Forecasting the future economic burden of current adolescent overweight: an estimate of the coronary heart disease policy model.

School of Pharmacy, Department of Medicine, University of California, 3333 California St, Suite 420, San Francisco, CA 94118, USA.
American Journal of Public Health (Impact Factor: 4.23). 12/2009; 99(12):2230-7. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2008.152595
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT We predicted the future economic burden attributable to high rates of current adolescent overweight.
We constructed models to simulate the costs of excess obesity and associated diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) among adults aged 35-64 years in the US population in 2020 to 2050.
Current adolescent overweight is projected to result in 161 million life-years complicated by obesity, diabetes, or CHD and 1.5 million life-years lost. The cumulative excess attributable total costs are estimated at $254 billion: $208 billion because of lost productivity from earlier death or morbidity and $46 billion from direct medical costs. Currently available therapies for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, used according to guidelines, if applied in the future, would result in modest reductions in excess mortality (decreased to 1.1 million life-years lost) but increase total excess costs by another $7 billion (increased to $261 billion total).
Current adolescent overweight will likely lead to large future economic and health burdens, especially lost productivity from premature death and disability. Application of currently available medical treatments will not greatly reduce these future burdens of increased adult obesity.

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Objectives: The goal of this study is: (1) to estimate the current direct out-of-pocket (OOP) and indirect non-communicable diseases (NCD) burden on Indonesian households and (2) to project NCD prevalence and burden in 2020 focusing specifically on hypertension, diabetes, heart problems and stroke. Methods: This study relies on econometric analyses based on four waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS). Results: In aggregate, of the NCDs studied, heart problems exert the greatest economic burden on households, costing Int$1.56 billion in OOP and indirect burden in 2010. This was followed by hypertension (Int$1.36 billion), diabetes (Int$0.81 billion) and stroke (Int$0.29 billion). The OOP and indirect burden of these conditions is estimated to be Int$4.02 billion. Diabetes and stroke are expected to have the largest proportional increases in burden by 2020; 56.0% for diabetes and 56.9% for stroke to total Int$1.27 billion and Int$0.45 billion respectively. The burden of heart problems in 2020 is expected to increase by 34.4% to total Int$2.09 billion and hypertension burden will increase by 46.1% to Int$1.99 billion. In 2020, these conditions are expected to impose an economic burden of Int$5.80 billion. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study demonstrates the significant burden of 4 primary NCDs on Indonesian households. In addition to the indirect burden, hypertension, diabetes, heart problems and stroke account for 8% of the nation's OOP healthcare expenditure, and due to rising disease prevalence and an aging population, this figure is expected to increase to 12% by 2020 without a significant health intervention.
    PLoS ONE 06/2014; 9(6):e99572. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0099572 · 3.53 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Over the past few decades, the financial sector has sought to positively contributing to sustainable development through innovative products and services. However, in its business-as-usual the financial sector continues to contribute to military interventions, environmental degradation, growing disparity of incomes, de-coupling of finance and real economy, and global economic crises. This article presents a framework of how to appraise the positive and negative contributions of the financial sector to sustainable development, from a systems perspective. On this base, the article proposes an approach for designing effective finance interventions to complex sustainability problems. Based on similar experiences from studies on water governance and technology development, the approach proposes a participatory procedure, first, to identify the role of the financial sector in complex sustainability problem constellations and, second, to develop intervention strategies for financial intermediaries interested in shifting their role and mitigating the identified problems. We discuss challenges of establishing causal links within the problem constellation, which is a prerequisite for successful intervention design, as well as in the cause–effect structure of the interventions themselves. The article concludes with outlining future research needs.
    03/2014; 4(1). DOI:10.1080/20430795.2014.887349
  • Source
    Obstetrical and Gynecological Survey 01/2012; 67(1):55-63. DOI:10.1097/OGX.0b013e318242ee82 · 2.36 Impact Factor

Full-text (2 Sources)

Available from
Jun 1, 2014