Macro Price setting in the euro area: Some stylised facts from Individual Producer Price

Banque de France, Documents de Travail 01/2007;
Source: RePEc

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discount.

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    ABSTRACT: Our survey covers the recent developments of the microeconometric literature on evaluation methods. In this field, the canonical model is Rubin's causal model, which is close to Roy's selectivity model. This model is the relevant framework for defining and for examining the identifiability conditions of the parameters of interest in any evaluation study. We insist on the definition of these parameters, which include the average effect of the treatment on the treated and on the non-treated individuals. For each set of assumptions (selectivity on observable or unobservable characteristics, conditional independence between outcomes and treatment indicators, etc.), we present the most adapted estimation method. We put a special emphasis on matching estimators in the situation where the selectivity depends only on observables, and on differences-in-differences methods and on regression-discontinuity techniques when the selectivity depends both on observable and unobservable characteristics.
    Banque de France, Documents de Travail. 01/2007;

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