Risk prediction models for the development of diabetes in Mauritian Indians.
ABSTRACT To develop risk prediction models of future diabetes in Mauritian Indians.
Three thousand and ninety-four Mauritian Indians (1141 men, aged 20-65 years) without diabetes in 1987 or 1992 were followed up to 1992 or 1998. Subjects underwent repeated oral glucose tolerance tests and diabetes was diagnosed according to 2006 World Health Organization/International Diabetes Federation criteria. Cox regression models for interval censored data were performed using data from 1544 randomly selected participants. Predicted probabilities for diabetes were calculated and validated in the remaining 1550 subjects.
Over 11 years of follow-up, there were 511 cases of diabetes. Among variables tested, family history of diabetes, obesity (body mass index, waist circumference) and glucose were significant predictors of diabetes. Predicted probabilities derived from a simple model fitted with sex, family history of diabetes and obesity ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AROC) of predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64 (0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.72 (0.71-0.74) and 0.47 (0.45-0.49) in men and 0.77 (0.75-0.78) and 0.50 (0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. Addition of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) to the model improved the prediction slightly [AROC curve 0.70 (0.65-0.76) in men, 0.71 (0.67-0.76) in women].
A diabetes prediction model based on obesity and family history yielded moderate discrimination in Mauritian Indians, which was slightly inferior to the model with the FPG but may be useful in low-income countries to promote identification of people at high risk of diabetes.
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ABSTRACT: India has nearly 33 million diabetic subjects today, which is briefly contributed by the urban population. The scenario is changing rapidly due to socio-economic transition occurring in the rural areas also. Availability of improved modes of transport, and less strenuously as in the vicinity have resulted in decreased physical activities. Better economic conditions have produced changes in diet habits. The conditions are more favourable for expression of diabetes in the population, which already has a racial and genetic susceptibility of the disease. Recent epidemiological data show that the situations are similar throughout the country. Prediabetic conditions like impaired glucose tolerance and impaired fasting glucose are also on the rise, indicating the possibility of further rise in the prevalence of diabetes. Metabolic syndrome, which is a constellation of cardiovascular risk factors, of which hyperglycaemia and insulin resistance are components, is also widely prevalent. The conversion to diabetes is enhanced by the low thresholds for the risk factors, such as age, body mass index and upper body adiposity. Indians have a genetic phenotype characterized by low body mass index, but with high upper body adiposity, high body fat percentage and high level of insulin resistance. With a high genetic predisposition and the high susceptibility to the environmental insults, the Indian population faces a high risk for diabetes and its associated complications. Early diagnosis of high risk groups and appropriate intervention by lifestyle modification may solution for the disease burden.The Journal of the Association of Physicians of India 02/2005; 53:34-8.
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ABSTRACT: To develop a simple self-administered questionnaire identifying individuals with undiagnosed diabetes with a sensitivity of 75% and minimizing the high-risk group needing subsequent testing. A population-based sample (Inter99 study) of 6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years completed a questionnaire on diabetes-related symptoms and risk factors. The participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. The risk score was derived from the first half and validated on the second half of the study population. External validation was performed based on the Danish Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) pilot study. The risk score was developed by stepwise backward multiple logistic regression. The final risk score included age, sex, BMI, known hypertension, physical activity at leisure time, and family history of diabetes, items independently and significantly (P<0.05) associated with the presence of previously undiagnosed diabetes. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.804 (95% CI 0.765-0.838) for the first half of the Inter99 population, 0.761 (0.720-0.803) for the second half of the Inter99 population, and 0.803 (0.721-0.876) for the ADDITION pilot study. The sensitivity, specificity, and percentage that needed subsequent testing were 76, 72, and 29%, respectively. The false-negative individuals in the risk score had a lower absolute risk of ischemic heart disease compared with the true-positive individuals (11.3 vs. 20.4%; P<0.0001). We developed a questionnaire to be used in a stepwise screening strategy for type 2 diabetes, decreasing the numbers of subsequent tests and thereby possibly minimizing the economical and personal costs of the screening strategy.Diabetes Care 04/2004; 27(3):727-33. · 7.74 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is increasingly common, primarily because of increases in the prevalence of a sedentary lifestyle and obesity. Whether type 2 diabetes can be prevented by interventions that affect the lifestyles of subjects at high risk for the disease is not known. We randomly assigned 522 middle-aged, overweight subjects (172 men and 350 women; mean age, 55 years; mean body-mass index [weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], 31) with impaired glucose tolerance to either the intervention group or the control group. Each subject in the intervention group received individualized counseling aimed at reducing weight, total intake of fat, and intake of saturated fat and increasing intake of fiber and physical activity. An oral glucose-tolerance test was performed annually; the diagnosis of diabetes was confirmed by a second test. The mean duration of follow-up was 3.2 years. The mean (+/-SD) amount of weight lost between base line and the end of year 1 was 4.2+/-5.1 kg in the intervention group and 0.8+/-3.7 kg in the control group; the net loss by the end of year 2 was 3.5+/-5.5 kg in the intervention group and 0.8+/-4.4 kg in the control group (P<0.001 for both comparisons between the groups). The cumulative incidence of diabetes after four years was 11 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 6 to 15 percent) in the intervention group and 23 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 29 percent) in the control group. During the trial, the risk of diabetes was reduced by 58 percent (P<0.001) in the intervention group. The reduction in the incidence of diabetes was directly associated with changes in lifestyle. Type 2 diabetes can be prevented by changes in the lifestyles of high-risk subjects.New England Journal of Medicine 06/2001; 344(18):1343-50. · 51.66 Impact Factor