Major infection after pediatric cardiac surgery: a risk estimation model.

Abstract

In pediatric cardiac surgery, infection is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. We created a model to predict risk of major infection in this population.
Using the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database, we created a multivariable model in which the primary outcome was major infection (septicemia, mediastinitis, or endocarditis). Candidate-independent variables included demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, preoperative factors, and cardiac surgical procedures. We created a reduced model by backward selection and then created an integer scoring system using a scaling factor with scores corresponding to percent risk of infection.
Of 30,078 children from 48 centers, 2.8% had major infection (2.6% septicemia, 0.3% mediastinitis, and 0.09% endocarditis). Mortality and postoperative length of stay were greater in those with major infection (mortality, 22.2% versus 3.0%; length of stay >21 days, 69.9% versus 10.7%). Young age, high complexity, previous cardiothoracic operation, preoperative length of stay more than 1 day, preoperative ventilator support, and presence of a genetic abnormality were associated with major infection after backward selection (p < 0.001). Estimated infection risk ranged from less than 0.1% to 13.3%; the model discrimination was good (c index, 0.79).
We created a simple bedside tool to identify children at high risk for major infection after cardiac surgery. These patients may be targeted for interventions to reduce the risk of infection and for inclusion in future clinical trials.

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Major Infection After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery:
A Risk Estimation Model
Gregory M. Barker, MD, Sean M. O’Brien, PhD, Karl F. Welke, MD,
Marshall L. Jacobs, MD, Jeffrey P. Jacobs, MD, Daniel K. Benjamin, Jr, MD, PhD,
Eric D. Peterson, MD, James Jaggers, MD, and Jennifer S. Li, MD
Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina; Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon; Cleveland
Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio; and The Congenital Heart Institute of Florida, Saint Petersburg and Tampa, Florida
Background. In pediatric cardiac surgery, infection is
a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. We created
a model to predict risk of major infection in this
population.
Methods. Using the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Con-
genital Heart Surgery Database, we created a multivari-
able model in which the primary outcome was major
infection (septicemia, mediastinitis, or endocarditis).
Candidate-independent variables included demographic
characteristics, comorbid conditions, preoperative fac-
tors, and cardiac surgical procedures. We created a re-
duced model by backward selection and then created an
integer scoring system using a scaling factor with scores
corresponding to percent risk of infection.
Results. Of 30,078 children from 48 centers, 2.8% had
major infection (2.6% septicemia, 0.3% mediastinitis, and
0.09% endocarditis). Mortality and postoperative length
of stay were greater in those with major infection (mor-
tality, 22.2% versus 3.0%; length of stay >21 days, 69.9%
versus 10.7%). Young age, high complexity, previous
cardiothoracic operation, preoperative length of stay
more than 1 day, preoperative ventilator support, and
presence of a genetic abnormality were associated with
major infection after backward selection (p < 0.001).
Estimated infection risk ranged from less than 0.1% to
13.3%; the model discrimination was good (c index, 0.79).
Conclusions. We created a simple bedside tool to iden-
tify children at high risk for major infection after cardiac
surgery. These patients may be targeted for interventions
to reduce the risk of infection and for inclusion in future
clinical trials.
(Ann Thorac Surg 2010;89:843–50)
© 2010 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
I
infections (incidence, 2.3% to 8%) [4, 5, 7–9]; however,
many are more serious, such as septicemia (incidence,
6.3% to 15%) [3, 7, 10], mediastinitis (incidence, 0.2% to
3.3%) [5, 8, 9, 11–13], and endocarditis (incidence, 0.2%)
[14–16]. Infections result in significant morbidity (eg,
antibiotic usage, reoperation, prolonged hospital and
intensive care unit [ICU] stays, and longer periods of
mechanical ventilation and inotropic support), and con-
tribute to an increase in mortality [2, 3, 5, 17].
Several studies have evaluated risk factors for postop-
erative infection such as longer preoperative and ICU
stays, longer length of admission, open chest after sur-
gery, cyanotic heart disease, younger age, and higher
complexity score [1, 3, 7]. These studies, however, have
been performed at single centers and are limited by small
sample sizes. There have been few attempts to use risk
factors to create a risk stratification system for postoper-
ative infection; those that have attempted to create such
a system have failed to adequately risk stratify patients in
the setting of pediatric cardiac surgery [18–20].
nfections in children are frequent (incidence, 13% to
31%) after cardiac surgery [1–7]. Many are surgical site
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart
Surgery Database is the largest congenital heart surgery
registry in North America. We used this dataset to
identify risk factors for major infection in children after
cardiac surgery, and to create and validate a bedside
scoring system that can be used to estimate a patient’s
risk of major infection.
