Clinical and economic outcomes in a population-based European cohort of 948 ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease patients by Markov analysis.
ABSTRACT Forecasting clinical and economic outcomes in ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) patients is complex, but necessary.
To determine: the frequency of treatment-classified clinical states; the probability of transition between states; and the economic outcomes.
Newly diagnosed UC and CD patients, allocated into seven clinical states by medical and surgical treatments recorded in serial 3-month cycles, underwent Markov analysis.
Over 10 years, 630 UC and 318 CD patients had 22,823 and 11,871 cycles. The most frequent clinical outcomes were medical/surgical remission (medication-free) and mild disease (on 5-aminosalicylates, antibiotics, topical corticosteroids), comprising 28% and 62% of UC cycles and 24% and 51% of CD cycles respectively. The probability of drug-response in patients receiving systemic corticosteroids/immunomodulators was 0.74 in UC, 0.66 in CD. Both diseases had similar likelihood of persistent drug-dependency or drug-refractoriness. Surgery was more probable in CD, 0.20, than UC, 0.08. In terms of economic outcomes, surgery was costlier in UC per cycle, but the outlay over 10 years was greater in CD. Drug-refractory UC and CD cases engendered high costs in the cohort.
Most patients on 5-aminosalicylates, corticosteroids and immunomodulators had favourable clinical and economic outcomes over 10 years. Drug-refractory and surgical patients exhibited greater long-term expenses.
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ABSTRACT: No previous correlation between phenotype at diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) and mortality has been performed. We assessed the predictive value of phenotype at diagnosis on overall and disease related mortality in a European cohort of CD patients. Overall and disease related mortality were recorded 10 years after diagnosis in a prospectively assembled, uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of 380 CD patients diagnosed between 1991 and 1993. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for geographic and phenotypic subgroups at diagnosis. Thirty seven deaths were observed in the entire cohort whereas 21.5 deaths were expected (SMR 1.85 (95% CI 1.30-2.55)). Mortality risk was significantly increased in both females (SMR 1.93 (95% CI 1.10-3.14)) and males (SMR 1.79 (95% CI 1.11-2.73)). Patients from northern European centres had a significant overall increased mortality risk (SMR 2.04 (95% CI 1.32-3.01)) whereas a tendency towards increased overall mortality risk was also observed in the south (SMR 1.55 (95% CI 0.80-2.70)). Mortality risk was increased in patients with colonic disease location and with inflammatory disease behaviour at diagnosis. Mortality risk was also increased in the age group above 40 years at diagnosis for both total and CD related causes. Excess mortality was mainly due to gastrointestinal causes that were related to CD. This European multinational population based study revealed an increased overall mortality risk in CD patients 10 years after diagnosis, and age above 40 years at diagnosis was found to be the sole factor associated with increased mortality risk.Gut 05/2006; 55(4):510-8. · 10.73 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract associated with life-long high health care costs. We aimed to determine the effect of disease phenotype on cost. Clinical and economic data of a community-based CD cohort with 10-year follow-up were analyzed retrospectively in relation to Montreal classification phenotypes. In 418 patients, mean total costs of health care for the behavior phenotypes were: nonstricturing-nonpenetrating 1690, stricturing 2081, penetrating 3133 and penetrating-with-perianal-fistula 3356 €/patient-phenotype-year (P<0.001), and mean costs of surgical hospitalization 215, 751, 1293 and 1275 €/patient-phenotype-year respectively (P<0.001). Penetrating-with-perianal-fistula patients incurred significantly greater expenses than penetrating patients for total care, diagnosis and drugs, but not surgical hospitalization. Total costs were similar in the location phenotypes: ileum 1893, colon 1748, ileo-colonic 2010 and upper gastrointestinal tract 1758 €/patient-phenotype-year, but surgical hospitalization costs differed significantly, 558, 209, 492 and 542 €/patient-phenotype-year respectively (P<0.001). By multivariate analysis, the behavior phenotype significantly impacted total, medical and surgical hospitalization costs, whereas the location phenotype affected only surgical costs. Younger age at diagnosis predicted greater surgical expenses. Behavior is the dominant phenotype driving health care cost. Use of the Montreal classification permits detection of cost differences caused by perianal fistula.Journal of Crohn s and Colitis 12/2007; 1(2):87-96. · 3.39 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Markov models are useful when a decision problem involves risk that is continuous over time, when the timing of events is important, and when important events may happen more than once. Representing such clinical settings with conventional decision trees is difficult and may require unrealistic simplifying assumptions. Markov models assume that a patient is always in one of a finite number of discrete health states, called Markov states. All events are represented as transitions from one state to another. A Markov model may be evaluated by matrix algebra, as a cohort simulation, or as a Monte Carlo simulation. A newer representation of Markov models, the Markov-cycle tree, uses a tree representation of clinical events and may be evaluated either as a cohort simulation or as a Monte Carlo simulation. The ability of the Markov model to represent repetitive events and the time dependence of both probabilities and utilities allows for more accurate representation of clinical settings that involve these issues.Medical Decision Making 01/1993; 13(4):322-38. · 2.89 Impact Factor