Predicting Major Complications after Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy: A Simple Risk Score

Department of Surgery, UMass Surgical Outcomes Analysis & Research, University of Massachusetts Medical School, 55 Lake Avenue North, Worcester, MA 01655, USA.
Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery (Impact Factor: 2.8). 09/2009; 13(11):1929-36. DOI: 10.1007/s11605-009-0979-3
Source: PubMed


Reported morbidity varies widely for laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). A reliable method to determine complication risk may be useful to optimize care. We developed an integer-based risk score to determine the likelihood of major complications following LC.
Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample 1998-2006, patient discharges for LC were identified. Using previously validated methods, major complications were assessed. Preoperative covariates including patient demographics, disease characteristics, and hospital factors were used in logistic regression/bootstrap analyses to generate an integer score predicting postoperative complication rates. A randomly selected 80% was used to create the risk score, with validation in the remaining 20%.
Patient discharges (561,923) were identified with an overall complication rate of 6.5%. Predictive characteristics included: age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, biliary tract inflammation, hospital teaching status, and admission type. Integer values were assigned and used to calculate an additive score. Three groups stratifying risk were assembled, with a fourfold gradient for complications ranging from 3.2% to 13.5%. The score discriminated well in both derivation and validation sets (c-statistic of 0.7).
An integer-based risk score can be used to predict complications following LC and may assist in preoperative risk stratification and patient counseling.

14 Reads
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has become the standard surgical procedure for symptomatic gallbladder disease. The aim of this study was to identify factors that may be predictive of cases that would require a conversion to laparotomy. In the period of 2002-2007, 2015 patients who underwent elective LC were included in the study. Patients were divided into two groups. Group 1 (n = 1914) consisted of patients whose operation was successfully completed with LC. Group 2 (n = 101) consisted of patients who had a conversion. A prospective analysis of parameters, including patient demographics, laboratory values, radiologic data, and intraoperative findings, was performed. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression was used to determine those variables predicting conversion. One-hundred and one (5.0%) patients required a conversion. Significant predictors of conversion to open cholecystectomy in univariate analysis were increasing age, male gender, previous upper abdominal or upper plus lower abdominal incisions, an elevated white blood cell count, high aspartate transaminase, alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin levels, preoperative ultrasound findings of a thickened gallbladder wall and dilated common bile duct, preoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), high-grade adhesion, and scleroatrophic appearance of the gallbladder intraoperatively. Multivariate analysis revealed that a history of previous abdominal surgery, preoperative ERCP, high-grade adhesion, and scleroatrophic appearance of the gallbladder predicted conversion. Patient selection is very important for efficient, safe training in LC. Based on the presented data, pathways could be suggested that enable the surgeon to precisely decide, during LC, when to convert to open surgery.
    Journal of Laparoendoscopic & Advanced Surgical Techniques 06/2010; 20(5):427-34. DOI:10.1089/lap.2009.0457 · 1.34 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Regionalization of care has been proposed for complex operations based on hospital/surgeon volume-mortality relationships. Controversy exists about whether more common procedures should be performed at high-volume centers. Using mortality alone to assess routine operations is hampered by relatively low perioperative mortality. We used a large national database to analyze the risk of major in-hospital complications after laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). Patients undergoing LC were identified in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample 1998-2006 from states with surgeon/hospital identifiers. Previously validated major complications including acute myocardial infarction, pulmonary compromise, postoperative infection, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, hemorrhage, and reoperation were assessed. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed and independent risk factors of complications were identified. A total of 1,102,071 weighted patient discharges were identified, with a complication rate of 6.8%. Univariate analyses showed that advanced age, male gender, and higher Charlson Comorbidity Score were associated with higher complication rates (p < 0.0001). Higher surgeon volume (>or=36/year versus <12/year) and higher hospital volume (>or=225/year versus <or=120/year) were associated with fewer complications (6.7% versus 7.0%, 6.4% versus 7.0%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Multivariable analysis showed that advanced age (65 years or older versus younger than 65 years; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.16; 95% CI, 2.01-2.32), male gender (AOR = 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10-1.19), and comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Score 2 versus 0; AOR = 2.49; 95% CI, 2.34-2.65) were associated with complications. Neither surgeon nor hospital volume was independently associated with increased risk of complications. Major in-hospital complications after LC are associated with individual patient characteristics rather than surgeon or hospital operative volumes. These results suggest regionalization of general surgical procedures might be unnecessary. Rather, careful patient selection and preoperative preparation can diminish overall complication rates.
    Journal of the American College of Surgeons 07/2010; 211(1):73-80. DOI:10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2010.02.050 · 5.12 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Surgery in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is often associated with complications. The aim of our study was to evaluate whether concomitant IBD was associated with an increased risk of postcholecystectomy complications. The study group consisted of 82 consecutive IBD patients who underwent cholecystectomy from January 2001 to October 2010. The control group included 296 cholecystectomy patients without IBD who were randomly selected from the cholecystectomy database. Variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses. There were no significant differences in age, gender, body mass index, presence of gallstones/common bile duct stones, indication for cholecystectomy, and postoperative mortality between the study and control groups. More patients in the study group had postoperative complications than in the control group (17.1% vs. 6.8%, P = 0.005). On multivariate analysis, the presence of concomitant IBD was independently associated with an increased risk for postoperative complications (odds ratio [OR] = 4.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.63-13.20, P = 0.004) after adjusting for age, the presence of cirrhosis, diabetes, body mass index, the use of corticosteroids, immunomodulators, total parental nutrition, or biologics, the presence of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), acute or chronic cholecystitis, cholelithiasis, or prior abdominal surgeries, and indication for surgery (elective vs. emergent). IBD patients undergoing cholecystectomy have a significantly increased risk of postoperative complications. Although further studies are warranted to clarify the reason for these differences, caution should be taken to determine the need and timing of cholecystectomy in IBD patients.
    Inflammatory Bowel Diseases 09/2012; 18(9):1682-8. DOI:10.1002/ibd.21917 · 4.46 Impact Factor
Show more