Patients and Methods
Data Source
The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Sur-
gery Database was founded in 2002 to support quality
improvement in heart surgery. Data elements include
demographic information, cardiac and noncardiac anom-
alies, comorbid conditions, type of operation, and out-
comes including in-hospital mortality, major complica-
tions, and length of stay. We obtained approval from the
Duke Institutional Review Board for waiver of consent on
the basis of the unidentified nature of the data.
Patient Population
We evaluated patients 18 years of age or younger at
operation from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2006. We
excluded hospitals (n ? 10) with more than 10% missing
data on preoperative risk factors, noncardiac abnormali-
Accepted for publication Nov 19, 2009.
Address correspondence to Dr Li, DUMC Box 3090, Durham, NC
e-mail: jennifer.li@duke.edu.
27710;
© 2010 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
Published by Elsevier Inc
0003-4975/10/$36.00
doi:10.1016/j.athoracsur.2009.11.048
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Table 1. Clinical Characteristics of the Patient Population and Univariate Analysis
Variable Level
Total N
(30078)
Overall
%
Number With
Infection (n ? 857)
Percentage
With Infection
p Value
Preoperative assessment
Aristotle Basic Complexity levelN/A
1
2
3
4
N/A
1
2
3
4
5
6
325 1.1
11.7
46.2
27.1
13.9
7.5
13.6
39.3
27.9
7.5
?0.1
4.3
6 1.9
0.8
2.1
2.9
6.8
3.2
0.7
1.7
3.3
5.0
16.7
12.9
?0.0001
3,512
13,895
8,163
4,183
2,252
4,090
11,819
8,387
2,246
29
296
240
286
73
28
201
276
113
RACHS-1 category
?0.0001
61
1,278165
Demographics
Age
?30 days
1–3 mo
4–12 mo
1–9 y
?10 y
?2.50
2.50–4.99
?5.00
?50th percentile
5th to 50th percentile
?5th percentile
Male
Female
Missing
Caucasian
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Native American
Other
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6,621
2,702
8,603
9,095
3,057
1,005
9,911
19,162
11,633
7,864
10,581
16,537
13,541
5,488
13,209
3,105
5,042
756
153
2,325
3,276
4,523
5,685
7,825
8,769
22.0
9.0
28.6
30.2
10.2
3.3
33.0
63.7
38.7
26.2
35.2
55.0
45.0
18.3
43.9
10.3
16.8
2.5
0.5
7.7
10.9
15.0
18.9
26.0
29.2
426
104
205
107
15
80
508
269
239
261
357
472
385
143
368
112
161
19
6.4
3.9
2.4
1.2
0.5
8.0
5.1
1.4
2.1
3.3
3.4
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
3.6
3.2
2.5
5.2
2.0
3.7
3.3
3.2
2.7
2.2
?0.0001
Weight (kg)
?0.0001
Weight for age/sex (percentile) 0.0005
Sex 0.9379
Race0.1269
8
46
Surgery year120
150
182
213
192
0.0310
Operative
Operative type Bypass
Nonbypass Cardiovascular
Low complexity
Medium complexity
High complexity
24,971
5,107
12,917
12,831
4,330
83.0
17.0
43.0
42.7
14.4
716
141
152
406
299
2.9
2.8
1.2
3.2
6.9
0.4899
Procedure stratuma
?0.0001
Risk factors
Preoperative length of stay (days) Missing
0
1
2
?3
Missing
No
Yes
8
?0.1
61.6
7.9
5.2
25.3
1.9
70.9
27.2
0 0.00
1.3
3.1
4.1
6.4
6.6
2.9
2.6
?0.0001
18,537
2,389
1,549
7,595
563
21,337
8,178
237
74
64
482
37
608
212
Previous cardiac operation0.0867
Continued
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ties, or postoperative complications. We excluded all
solely thoracic surgical operations by excluding those
that did not meet the criteria for “cardiopulmonary
bypass” or “no cardiopulmonary bypass cardiovascular”
(n ? 7,191) and those that consisted of procedures not
related to congenital heart disease surgery (n ? 6,044). In
addition, we excluded 803 operations for which both the
Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery
(RACHS-1) category and the Aristotle Basic Complexity
(ABC) score were undefined. We also excluded those
patients that underwent a heart or lung transplant (n ?
