Servicios ambientales hidrológicos bajo escenarios de cambio climático en el Parque Nacional "El Chico", Hidalgo, México

Madera Bosques (Impact Factor: 0.29). 12/2008;
Source: OAI


Los servicios ambientales que proveen los ecosistemas están en función, entre otros aspectos, de las condiciones climáticas predominantes en un determinado lugar, así como de la estructura y composición de los tipos de vegetación. Por lo anterior, el principal objetivo del presente estudio fue simular y cuantificar los impactos que un posible cambio climático puede ejercer sobre la regulación hídrica y la capacidad
de recarga de acuíferos en el Parque Nacional “El Chico”, Hidalgo. Se realizó la modelación de la distribución geográfica de las variables temperatura y precipitación tomando como periodo base 1961-1990 y se aplicaron las razones de cambio obtenidas de los modelos de cambio climático norteamericano e inglés para el escenario A2 y los años 2020 y 2050. El comportamiento hídrico y la capacidad de infiltración en los diferentes escenarios se evaluaron a partir del balance de humedad obtenido con la
metodología de Thornthwaite III modificado.

Download full-text


Available from: Alejandro Ismael Monterroso Rivas, Oct 04, 2015
19 Reads
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources. It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios — but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would rise by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction in populations in stressed countries under HadCM2 (of around 69 million), but an increase of 56 million under HadCM3. The study also showed that different indications of the impact of climate change on water resource stresses could be obtained using different projections of future water use. The paper emphasises the large range between estimates of “impact”, and also discusses the problems associated with the scale of analysis and the definition of indices of water resource impact.
    Global Environmental Change 10/1999; 9(9). DOI:10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00017-5 · 5.09 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: An increasing amount of information is being collected on the ecological and socio-economic value of goods and services provided by natural and semi-natural ecosystems. However, much of this information appears scattered throughout a disciplinary academic literature, unpublished government agency reports, and across the World Wide Web. In addition, data on ecosystem goods and services often appears at incompatible scales of analysis and is classified differently by different authors. In order to make comparative ecological economic analysis possible, a standardized framework for the comprehensive assessment of ecosystem functions, goods and services is needed. In response to this challenge, this paper presents a conceptual framework and typology for describing, classifying and valuing ecosystem functions, goods and services in a clear and consistent manner. In the following analysis, a classification is given for the fullest possible range of 23 ecosystem functions that provide a much larger number of goods and services. In the second part of the paper, a checklist and matrix is provided, linking these ecosystem functions to the main ecological, socio–cultural and economic valuation methods.
    Ecological Economics 02/2002; 41(3-41):393-408. DOI:10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00089-7 · 2.72 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Grain maize is a crop that is limited by both temperature and moisture availability in Europe. Thermal requirement data for different phases of development allowed the sensitivity of the European growing season to climate change to be tested. Within the thermal limits to crop development there are clearly differences in crop water relations, depending on soil water holding capacity, precipitation amount and potential evapotranspiration (PET). These factors are combined together in a crop-specific water balance model. The sensitivity of grain maize to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested with the model. Uncertainties are evident in the use of the Thornthwaite method of calculating PET. It is clear that increased temperatures will lead to increased PET. A temperature change of +2°C has a significant negative effect on the water balance output. A 10% increase in precipitation offsets this negative effect. These effects are partly offset by a shortened growing season, which leads to a lower accumulated water deficit. The result is compounded when the timing of sowing is taken into account. There is a net benefit from being able to sow earlier under a warmer climate. It remains clear that conditions will continue to be water limited for grain maize production in southern Europe, and in many areas of expanded thermal potential. -Authors
    Climate Research 01/1992; 2(2):113-129. DOI:10.3354/cr002113 · 2.50 Impact Factor
Show more