Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, GR 31, 800 W. Campbell Road, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080-3021, United States
Journal of Policy Modeling (Impact Factor: 0.64). 01/2009; 31(5):758-778. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2008.07.003
Source: RePEc

ABSTRACT This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates--successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths--are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.

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May 27, 2014