505), a catheter-related procedure (n ? 6), and ligation of
a patent ductus arteriosus in infants weighing less than
2,500 grams (n ? 2,954). We excluded patients if they had
preoperative endocarditis (n ? 154) or septicemia (n ?
309), if there were missing data on age (n ? 3), weight
(n ? 83), or sex (n ? 8), if the recorded weight was
implausible (n ? 244; defined as 7 standard deviations
below or 5 standard deviations above the patient’s pre-
dicted weight according to growth charts from the Cen-
ters for Disease Control and Prevention [21]), or if there
were no data on postoperative complications regarding
infection (n ? 147). Finally, we included the first opera-
tion per hospital admission and excluded subsequent
operations (n ? 1,073) within the same admission. The
final population consisted of 30,078 patients from 48
institutions.
Clinical End Point
The primary end point of the analysis was “major infec-
tion,” defined as septicemia, mediastinitis, or endocardi-
tis before hospital discharge, or after discharge if it was
attributed to the operation. Mediastinitis was defined as
postoperative infection involving the sternum or medi-
astinum including at least one of the following: (1) wound
opened with drainage of fluid or excision of tissue, (2)
culture positive for infection, or (3) treatment with anti-
biotics or antifungals. Septicemia was defined as postop-
erative bloodstream infection requiring positive blood
cultures and excluded catheter contaminants. Endocar-
ditis was defined as postoperative intracardiac infection
with echocardiographic or blood culture confirmation.
However, in equivocal cases, clinical data such as splenic
infarcts, Janeway lesions, and thromboemboli were suf-
ficient to make the diagnosis. It should be noted, how-
ever, that these definitions were adopted in 2006, after
much of the data had been collected.
Statistical Analysis and Model Development
We selected candidate variables based on risk factors for
infection after cardiac surgery previously identified [1,
3–5, 7–9, 17, 22–25] as well as potential risk factors based
on clinical suspicion of the authors (including pediatric
cardiologists, cardiovascular surgeons, and an infectious
disease specialist). We included only risk factors identi-
fied before the operation. Candidate risk factors were
procedure type (grouped into categories by ABC [26] and
RACHS-1 [27] scores); age; weight-for-age-and-sex per-
centile [21]; previous cardiac surgery; preoperative
length of stay of more than 1 day; preoperative mechan-
ical ventilation or tracheostomy; preoperative acidosis,
circulatory support, or shock; identified genetic abnor-
mality; and year of surgery. Weight (as opposed to
weight-for-age-and-sex) was not included as a candidate
variable because of its correlation with age.
After the selection of candidate variables, we per-
formed a univariate analysis to determine the incidence
of major infection in relationship to the candidate vari-
Table 1. Continued
VariableLevel
Total N
(30078)
Overall
%
Number With
Infection (n ? 857)
Percentage
With Infection
p Value
Preoperative acidosisNo
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
29,462
616
30,022
98.0
2.1
99.8
0.2
98.9
1.1
99.7
0.3
89.5
10.5
72.5
27.5
811
46
853
2.8
7.5
2.8
7.1
2.8
6.2
2.8
12.5
2.1
9.3
2.2
4.5
?0.0001
Preoperative circulatory support0.0518
564
Preoperative shock29,740
338
29,982
836
21
845
12
564
293
487
370
0.0011
Preoperative tracheostomy0.0016
96
Preoperative ventilatory support 26,922
3,156
21,811
8,267
?0.0001
Any genetic abnormality
?0.0001
Mortality
Discharge mortality Missing
No
Yes
360.1
96.3
3.6
1 2.8
2.3
17.6
?0.0001
28,963
1,079
666
190
aLow complexity is defined as ABC ? 3 and RACHS-1 ? 3; high complexity is defined as ABC ? 4 or RACHS-1 ? 5; medium complexity is defined as
all others.
N/A ? not assigned;RACHS-1 ? Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery.
