Analisis Pengaruh Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah atas Dollar Amerika Serikat dan Nilai Ekspor Terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Sumatera Utara
010501053 Development of foreign commerce is important and influence the economic and development of nation with open economic system such as Indonesia. In this sense, influctuation of economic and global commerce influence the stability and development of nation. In order to indicates the important relationship of international economic for nation, commerce (export and import) is one of important component in foreign economic relationship. In the international economic relation, currency rate has an important role in international commerce activities. The condition of economic in global level determined by capability of a nation to control its currency exchange rate. This study is conducted to analyze the influence of fluctuation of rupiah exchange rate to US dollar and export value to trade balance of North Sumatera. This study was conducted in North Sumatera by using secondary data, i.e annual data since 1984-2003 for average of rupiah exchange rate to US dollar, export value and commerce balance that processed and published by Bank Indonesia and Biro Pusat Statistik (BPS). The toll of analyziz is multilinier regression method. The result of this study indicates that fluctuation of rupiah exchange rate on US dollar and export value has positive impact to the North Sumatera balance of trade during that times in the comfidential level 95%. Dr. Murni Daulay, SE, MSi
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