Article

Estimación y clasificación de las víctimas potenciales de un terremoto dañino en el área

Emergencias: Revista de la Sociedad Española de Medicina de Urgencias y Emergencias, ISSN 1137-6821, Vol. 20, Nº. 3, 2008, pags. 198-206 01/2008;
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ABSTRACT Objetivos: Estimar el número potencial de víctimas en un hipotético terremoto de intensidad de grado VIII (EMS), con epicentro en Sierra Elvira (cercano a Granada) y clasificar los heridos en función de la localización y gravedad de sus lesiones. Estos datos se comparan con los estimados para otro terremoto de intensidad IX, mucho menos probable, ubicado en la misma zona. Método: Se ha utilizado el simulador de escenarios sísmicos SES 2002 y las tablas de vulnerabilidad humana propuestas por Di Sopra y Schiavi. Resultados: Los daños esperados en viviendas son: 436 colapsadas, 4.787 con daños muy graves y 21.251 con daños graves. Las víctimas ocasionadas son: 313 muertos, 1.865 heridos (de distinta consideración) y 35.113 personas sin hogar. La clasificación de los heridos por categorías: 73 de 1ª (muy graves, rojos), 258 de 2ª (moderados, amarillos) y 1.534 de 3ª (leves, verdes). La localización más frecuente de las lesiones es en: miembros inferiores (26%), policontusiones (23%), cabeza (19%), miembros superiores (13%), tórax (10%), pelvis (6%) y en último lugar en médula espinal (3%). Conclusiones: Estas estimaciones son fundamentales para ajustar el Plan de Actuación Sanitaria. Indican que la asistencia sanitaria ha de ser escalonada, que necesita establecer en menos de 2 horas un mínimo de 6 Puestos Sanitarios Avanzados para la intervención médica inmediata, y desplegar en menos de 8 horas Unidades de Estabilización Prehospitalaria y Unidades de Rescate Quirúrgico, para estabilización de pacientes críticos. En un terremoto de intensidad IX o en el caso de disminución de operatividad de los hospitales granadinos es también necesario un Hospital de Campaña.

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