845
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ables. We then developed a logistic regression model
including all of the candidate explanatory variables (full
model). Age was modeled continuously using restricted
cubic splines with knots at 90 days, 1 year, and 3 years.
Weight-for-age-and-sex was modeled as three catego-
ries: less than 5th percentile, 5th through 50th percentile,
and greater than 50th percentile. Variables in the logistic
model were estimated using generalized estimating
equations methodology with an exchangeable working
correlation structure to account for clustering of subjects
within hospitals.
We adjusted for procedure by grouping procedure
types into strata and entering them in the model as a set
of category indicator variables. Initially, we allowed any
procedure with at least 20 occurrences to be its own
stratum. Remaining procedures were categorized by
cross-classifying the procedure’s ABC score with its
RACHS-1 score. This approach resulted in 37 strata. For
simplicity, we also developed a model using only 3 strata
(“low complexity”, defined as ABC ? 3 and RACHS-1 ? 3;
“high complexity” defined as ABC ? 4 or RACHS-1 ? 5;
and “medium complexity” defined as all others). Results
were similar; therefore, we used the model using only
these three strata for the remainder of the analysis. Of
note, when there were multiple procedures per opera-
tion, they were assigned to the stratum of the most
complex procedure.
Reduced Model and Bedside Tool
We created a reduced model by applying backward
selection to the set of candidate variables, using a signif-
icance criterion of 0.05 for eliminating variables. To
facilitate bedside scoring, we replaced the spline terms
for age with a set of age categories (0–30 days, 31–90 days,
90 days–1 year, 1–3 years, 3–5 years, 5? years). We forced
year of surgery into the model to ensure that the weight-
ing of patient-level risk factors would not be confounded
by changes in risk factor prevalence and infection risk
with time. To create the bedside risk tool we multiplied
each regression coefficient by 5 and rounded to the
nearest integer. Although year of surgery was included
in the model, it was omitted from the bedside risk tool.
The risk score for each patient was defined by summing
the points across risk factors. Finally, we determined the
Table 2. Full Model
Variable OR (95% CI)
Age
7 days (vs 1 y)
30 days (vs 1 y)
90 days (vs 1 y)
3 y (vs 1 y)
10 y (vs 1 y)
Weight (for age and sex)
5th–50th percentile
?5th percentile
Previous cardiothoracic operation
Preoperative stay ?1 day
Preoperative ventilatory support
Preoperative acidosis, circulatory
support, shock
Genetic abnormality
Surgery year
Medium complexitya
High complexityb
1.82 (1.43, 2.31)
1.74 (1.39, 2.18)
1.56 (1.31, 1.87)
0.66 (0.59, 0.73)
0.39 (0.29, 0.52)
0.91 (0.79, 1.04)
1.18 (0.97, 1.43)
2.14 (1.71, 2.68)
1.78 (1.54, 2.07)
2.02 (1.66, 2.45)
0.90 (0.69, 1.16)
1.69 (1.44, 1.98)
0.90 (0.82, 0.98)
1.84 (1.51, 2.24)
3.00 (2.24, 4.03)
aAristotle Basic Complexity Score ? 3 or RACHS-1 ? 3–4 (and not “high
complexity”).
bAristotle Basic Complexity Score ? 3 or RACHS-1 ? 4.
CI ? confidence interval;OR ? odds ratio.
Table 3. Reduced and Integer Models
VariableOR (95% CI) Points p Value
Age ?90 days
Age 90 days–3 y
Age 3–5 y
Medium complexitya
High complexityb
Preoperative length of stay ?1
day
Preoperative ventilator support
Previous cardiothoracic
operation
Genetic abnormality
6.3 (4.1–9.8)
4.1 (2.7–6.1)
1.9 (1.1–3.4)
1.8 (1.5–2.2)
3.0 (2.4–3.7)
1.8 (1.5–2.2)
9
7
3
3
6
3
?0.0001
?0.0001
0.027
?0.0001
?0.0001
?0.0001
2.1 (1.8–2.5)
2.1 (1.7–2.5)
4
4
?0.0001
?0.0001
1.9 (1.7–2.2)3
?0.0001
aAristotle Basic Complexity Score ? 3 or RACHS-1 ? 3–4 (and not “high
complexity”).
bAristotle Basic Complexity Score ? 3 or RACHS-1 ? 4.
CI ? confidence interval; OR ? odds ratio.
