O.R. modelling of the deterioration and maintenance of concrete structures

European Journal of Operational Research (Impact Factor: 2.36). 02/1997; 99(3):619-631. DOI: 10.1016/S0377-2217(96)00325-6
Source: RePEc


This paper reports on a collaborative venture between operational researchers and civil engineers over 3 years. The main objectives were to collect and publish data on the observed rates of deterioration of particular defect types in a large number of concrete bridges, and to develop predictive mathematical models that relate inspection frequency to maintenance costs. The motivation was in part associated with the prototype modelling paper for inspection practices of major concrete structures, Christer (1988). The paper reports on the analysis of data collected and the estimation of deterioration using the concept of delay time. The two phase delay time model is extended to an extra phase in order to model the process of cracking and spalling in concrete. Maximum likelihood techniques are used to estimate modelling parameters and an appropriate test of fit is carried out. Cost based models are then formulated to predict the cost effects of maintenance and inspection decision options. The cost model is applied first to an element, and then to an aggregate number of component types to produce a cost model for maintenance of a bridge or set of bridges.

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    • "For some recent examples of extensive case studies one may look to, for example: Vanneste and Van Wassenhove (1995)--an integrated approach to modelling maintenance at a concrete products manufacturer , with particular application of age-based replacement ; Christer et al. (1995)--modelling inspection maintenance at a copper products manufacturer; Perakis and Inozu (1991)--replacement modelling of components in marine diesels under particular operating conditions; Monplaisir and Arumugadasan (1994)--Markov modelling of condition based maintenance for locomotive diesel engines; Gopalaswamy et al. (1993)--component replacement for a vehicle fleet using multiple criteria decision making; Kececioglu and Sun (1995)--opportunistic replacement for ballbearing systems; Chilcott and Christer (1991) --maintenance modelling of coal face machinery; Redmond et al. (1997)--modelling the degradation of concrete structures. Dekker (1996) provides a recent review of published case studies relating to mathematical modelling of maintenance (maintenance optimization models). "
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    ABSTRACT: This paper may be seen as an appeal to maintenance modellers to work with maintenance engineers and managers on real problems. Such collaboration is essential if maintenance modelling is to be accepted within the engineering community. It is also particularly important in the design and building of maintenance management information systems if such systems are to be used to manage and operate maintenance policy in the new millennium. In this context, developing areas of maintenance modelling are discussed, namely: inspection maintenance; condition based maintenance; maintenance for multi-component systems; and maintenance management information systems. Some new models relating to capital replacement are also considered. Thus, we are concerned with the mathematical modelling of maintenance rather than with management processes relating to maintenance. Discussion of maintenance management information systems is included because of their importance in providing data for mathematical modelling and in implementing model-based maintenance policy.
    European Journal of Operational Research 06/1997; 99(3-99):493-506. DOI:10.1016/S0377-2217(96)00316-5 · 2.36 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: In this paper we discuss the state of the art in applications of maintenance optimisation models. After giving a short introduction to the area, we consider several ways in which models may be used to optimise maintenance, such as case studies, operational and strategic decision support systems, and give examples of each of them. Next we discuss several areas where the models have been applied successfully. These include civil structure and aeroplane maintenance. From a comparative point of view, we discuss future prospects.
    Reliability Engineering [?] System Safety 02/1997; 60(2-60):111-119. DOI:10.1016/S0951-8320(98)83004-4 · 2.41 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Delay time (DT) analysis is a pragmatic mathematical concept readily embraced by engineers which has been developed as a means to model maintenance decision problems. Attention is focused upon the maintenance engineering decisions of what to do, as opposed to the logistical decisions of how to do it. This paper reviews the cumulative knowledge and experience of delay time modelling. The decision environment within which delay time (DT) models are intended as decision aids is briefly reviewed, and the initial development of simple DT models for a repairable component and a complex plant presented. Variations on the basic model are outlined and discussed including perfect and non-perfect inspection, steady state and non-steady state conditions, and homogeneous and non-homogeneous Poisson arrival rate of defects. Attention is given to the parameter estimation process, and both subjective and objective estimation techniques are outlined. Case sketches present practical experience in using the DT concept to model actual plant, to assess the benefits obtained, and to validate modelling and parameter assessment.
    Journal of the Operational Research Society 11/1999; 50(11):1120. DOI:10.2307/3010083 · 0.95 Impact Factor
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