Conference Paper

A probabilistic loading-dependent model of cascading failure and possible implications for blackouts

Dept. of ECE, Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI, USA
DOI: 10.1109/HICSS.2003.1173909 Conference: System Sciences, 2003. Proceedings of the 36th Annual Hawaii International Conference on
Source: CiteSeer

ABSTRACT Catastrophic disruptions of large, interconnected infrastructure systems are often due to cascading failure. For example, large blackouts of electric power systems are typically caused by cascading failure of heavily loaded system components. We introduce the CASCADE model of cascading failure of a system with many identical components randomly loaded. An initial disturbance causes some components to fail by exceeding their loading limit. Failure of a component causes a fixed load increase for other components. As components fail, the system becomes more loaded and cascading failure of further components becomes likely. The probability distribution of the number of failed components is an extended quasibinomial distribution. Explicit formulas for the extended quasibinomial distribution are derived using a recursion. The CASCADE model in a restricted parameter range gives a new model yielding the quasibinomial distribution. Some qualitative behaviors of the extended quasibinomial distribution are illustrated, including regimes with power tails, exponential tails, and significant probabilities of total system failure.

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Risk of blackouts is more than expected and must be considered in the power system studies. The interest of this paper is to minimize the blackouts risk during minimizing the costs in probabilistic transmission expansion planning (TEP). In this paper, a long-term reliability analysis, which was developed by self-organized criticality theory, is used in a multi-objective optimization to include risk of blackouts in TEP. The objective functions are costs and expected energy not supplied. Also, a new formulation for calculating transmission operating cost as a part of cost function is proposed. The problem is solved by a multi-objective particle swarm optimization to find an optimal Pareto set from which the decision-maker can choose the most desirable one, regarding existing budget. The proposed method is applied to the IEEE 118-bus test system to investigate its applicability and scalability. The results are compared with security-constrained TEP, which uses famous deterministic criterion known as N-1. The proposed approach produces more efficient plans for suppressing cascading blackouts with less network investment. Moreover, the results provide motivation for considering the risk of cascading blackouts in TEP, which afford substantial saving to society.
    Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on 12/2014; DOI:10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2370065 · 3.53 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: When the modern electrical infrastructure is undergoing a migration to the Smart Grid, vulnerability and security concerns have also been raised regarding the cascading failure threats in this interconnected transmission system with complex communication and control challenge. The DC power flow-based model has been a popular model to study the cascading failure problem due to its efficiency, simplicity and scalability in simulations of such failures. However, due to the complex nature of the power system and cascading failures, the underlying assumptions in DC power flow-based cascading failure simulators (CFS) may fail to hold during the development of cascading failures. This paper compares the validity of a typical DC power flow-based CFS in cascading failure analysis with a new numerical metric defined as the critical moment (CM). The adopted CFS is first implemented to simulate system behavior after initial contingencies and to evaluate the utility of DC-CFS in cascading failure analysis. Then the DC-CFS is compared against another classic, more precise power system stability methodology, i.e., the transient stability analysis (TSA). The CM is introduced with a case study to assess the utilization of these two models for cascading failure analysis. Comparative simulations on the IEEE 39-bus and 68-bus benchmark reveal important consistency and discrepancy between these two approaches. Some suggestions are provided for using these two models in the power grid cascading failure analysis.
    IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 01/2015; 30(1-1):285-297. DOI:10.1109/TPWRS.2014.2322082 · 3.53 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Recent studies have shown that power system blackouts occur much more likely than might be expected, and their probability distribution follows power law. Cascading outages have been reported as the major cause of the large blackouts; therefore, the risk of cascading outages is significant and should be considered in operating and planning assessments of the power systems. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Power Systems Engineering Research Center and University of Alaska (OPA) is a model developed on the basis of self-organized criticality to study cascading outages of transmission lines. In this paper, a modified version of the OPA model is used for considering risk of cascading transmission line outages in transmission expansion planning. The proposed method finds a set of effective candidate lines having higher capability for suppressing cascading outages; then, the original OPA is exploited over the planning horizon to analyze long-term reliability of the system. The benefit of each prospective transmission line is derived by the following two innovations in calculating the risk of blackouts: (i) the power law for finding the probability of blackouts; and (ii) a nonlinear estimation of the cost of the blackouts. Accordingly, the savings associated to each candidate line is calculated. These values are used to find the optimal plan using benefit/cost analysis. Two IEEE test systems are investigated to examine the applicability and scalability of the proposed method. The investigations revealed that the proposed method provides more effective scenarios, which entail considerable saving to society. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems 08/2014; DOI:10.1002/etep.1982 · 0.63 Impact Factor

Full-text (2 Sources)

Available from
May 16, 2014