Table 4. Bedside Tool Risk Look-up Table
Risk Score Probability of Infection (%)95% CI
0
3
4
6
7
8
9
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.5
1.9
2.4
3.0
3.8
4.6
5.5
6.5
7.6
8.7
9.8
10.8
11.8
12.7
13.3
0.0–0.2
0.1–0.2
0.1–0.3
0.3–0.5
0.4–0.6
0.5–0.8
0.7–1.0
1.0–1.3
1.3–1.7
1.7–2.1
2.2–2.7
2.7–3.3
3.4–4.1
4.2–5.0
5.1–6.0
6.0–7.1
6.9–8.3
7.9–9.5
8.9–10.8
9.8–12.0
10.4–13.4
10.6–15.1
10.4–16.9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
CI ? confidence interval.
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relationship between patient-specific risk scores and in-
fection risk using logistic regression. In this model, infec-
tion was the outcome variable and risk score (modeled
as a cubic polynomial function) was the explanatory
variable.
We validated the models internally by calculating
measures of calibration and discrimination. We as-
sessed calibration graphically by comparing observed
versus predicted values across levels of predicted risk
and used the Hosmer-Lemeshow test to assess
whether the observed differences were statistically
significant. We assessed discrimination by calculating
the c statistic. Because the models were developed and
validated in the same sample, we used the method of
bootstrap resampling to adjust the c statistic to obtain
an approximately unbiased assessment of future model
performance.
Results
Demographic Characteristics and Infection
We analyzed a total of 30,078 cases in the Society of
Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Cardiac Surgery Data-
base. From this cohort, 857 patients (2.8%) had major
infection (2.6% septicemia, 0.3% mediastinitis, 0.09% en-
docarditis). Thirty-two patients had more than one type
of infection. Of patients with major infection, the mean
age was 6.5 months (versus 2.4 years for the entire
cohort). Fifty-five percent of patients were male in both
the entire cohort and in those with major infection.
Both mortality and length of stay were greater in the
group of patients that experienced major infection
(mortality, 22.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 19.4 to
25.1 versus 3.0%; 95% CI, 2.8 to 3.2; length of stay ?21
days, 69.9%; 95% CI, 66.7 to 73.0 versus 10.7%; 95% CI,
10.3 to 11.0). The percentage of patients with infection
decreased as a function of time from 3.7% in 2002 to
2.2% in 2006.
A number of variables were associated with major
infection in univariate analysis (Table 1), including ABC
score, RACHS-1 score, age, weight, weight-for-age-
and-sex, preoperative ventilatory support or tracheos-
tomy, longer preoperative stay, preoperative acidosis,
preoperative shock, the presence of certain known
genetic abnormalities (eg, 22q11 deletion, DiGeorge
syndrome, asplenia), and year of surgery. The presence
of a genetic abnormality was also associated with
major infection in univariate analysis; however, there
were some specific abnormalities that were not associ-
ated with an increased risk of infection, such as trisomy
21, Marfan syndrome, Alagille syndrome, and Wil-
liams-Beuren syndrome.
Multivariable Regression Model
Independent variables associated with increased infec-
tion risk in multivariable analysis were age (modeled as
a continuous variable), previous cardiac operation, pre-
operative length of stay more than 1 day, preoperative
ventilator support or tracheostomy, any genetic abnor-
mality, medium or high complexity score, and year of
surgery (Table 2). In the reduced model, variables that
remained after backward selection were age younger
than 90 days, age 90 days to 3 years, age 3 to 5 years,
medium complexity score, high complexity score, length
of stay more than 1 day, preoperative ventilator support
or tracheostomy, previous cardiothoracic operation, and
any genetic abnormality (Table 3). The variables most
strongly associated with major infection were age
younger than 90 days, age 90 days to 3 years, and high
complexity score.
Risk Scoring System
The bedside tool model had good predictive ability
(bootstrap-adjusted c index, 0.781). Table 4 was gener-
ated to be used clinically to estimate risk of major
infection given a specific point score. Estimated risk of
infection exhibited a nonlinear relationship with risk
score and ranged from 0% to 13.3% (Fig 1A). Distribution
of risk scores is shown in Figure 1B.
