Markers of atherosclerosis and inflammation for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

Department of Ambulatory Care and Community Medicine, Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University of Lausanne, 1011Lausanne, Switzerland.
American journal of epidemiology (Impact Factor: 4.98). 03/2010; 171(5):540-9. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwp428
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Although both inflammatory and atherosclerosis markers have been associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, data directly comparing their predictive value are limited. The authors compared the value of 2 atherosclerosis markers (ankle-arm index (AAI) and aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV)) and 3 inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha)) in predicting CHD events. Among 2,191 adults aged 70-79 years at baseline (1997-1998) from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study cohort, the authors examined adjudicated incident myocardial infarction or CHD death ("hard" events) and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization (total CHD events). During 8 years of follow-up between 1997-1998 and June 2007, 351 participants developed total CHD events (197 "hard" events). IL-6 (highest quartile vs. lowest: hazard ratio = 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.33, 2.49; P-trend < 0.001) and AAI (AAI < or = 0.9 vs. AAI 1.01-1.30: hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.14, 2.18) predicted CHD events above traditional risk factors and modestly improved global measures of predictive accuracy. CRP, TNF-alpha, and aPWV had weaker associations. IL-6 and AAI accurately reclassified 6.6% and 3.3% of participants, respectively (P's < or = 0.05). Results were similar for "hard" CHD, with higher reclassification rates for AAI. IL-6 and AAI are associated with future CHD events beyond traditional risk factors and modestly improve risk prediction in older adults.

  • The Journal of Rheumatology 10/2014; 41(10):2086. DOI:10.3899/jrheum.140250 · 3.17 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Background Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline ECG abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. Methods We examined a prospective cohort of 2915 participants aged 70-79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997-June 1998 in the Health Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index (NRI). Results At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 (16.6%) participants developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR = 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events and 1.4% of the overall population. The NRI across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). Conclusions Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk for HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.
    American Heart Journal 06/2014; 167(6). DOI:10.1016/j.ahj.2014.03.020 · 4.56 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is an inflammatory cytokine whose levels increase significantly during myocardial infarction (MI). It has been hypothesised that the concentrations of IL-6 at admission may be useful in prognosticating long-term outcomes. It is unclear, however, whether IL-6 could improve the prognosis of early mortality in MI. We have compared serum IL-6 levels and analysed the disease course in 158 patients with ST-elevation MI (STEMI) who either survived (n = 148) or died (n = 10) within 30 days following the admission. Patients were treated in a single university centre with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The non-survivors (6.3%) displayed most of typical risk factors for poor outcome. In addition they had significantly higher concentrations of IL-6 at hospital admission (median values 8.5 vs. 2.0 pg/ml; p = 0.038). However, they were also significantly older than the survivors (median values 72 vs. 57 years; p = 0.0001). IL-6 levels are known to increase with age and we could confirm a significant correlation between patients' calendar age and circulating IL-6 (p = 0.009). Regression analysis revealed that IL-6 concentrations were significantly affected by patients' age but they did not independently relate to patients' outcome. Such results indicate that circulating IL-6 at admission may be of limited value in predicting early mortality in STEMI. It is important to recognize that, because of the small group of patients who died (N = 10), the results must be interpreted with caution. Therefore, we stress that these results should be viewed as preliminary and further validated in a larger set of patients.
    Immunity & Ageing 01/2014; 11(1):23. DOI:10.1186/s12979-014-0023-7 · 2.32 Impact Factor

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