A Risk Prediction Model for Delayed Graft Function in the Current Era of Deceased Donor Renal Transplantation

Biostatistics and Health Outcomes Research, CTI Clinical Trial and Consulting Services, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
American Journal of Transplantation (Impact Factor: 5.68). 10/2010; 10(10):2279-86. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-6143.2010.03179.x
Source: PubMed


Delayed graft function (DGF) impacts short- and long-term outcomes. We present a model for predicting DGF after renal transplantation. A multivariable logistic regression analysis of 24,337 deceased donor renal transplant recipients (2003-2006) was performed. We developed a nomogram, depicting relative contribution of risk factors, and a novel web-based calculator ( as an easily accessible tool for predicting DGF. Risk factors in the modern era were compared with their relative impact in an earlier era (1995-1998). Although the impact of many risk factors remained similar over time, weight of immunological factors attenuated, while impact of donor renal function increased by 2-fold. This may reflect advances in immunosuppression and increased utilization of kidneys from expanded criteria donors (ECDs) in the modern era. The most significant factors associated with DGF were cold ischemia time, donor creatinine, body mass index, donation after cardiac death and donor age. In addition to predicting DGF, the model predicted graft failure. A 25-50% probability of DGF was associated with a 50% increased risk of graft failure relative to a DGF risk < 25%, whereas a > 50% DGF risk was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of graft failure. This tool is useful for predicting DGF and long-term outcomes at the time of transplant.

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Available from: Mark A Schnitzler, Feb 28, 2014
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    • "For these patients, a successful transplantation provides significantly higher survival rates and better quality of life compared with dialysis [1]. In the past few years, there has been a tremendous improvement in short-term renal allograft survival, but no corresponding improvement in long-term results [2]. Great progress in surgical and preservation techniques, better use of immunosuppressants, and improved tissue typing and immunosupression therapy have not significantly improved long-term graft survival so far [3]. "
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    ABSTRACT: Background: Long-term function of transplanted kidney is the factor determining quality of life for transplant recipients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of selected factors on time of graft function after renal transplantation within 15 years of observation. Methods: Preoperative and intraoperative factors were analyzed in 232 kidney recipients within a 15-year observation period. Analysis included age, sex, cause of recipient's renal failure, length of hemodialyses before transplantation, peak panel reactive antibodies test, human leukocyte antigen compatibility, cold ischemia time, delayed graft function occurrence, length and time of hemodialyses after transplantation, early graft rejection, creatinine level at days 1, 3, 7, 30, 90, and 180 after transplantation, and influence of these factors on the time of graft function. Statistical analysis was performed with the use of univariate and multivariate Kaplan-Meier test and Cox regression proportional hazards model, with P < .05 considered to be significant. Results: Univariate analysis showed significantly shorter renal graft function in the group of recipients with higher creatinine levels in all of the analyzed time periods and in patients experiencing delayed graft function. Length of time of hemodialyses after transplantation and number of dialyses had significant impact on worsening of late transplant results. Multivariate analysis reported that early graft rejection in the postoperative period is an independent factor improving late graft function: P = .002; hazard ratio (HR), 0.49 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-0.78). Higher creatinine level at day 90 after kidney transplantation is a predictive factor of late graft dysfunction: P = .002; HR, 1.68 (95% CI 1.2-2.35). Conclusions: Creatinine level at day 90 after renal transplantation is the prognostic factor of long-term kidney function. Early transplant rejection leads to introduction of more aggressive immunosuppression protocol, which improves long-term transplant results.
    Transplantation Proceedings 10/2014; 46(8):2696-8. DOI:10.1016/j.transproceed.2014.08.016 · 0.98 Impact Factor
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    • "The quality of the transplanted organ, as well as the timing of the initiation of its effective function, depends on many factors potentially causing graft dysfunction. Postoperative graft function is not exclusively determined by pretransplantation donor and graft characteristics [2] [3]. Several lines of evidence indicate that the hemodynamic status of the donor before organ retrieval is associated with initial graft function [4]. "
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    ABSTRACT: Background: The quality of transplanted organ and timing of the initiation of its effective function depends on many factors potentially causing graft dysfunction. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of the cardiovascular status of multiorgan donors on the long-term kidney graft survival over a 15-year observation period. Methods: In 2007, the authors of this study published a multicenter prospective study evaluating the influence of the hemodynamic status of multiorgan donors on the early function of transplanted kidney. The results of that study showed that mean arterial pressure, central venous pressure, and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure values of the donor importantly influence the frequency of delayed graft function after renal transplantation. The present analysis covers the effect of the donor's hemodynamic status parameters on graft function time within the 15-year observation period. Univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox regression proportional hazard model were performed to evaluate the prognostic parameters for overall survival and renal graft survival time. P < .05 was considered to be significant. Results: The univariate analysis showed a significantly shorter time of graft survival in the group of recipients who had a kidney retrieved from donors with lower pulmonary capillary wedge pressure values (P = .038) and lower cardiac index values (P = .039). The same results were obtained for the multifactorial Cox logistic regression analysis. Conclusions: The filling of the intravascular bed of the donor as determined by pulmonary capillary wedge pressure and maintained donor tissue perfusion as determined by cardiac index, impose important factors influencing long-term kidney graft survival.
    Transplantation Proceedings 10/2014; 46(8). DOI:10.1016/j.transproceed.2014.08.017 · 0.98 Impact Factor
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    • "It is associated with increased risk of graft loss, acute rejection and worse allograft function [3]. While it is possible to predict the risk of DGF through the use of many donor- and recipient-associated factors [4], the prediction is not perfect and markers with a better predictive value are warranted. "
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    ABSTRACT: Background We evaluated accuracy of urinary liver type fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP) for prediction of early allograft function and compared it to neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL), diuresis and urinary creatinine excretion rate (UCr). Methods Urine samples from 71 consecutive patients were taken 4, 10, 24 and 48 h after transplantation. We classified recipients into two groups: immediate graft function (IGF), with more than 70% reduction of serum Cr at 7th day post-transplant, and delayed graft function (DGF)/slow graft function (SGF) group (DGF - the need for hemodialysis procedure in the first week, SGF - less than 70% reduction of serum Cr in the first week). Results Thirty-one recipients had IGF and 40 had DGF/SGF. L-FABP was only useful 48 h post-transplant with ROC AUC of 0.85 (95% C.I. 0.74-0.92); NGAL 24 h post-transplant had ROC AUC of 0.82 (0.7-0.91). Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for prediction of DGF/SGF with L-FABP > 9.5 mg/mmol Cr and NGAL > 33.1 μg/mmol Cr were: 86, 80, 83 and 83% (L-FABP), and 68, 93, 91, and 73% (NGAL). The difference in urine output between the groups was largest 4 h post-transplant (p = 0.001), later on the difference diminished. There were no significant differences in ROC AUC between L-FABP at 48 h, NGAL at 24 h, urine output at 4 h and UCr excretion rate at 10 h post-transplant. UCr < 0.56 mmol/h 10 h post-transplant predicted DGF/SGF with 94% sensitivity, 84% specificity, 89% PPV and 91% NPV, ROC AUC was 0.9. Classification tree with urine output 4 h and UCr 10 h post-transplant accurately predicted 89% of outcomes. When L-FABP or NGAL were added, the prediction was accurate in 92 or 90%, respectively. Conclusions L-FABP is comparable to NGAL for prediction of first week allograft function, however UCr and diuresis were non-inferior.
    BMC Nephrology 07/2014; 15(1):117. DOI:10.1186/1471-2369-15-117 · 1.69 Impact Factor
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