Fig 1. (A) Bedside tool model of predicted risk
in relation to risk score. Solid line represents
model estimate. Dotted line represents 95%
confidence interval. The x axis denotes risk
score, and the y axis denotes estimated infec-
tion risk. (B) Distribution of study population
by risk score category. The x axis denotes risk
score, and the y axis represents total number of
patients.
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Validation of Model
Each model had good predictive ability, with no differ-
ence in the predictive ability of the full model (c index,
0.785) versus the reduced model (c index, 0.786), and
only slightly increased predictive ability of both full
and reduced models versus the bedside tool (c index,
0.781). Internal calibration of the risk tool was excel-
lent, with close agreement between predicted and
observed infection rates (Fig 2; goodness of fit ?2, 17.8;
p ? 0.66). Observed versus predicted rates of infection for
the 10 most common procedures are listed in Table 5.
Comment
Our study confirms that major infection after congenital
heart surgery is a complication with significant sequelae.
Using a large multicenter patient population, we identi-
fied risk factors for major infection and created a clinical
tool that can be used preoperatively to estimate a pa-
tient’s infection risk. We validated the model internally
showing that it has good discrimination.
Previous studies have evaluated risk factors for specific
types of postoperative infections. Cardiopulmonary by-
pass, reintubation, and surgical site infection increase the
risk of bloodstream infection [22]. Risk factors for surgical
site infection include undergoing more than one cardio-
thoracic procedure, preoperative infection, surgery on a
Monday, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists
score, higher Pediatric Risk of Mortality score, perioper-
ative hypothermia, open chest after surgery, need for
reexploration, nasal colonization with Staphylococcus au-
reus, longer duration of surgery, longer preoperative stay,
and younger age [4, 5, 7–9, 17, 23, 24]. Previously reported
risk factors for mediastinitis include having a genetic
syndrome, higher American Society of Anesthesiologists
score, and longer duration of pacing wires [25]. In con-
trast to our study, these studies were done at single
centers, with relatively small sample sizes, and none
evaluated for a clinically significant composite end point
of major infection. Additionally, none of these studies
developed a model using preoperative factors that can be
used clinically to predict risk of major infection.
In this study, the factors significantly associated with
infection by multivariable analysis were largely similar to
risk factors previously identified. The factors that ac-
counted for the greatest increase in risk were young age
and high complexity. Weight was associated with infec-
tion in univariate analysis, but weight-for-age-and-sex
did not remain a risk factor with multivariable analysis.
This suggests that weight may be a predictor of major
infection as it correlates with age; however, there is no
evidence of an association between weight and infection
after accounting for age and other risk factors. Likewise,
preoperative hemodynamic compromise (preoperative
acidosis, circulatory support, or shock) was not a predic-
tor of major infection in either the full or reduced model.
Some previous studies have included leaving the chest
open postoperatively as a risk factor [4, 7, 24]. Because the
purpose of our investigation was to identify preoperative
Fig 2. Observed versus predicted risk of infection during internal cali-
bration of bedside model. Squares correspond to observed risk for each
unique value of the risk score. Solid lines correspond to 95% confidence
intervals. Goodness of fit ?2? 17.8; p ? 0.66. The x axis denotes pre-
dicted infection risk, and the y axis shows observed infection risk.
Table 5. Predicted Versus Observed Rates of Major Infection in the 10 Most Common Procedures
Procedure
Number of
Procedures
Infection Rate,
Observed (%) (95% CI)
Infection Rate,
Predicted (%)
Ventricular septal defect repair
Atrial septal defect repair
Complete atrioventricular septal defect repair
Norwood procedure
Bidirectional Glenn procedure
Coarctation repair, end to end, extended
Modified Blalock-Taussig shunt
Tetralogy of Fallot repair
Patent ductus arteriosus closure
Right ventricular outflow tract procedure
2,527
1,240
1,218
1,131
1,070
1,030
1,013
943
924
897
1.3 (0.9–1.8)
0.2 (0.1–0.7)
3.6 (2.6–4.8)
13.4 (11.5–15.6)
2.1 (1.3–3.1)
2.3 (1.5–3.5)
5.9 (4.6–7.6)
2.2 (1.4–3.4)
1.1 (0.5–2.0)
2.0 (1.2–3.2)
1.1
0.4
3.1
8.5
2.3
3.8
5.4
2.6
1.7
1.4
CI ? confidence interval.
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risk factors, and whether or not the chest will be left open
cannot always be determined before surgery, we did not
include this candidate variable in our study.
