Incidence and predictors of death, retention, and switch to second-line regimens in antiretroviral- treated patients in sub-Saharan African Sites with comprehensive monitoring availability.
ABSTRACT Antiretroviral treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa have high rates of early mortality and loss to follow-up. Switching to second-line regimens is often delayed because of limited access to laboratory monitoring.
Retrospective analysis was performed of a cohort of adults who initiated a standard first-line antiretroviral treatment at 5 public sector sites in 3 African countries. Monitoring included routine CD4 cell counts, human immunodeficiency virus RNA measures, and records of whether appointments were kept. Incidence and predictors of death, loss to follow-up, and switch to second-line regimens were analyzed by time-to-event approaches.
A total of 3749 patients were analyzed; at baseline, 37.1% were classified as having World Health Organization disease stage 3 or 4, and the median CD4 cell count was 192 cells/mL. First-line regimens were nevirapine based in 96.5% of patients; 17.7% of patients attended <95% of their drug pickup appointments. During 4545 person-years of follow-up, mortality was 8.6 deaths per 100 person-years and was predicted by lower baseline CD4 cell count, lower hemoglobin level, and lower body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters); more-advanced clinical stage of infection; male sex; and more missed drug pickup appointments. Dropouts (which accrued at a rate of 2.1 dropouts per 100 person-years) were predicted by a lower body mass index, more missed visits and missed drug pickup appointments, and later calendar year. Incidence of switches to second-line regimens was 4.9 per 100 person-years; increased hazards were observed with lower CD4 cell count and earlier calendar year at baseline. In patients who switched, virological failure was predicted by combined clinical and CD4 criteria with 74% sensitivity and 30% specificity.
In an antiretroviral treatment program employing comprehensive monitoring, the probability of switching to second-line therapy was limited. Regular pickup of medication was a predictor of survival and was also strongly predictive of patient retention.
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ABSTRACT: Effective health care models to scale up combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) are needed in rural southwestern China. We aimed to evaluate the ART treatment outcomes and their associations with patients' demographic characteristics and pre-treatment clinical features in a scaled-up provincial ART program serving eight heavily HIV-affected prefectures in Yunnan Province. We abstracted information from a computerized database for adults initiating ART between July 2007 and September 2008. Survival functions of mortality and treatment failure were calculated by age group, gender, transmission mode, and baseline CD4 count. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to find independent associations of various demographic and baseline clinical features with outcome variables. Of the 1967 patients in the mortality analysis, there were 110 deaths, of which 16 were coded as accidents or suicides. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) associated with mortality were greater for patients with baseline CD4 counts <100 cells/µl vs. patients with CD4 counts ≥200 cells/µl, for male vs. female, for single vs. married, and for those acquired HIV through injection drug use (IDU) vs. other modes of transmission. Successful treatment was 81.3% at six months after treatment started. Immunologic treatment failure was associated with baseline CD4 counts but not with demographic characteristics. Overall loss to follow-up rate was 2.1%. Collaboration between clinics and community networks are distinctive features of Yunnan's model for scaling up ART across a diverse, poor, and rural population. This study finds that the strategy can succeed even if 40% of the patients have a history of IDU.AIDS Care 10/2013; · 1.60 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Operational research to identify factors predicting poor clinical outcomes is critical to maximize patient care and prolong first-line regimens for those receiving free antiretroviral therapy (ART) in India. We sought to identify social or clinical factors amenable to intervention that predict virological outcomes after 12 months of ART. We examined a retrospective cohort of consecutive adults initiating free nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens. Individuals remaining in care 12 months post-ART initiation were tested for HIV viral load and surveyed to identify barriers and facilitators to adherence, and to determine clinic travel times and associated costs. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression identified factors predicting HIV viral load >200 copies/mL after 12 months of ART. Of 230 adults initiating ART, 10% of patients died, 8% transferred out, 5% were lost to follow-up, and 174/230 (76%) completed 12 months of ART, the questionnaire, and viral load testing. HIV viral load was <200 copies/mL in 140/174 (80%) patients. In multivariate models, being busy with work or caring for others (OR 2.9, p < 0.01), having clinic transport times ≥ 3 hours (OR 3.0, p = 0.02), and alcohol use (OR 4.8, p = 0.03) predicted viral load >200 copies/mL after 12 months of ART. Clinical outcomes following ART are related to programmatic factors such as prolonged travel time and individual factors such as being busy with family or using alcohol. Simple interventions that alter these factors should be evaluated to improve clinical outcomes for populations receiving free ART in similar settings.AIDS Care 10/2013; · 1.60 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Over 850 million people worldwide and 200 million adults in Sub-Saharan Africa suffer from malnutrition. Countries most affected by HIV are also stricken by elevated rates of food insecurity and malnutrition. HIV infection and insufficient nutritional intake are part of a vicious cycle that contributes to immunodeficiency and negative health outcomes. However, the effect of the overlap between HIV infection and undernutrition on the immune response following antiretroviral initiation remains unclear. A possible explanation could be the lack of consensus concerning the definition and assessment of nutritional status. Our objectives are to investigate the existence of an association between undernutrition and immune response at antiretroviral treatment initiation and the following year in low- and middle-income countries where malnutrition is most prevalent.Methods/design: Our systematic review will identify studies originating from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published from 1996 onwards, through searches in MEDLINE (PubMed interface), EMBASE (OVID interface), Cochrane Central (OVID interface) and grey literature. No language restrictions will be applied. We will seek out studies of any design investigating the association between the nutritional status (for example, undernourished versus well nourished) and the immune response, either in terms of CD4 count or immune failure, in seropositive patients initiating antiretroviral therapy or in their first year of treatment. Two reviewers will independently screen articles, extract data and assess scientific quality using standardized forms and published quality assessment tools tailored for each study design. Where feasible, pooled measures of association will be obtained through meta-analyses. Results will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. This protocol has been registered in the PROSPERO database (registration number: CRD42014005961). Undernutrition and weight loss are prevalent amongst highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-treated patients in LMICs and contribute to excess early mortality. A possible intermediate pathway could be poor immune reconstitution secondary to deficient nutritional status. In the face of limited access to second line treatments, raising HIV resistance and cut backs to HIV programs, it is crucial to identify the factors associated with suboptimal response and therapeutic failure in order to better customize the care strategies employed in LMICs.Systematic reviews. 02/2014; 3(1):9.