of the worst survival outcomes are associated with the lowest PSA levels. • To assess outcomes of patients with Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer (CaP) with a low (≤ 2.5 ng/mL) vs higher preoperative serum PSA levels. • From 1983 to 2003, 5544 patients underwent open radical prostatectomy, of whom 354 had a Gleason 8-10 tumour in the prostatectomy specimen. • Patients were stratified according to preoperative PSA level into four strata: ≤ 2.5 ng/mL (n= 31), 2.6-4 ng/mL (n= 31), 4.1-10 ng/mL (n= 174), and >10 ng/mL (n= 118). • We compared biochemical progression-free survival (PFS), metastasis-free survival (MFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) as a function of preoperative PSA level. • Patients with PSA level ≤ 2.5 ng/mL were more likely to have seminal vesicle invasion (P= 0.003). • On Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, patients with a PSA level ≤ 2.5 ng/mL had proportionately worse outcomes than their counterparts with higher PSA levels. • The 7-year PFS in the PSA ≤ 2.5 ng/mL stratum was lower than those of the PSA 2.6-4 ng/mL and 4-10 ng/mL strata (36% vs 50 and 42%, respectively); however, the lowest 7-year PFS was found in those with a PSA level >10 ng/mL (32%, P= 0.02). • Gleason score 8-10 tumours with a PSA level ≤ 2.5 ng/mL also tended to have the lowest 7-year MFS (75, 93, 89 and 92% for PSA level ≤ 2.5, 2.6-4, 4.1-10 and >10 ng/mL, respectively, P= 0.2) and CSS (81, 100, 94 and 90% for PSA level ≤ 2.5, 2.6-4, 4.1-10 and >10 ng/mL, respectively, P= 0.3), although these differences were not statistically significant. • In the subset with palpable disease, Gleason grade 8-10 disease with PSA level ≤ 2.5 ng/mL also was associated with a worse prognosis. • In patients with Gleason grade 8-10 disease, a proportion of these tumours are so poorly differentiated that they produce relatively little PSA. • Patients with high-grade, low-PSA tumours had less favourable outcomes than many of those with higher PSA levels.BJU International 10/2011; 109(12):1764-9. DOI:10.1111/j.1464-410X.2011.10628.x · 3.53 Impact Factor
- [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Clinical outcomes in prostate cancer are heterogeneous, and given the high prevalence of the disease, there is a pressing need to identify clinically useful markers of prognosis. Many clinical, pathological, molecular, and genetic factors have been investigated in this capacity, although relatively few are routinely used. With a growing understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of prostate cancer, there is the potential that the next generation of makers will prove sufficiently robust to guide the optimal management of men with prostate cancer. Here, we review the various clinical and molecular prognostic determinants in prostate cancer.The Cancer Journal 11/2011; 17(6):429-37. DOI:10.1097/PPO.0b013e31823b042c · 4.24 Impact Factor