The incidence of infection in our population was less
than that previously reported. This may be because of the
types of infections included. In this study, only major
infections were included, defined as sepsis, mediastinitis,
and endocarditis, whereas previous studies have often
included other types of infection, such as superficial
surgical site infection and pneumonia. The incidence of
sepsis in this study was less than that reported in previ-
ous studies [3, 7, 10]. The incidence of mediastinitis in this
study was similar to some of the previous studies [8, 12,
13], although somewhat lower than in others [5, 9, 11].
Incidence of endocarditis in our population was lower
than that previously reported [28].
In this study, the rate of infection decreased during the
period studied. One possible explanation is that with
more clinical experience, centers may be more efficient
and are decreasing surgical time and the length of ICU
and hospital stays, all of which contribute to decreased
infection rates. This period has also correlated with
greater emphasis on ICU techniques such as proper
hand-washing and protocols regarding central cathe-
ters. It is possible that this decreasing infection rate is
related to underreporting in the sample, although this
would be less likely to cause a trend within the dataset
than to cause decreased rates when compared with
other studies.
The strengths of this study are that it is based on a
large multicenter cohort, the data were collected pro-
spectively, and the model created can be easily used in
clinical situations. However, there are several limitations.
Pneumonia, a common complication, was not included in
the scoring system because case definitions are difficult
to differentiate from atelectasis, and therefore the model
cannot predict this complication. Also, it is possible that
complications may be underreported, especially if they
occurred after discharge. On-site auditing of roughly 7%
of participating centers has not revealed underreporting
of major infectious complications, although the data
verification audit process was not implemented until
2007 [29]. In addition, when many of these data were
being collected, standard definitions of complications
had not yet been adopted, and as such, there may be
some variability as to infections reported between or
within sites. Preoperative antibiotic protocols were not
recorded in the database, so it impossible to know
what influence this may have had on the results.
Finally, this study does not address practices to pre-
vent major infection in high-risk individuals. There
have been some studies evaluating various practices
with some success [1, 30].
Although the incidence of major infection may be
decreasing as a function of time, it remains a source of
morbidity and mortality in postoperative pediatric car-
diac patients. Further research needs to be done to
develop better protocols to decrease infection rates in
this setting. This model can be used as a tool for risk
stratification as various interventions are studied. Al-
though the model created here has good internal validity,
it needs to be validated externally. Additionally, further
studies are needed to identify intraoperative and postop-
erative risk factors for major infection, as some of these
may be modifiable.
The model created and validated in this study can have
important clinical impact as it provides a preoperative
estimate of an individual patient’s risk for major infec-
tious complications. Identification of these high-risk pa-
tients is useful in preoperative counseling by helping
parents and providers to know what obstacles may lie
ahead. In addition, these identified high-risk patients
may be targeted for future clinical trials and interven-
tions to reduce this complication of cardiac surgery.
Doctor Benjamin receives support from the National Institutes of
Health(grantnumbers1R01HD057956-02,1R01FD003519-01,1U10-
HD45962-06, 1K24HD058735-01, and HHSN267200700051C) and
the Thrasher Research Foundation.
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Southern Thoracic Surgical Association:
Fifty-Seventh Annual Meeting—Call for Abstracts
You are invited to submit abstracts and surgical motion
pictures for the Southern Thoracic Surgical Association
(STSA) Fifty-Seventh Annual Meeting to be held at the
Disney Yacht & Beach Club in Orlando, Florida, November
3–6, 2010.
To submit an abstract, access the online submission site via
a link on the STSA website at www.stsa.org or directly at http://
STSA2010.abstractcentral.com. Abstracts must be submitted by
Monday, April 12, 2010 at 11:59 PM, Eastern Time. Accepted
abstracts will be presented at the STSA Fifty-Seventh Annual
Meeting as oral presentations or surgical videos.
Please direct any questions regarding abstract submis-
sion to Katie Bochenek, STSA Affiliate Manager, at
kbochenek@stsa.org or call 312-202-5835.
850
BARKER ET AL
MAJOR INFECTION RISK MODEL
Ann Thorac Surg
2010;89:843–50
© 2010 by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons
Published by Elsevier Inc
Ann Thorac Surg 2010;89:850• 0003-4975/10/$36.00
PEDIATRIC CARDIAC