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Servicios ambientales hidrológicos bajo escenarios de cambio climático en el Parque Nacional "El Chico", Hidalgo, México

Madera Bosques (Impact Factor: 0.07). 12/2008;
Source: OAI

ABSTRACT Los servicios ambientales que proveen los ecosistemas están en función, entre otros aspectos, de las condiciones climáticas predominantes en un determinado lugar, así como de la estructura y composición de los tipos de vegetación. Por lo anterior, el principal objetivo del presente estudio fue simular y cuantificar los impactos que un posible cambio climático puede ejercer sobre la regulación hídrica y la capacidad
de recarga de acuíferos en el Parque Nacional “El Chico”, Hidalgo. Se realizó la modelación de la distribución geográfica de las variables temperatura y precipitación tomando como periodo base 1961-1990 y se aplicaron las razones de cambio obtenidas de los modelos de cambio climático norteamericano e inglés para el escenario A2 y los años 2020 y 2050. El comportamiento hídrico y la capacidad de infiltración en los diferentes escenarios se evaluaron a partir del balance de humedad obtenido con la
metodología de Thornthwaite III modificado.

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    ABSTRACT: By 2025, it is estimated that around 5 billion people, out of a total population of around 8 billion, will be living in countries experiencing water stress (using more than 20% of their available resources). Climate change has the potential to impose additional pressures in some regions. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of climate change for global hydrological regimes and water resources. It uses climate change scenarios developed from Hadley Centre climate simulations (HadCM2 and HadCM3), and simulates global river flows at a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model. Changes in national water resources are calculated, including both internally generated runoff and upstream imports, and compared with national water use estimates developed for the United Nations Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World. Although there is variation between scenarios, the results suggest that average annual runoff will increase in high latitudes, in equatorial Africa and Asia, and southeast Asia, and will decrease in mid-latitudes and most subtropical regions. The HadCM3 scenario produces changes in runoff which are often similar to those from the HadCM2 scenarios — but there are important regional differences. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover. This has implications for the timing of streamflow in such regions, with a shift from spring snow melt to winter runoff. Under the HadCM2 ensemble mean scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would increase by 53 million by 2025 (relative to those who would be affected in the absence of climate change). Under the HadCM3 scenario, the number of people living in countries with water stress would rise by 113 million. However, by 2050 there would be a net reduction in populations in stressed countries under HadCM2 (of around 69 million), but an increase of 56 million under HadCM3. The study also showed that different indications of the impact of climate change on water resource stresses could be obtained using different projections of future water use. The paper emphasises the large range between estimates of “impact”, and also discusses the problems associated with the scale of analysis and the definition of indices of water resource impact.
    Global Environmental Change. 01/1999;
  • Ecological Economics 01/2002; · 2.86 Impact Factor
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    Climate Research - CLIMATE RES. 01/1992; 2:113-129.

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