Predicting Major Complications after Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy: A Simple Risk Score
ABSTRACT Reported morbidity varies widely for laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC). A reliable method to determine complication risk may be useful to optimize care. We developed an integer-based risk score to determine the likelihood of major complications following LC.
Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample 1998-2006, patient discharges for LC were identified. Using previously validated methods, major complications were assessed. Preoperative covariates including patient demographics, disease characteristics, and hospital factors were used in logistic regression/bootstrap analyses to generate an integer score predicting postoperative complication rates. A randomly selected 80% was used to create the risk score, with validation in the remaining 20%.
Patient discharges (561,923) were identified with an overall complication rate of 6.5%. Predictive characteristics included: age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, biliary tract inflammation, hospital teaching status, and admission type. Integer values were assigned and used to calculate an additive score. Three groups stratifying risk were assembled, with a fourfold gradient for complications ranging from 3.2% to 13.5%. The score discriminated well in both derivation and validation sets (c-statistic of 0.7).
An integer-based risk score can be used to predict complications following LC and may assist in preoperative risk stratification and patient counseling.
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ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE To compare outcomes and costs of elective surgery for diverticular disease (DD) with those of other diseases commonly requiring colectomy. DESIGN Multivariable analyses using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to compare outcomes across primary diagnosis while adjusting for age, sex, race, year of admission, and comorbid disease. SETTING A sample of US hospital admissions from 2003-2009. PATIENTS All adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing elective resection of the descending colon or subtotal colectomy who had a primary diagnosis of DD, colon cancer (CC), or inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES In-hospital mortality, postoperative complications, ostomy placement, length of stay, and hospital charges. RESULTS Of the 74 879 patients, 50.52% had DD, 43.48% had CC, and 6.00% had IBD. After adjusting for other variables, patients with DD were significantly more likely than patients with CC to experience in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.37-2.63; P < .001), develop a postoperative infection (1.67; 1.48-1.89; P < .001), and have an ostomy placed (1.87; 1.65-2.11; P < .001). The adjusted total hospital charges for patients with DD were $6678.78 higher (95% CI, $5722.12-$7635.43; P < .001) and length of stay was 1 day longer (95% CI, 0.86-1.14; P < .001) compared with patients with CC. Patients with IBD had the highest in-hospital mortality, highest rates of complications and ostomy placement, longest length of stay, and highest hospital charges. CONCLUSIONS Despite undergoing the same procedure, patients with DD have significantly worse and more costly outcomes after elective colectomy compared with patients with CC but better than patients with IBD. These relatively poor outcomes should be recognized when considering routine elective colectomy after successful nonoperative management of acute diverticulitis.JAMA SURGERY 04/2013; 148(4):316-321. DOI:10.1001/jamasurg.2013.1010 · 4.30 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Background: A Bayes Network was developed for individual risk prediction after cholecystectomy. Validity and robustness were compared with logistic regression analysis (LR). Methods: Clinical databases were created at the Ulm University and St. Franziskus Flensburg hospitals between 2001 and 2010 were comprised of hospitalized cholecystolithiasis patients serving as model and test cohorts, respectively. The probabilities of in-hospital death, prolonged hospitalization (>7 days), relaparotomy and erythrocyte transfusions were predicted based solely on admission data by BN and LR. ROC curves were calculated. Results: The Ulm and Flensburg cohorts consisted of 1,029 and 1,842 patients, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves for predicting death were 94% (p = 0.8) for both BN and LR, 70 vs. 76% (p < 0.001) for prolonged hospitalization, 69 vs. 68% (p = 0.8) for relaparotomy, and 84 vs. 78% (p = 0.1) for ET. Predictability declined for both methods when explanatory values were changed randomly. In contrast to LR, the BN revealed a good robustness to missing values. Conclusion: Both BN and MR predicted the death risk quite accurately. The advantage of BN consists of its robustness to missing values. Moreover, its graphical representation may be helpful for clinical decision making.Digestive surgery 04/2013; 30(1):28-34. DOI:10.1159/000348670 · 1.74 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Complication rates after laparoscopic cholecystectomy vary but are still reported to be up to 17 %. Identifying risk factors for an adverse complication outcome could help to reduce morbidity after laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Our aim was to analyze whether surgeon volume is a vital issue for complication outcome. All complications-minor, major, local and general-were reviewed in a single institution between January 2004 and December 2008 and recorded in a database. Patient's variables, disease related variables and surgeon's variables were noted. The role of surgeon's individual volume per year was analyzed. A stepwise logistic regression model was used. A total of 942 patients were analyzed, among which 70 (7 %) patients with acute cholecystitis and 52 (6 %) patients with delayed surgery for acute cholecystitis. Preoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC) had been performed in 142 (15 %) patients. Complication rates did not differ significantly for surgeon's individual volume (≤10 vs. >10 LC/year, 5.2 vs. 8.2 %, p = 0.203) nor for specialization (laparoscopic vs. non-laparoscopic; 9.2 vs. 6.4 %, p = 0.085) and experience (specialty registration ≤5 vs. >5 years; 5.1 vs. 8.7 %, p = 0.069). The only significant predictors for complications were acute surgery (OR 3.9, 95 % CI 1.8-8.7, p = 0.001) and a history preceding laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) (ERC and delayed surgery for cholecystitis) (OR 8.1, 95 % CI 4.5-14.6: p <0.001). Complications after LC were not significantly associated with a surgeon's individual volume, but most prominently determined by the type of biliary disease.Digestive Diseases and Sciences 10/2013; 59(1). DOI:10.1007/s10620-013-2885-5 · 2.55 Impact Factor