Rotating antibiotics selects optimally against antibiotic resistance, in theory.
ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to use mathematical models to investigate the claim made in the medical literature over a decade ago that the routine rotation of antibiotics in an intensive care unit (ICU) will select against the evolution and spread of antibiotic-resistant pathogens. In contrast, previous theoretical studies addressing this question have demonstrated that routinely changing the drug of choice for a given pathogenic infection may in fact lead to a greater incidence of drug resistance in comparison to the random deployment of different drugs. Using mathematical models that do not explicitly incorporate the spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission within the ICU or hospital and assuming the antibiotics are from distinct functional groups, we use a control theoretic-approach to prove that one can relax the medical notion of what constitutes an antibiotic rotation and so obtain protocols that are arbitrarily close to the optimum. Finally, we show that theoretical feedback control measures that rotate between different antibiotics motivated directly by the outcome of clinical studies can be deployed to good effect to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance below what can be achieved with random antibiotic use.
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ABSTRACT: Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries.The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and more advanced methods for formal model fitting and sensitivity analyses. Insights gained from these models could be broadened to a wider range of pathogens and settings. Improvements in the availability of data and statistical methods could enhance the predictive ability of models.BMC Infectious Diseases 06/2013; 13(1):294. · 3.03 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The evolution of antibiotic resistance among bacteria threatens our continued ability to treat infectious diseases. The need for sustainable strategies to cure bacterial infections has never been greater. So far, all attempts to restore susceptibility after resistance has arisen have been unsuccessful, including restrictions on prescribing  and antibiotic cycling , . Part of the problem may be that those efforts have implemented different classes of unrelated antibiotics, and relied on removal of resistance by random loss of resistance genes from bacterial populations (drift). Here, we show that alternating structurally similar antibiotics can restore susceptibility to antibiotics after resistance has evolved. We found that the resistance phenotypes conferred by variant alleles of the resistance gene encoding the TEM β-lactamase (bla(TEM)) varied greatly among 15 different β-lactam antibiotics. We captured those differences by characterizing complete adaptive landscapes for the resistance alleles bla(TEM-50) and bla(TEM-85), each of which differs from its ancestor bla(TEM-1) by four mutations. We identified pathways through those landscapes where selection for increased resistance moved in a repeating cycle among a limited set of alleles as antibiotics were alternated. Our results showed that susceptibility to antibiotics can be sustainably renewed by cycling structurally similar antibiotics. We anticipate that these results may provide a conceptual framework for managing antibiotic resistance. This approach may also guide sustainable cycling of the drugs used to treat malaria and HIV.PLoS ONE 01/2013; 8(2):e56040. · 3.73 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Antibiotic resistance can be reduced by using antibiotics prudently based on guidelines of antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) and various data such as pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) properties of antibiotics, diagnostic testing, antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST), clinical response, and effects on the microbiota, as well as by new antibiotic developments. The controlled use of antibiotics in food animals is another cornerstone among efforts to reduce antibiotic resistance. All major resistance-control strategies recommend education for patients, children (e.g., through schools and day care), the public, and relevant healthcare professionals (e.g., primary-care physicians, pharmacists, and medical students) regarding unique features of bacterial infections and antibiotics, prudent antibiotic prescribing as a positive construct, and personal hygiene (e.g., handwashing). The problem of antibiotic resistance can be minimized only by concerted efforts of all members of society for ensuring the continued efficiency of antibiotics.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 01/2013; 10(9):4274-305. · 2.00 Impact Factor