Predictive factors for rebleeding and death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: a multivariate analysis.
ABSTRACT Bleeding from esophageal varices is a leading cause of death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients. The aim of the present single-center study was to identify risk factors predictive of variceal rebleeding and death within 6 weeks of initial treatment.
Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on 310 prospectively documented alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) who underwent 786 endoscopic variceal injection treatments between January 1984 and December 2006. All injections were administered during the first 6 weeks after the patients were treated for their first variceal bleed.
Seventy-five (24.2%) patients experienced a rebleed, 38 within 5 days of the initial treatment and 37 within 6 weeks of their initial treatment. Of the 15 variables studied and included in a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, a bilirubin level >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood during the initial hospital admission were predictors of variceal rebleeding within the first 6 weeks. Seventy-seven (24.8%) patients died, 29 (9.3%) within 5 days and 48 (15.4%) between 6 and 42 days after the initial treatment. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that six variables were predictors of death within the first 6 weeks: encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin level >51 mmol/l, international normalized ratio (INR) >2.3, albumin <25 g/l, and the need for balloon tube tamponade.
Survival was influenced by the severity of liver failure, with most deaths occurring in Child-Pugh grade C patients. Patients with AVH and encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l, INR >2.3, albumin <25 g/l and who require balloon tube tamponade are at increased risk of dying within the first 6 weeks. Bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood were predictors of variceal rebleeding.
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ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Early insertion of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in high-risk patients with acute variceal haemorrhage reduces rebleeding and mortality. However, the economic benefit of utilizing this approach remains unclear. We evaluated the economic implications of introducing early TIPS into routine algorithms for the management of variceal bleeding. METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted in 2009 with variceal haemorrhage to two liver units and eligible for early TIPS insertion were identified retrospectively. The costs of a 12-month follow-up from index bleeding admission were calculated - the actual cost of follow-up and rebleeding in this cohort was compared with the theoretical 12-month follow-up costs of instead inserting an early TIPS at index admission. Our findings were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the cost effectiveness of early TIPS insertion compared with standard care. RESULTS: In 2009, 78 patients were admitted to our units with variceal haemorrhage; 27 patients (35%) were eligible for early TIPS insertion. The actual cost of a 12-month follow-up was £138 473.50. Early TIPS insertion, assuming a 3.2% rebleeding rate, would save £534.70 per patient per year (P<0.0001). On sensitivity analysis, early TIPS dominated standard care up to an early TIPS rebleeding rate of 6% and remained cost-effective up to a rebleeding rate of 12%. CONCLUSION: Early TIPS insertion for high-risk patients with acute variceal bleeding is a cost-efficient intervention. This has important implications for the introduction of early TIPS as standard care and the organization of interventional radiology services.European journal of gastroenterology & hepatology 10/2012; · 1.66 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Purpose All previous studies reported the benefit of antibiotic prophylaxis in cirrhotic patients with either a mixture of nonvariceal and variceal bleeding or variceal bleeding alone. Reports on sole peptic ulcers bleeding are lacking. We aimed to assess the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis in cirrhotic patients with peptic ulcer bleeding after endoscopic interventions and the risk factors associated with recurrent bleeding. Methods A cross-sectional retrospective chart review study was conducted on 148 cirrhotic patients with acute peptic ulcer hemorrhage who underwent therapeutic endoscopic procedures. Patients who received prophylactic intravenous ceftriaxone were classified as group A (n = 38) and those who did not receive antibiotics were classified as group B (n = 110). The outcomes were prevention of infection, length of hospital stay, time of rebleeding, and death. Results More patients suffered from recurrent bleeding and infection in group B than those in group A (28.2 vs. 5.3 %; p = 0.003, and 26.4 vs. 10.5 %; p = 0.043, respectively). The risk factors associated with recurrent bleeding were being male (OR = 3.4; p = 0.024), those with advanced stage of cirrhosis with Child–Pugh’s class C (OR = 3.8; p\0.001), and those without antibiotic prophylaxis (OR = 8.9; p = 0.003). The observed 30-day survival was virtually identical for both groups (p = 0.279). Conclusions Antibiotic prophylaxis in cirrhotic patients after endoscopic interventions for acute peptic ulcer hemorrhage reduced infections and decreased rebleeding. Male gender, cirrhosis Child–Pugh’s class C, and no antibiotic prophylaxis were independent predictors of recurrent bleeding. Further studies should be directed to explore ways to improve the overall outcome of these patients. Keywords Cirrhosis � Upper gastrointestinal bleeding � Peptic ulcers � Antibiotic prophylaxis � Bacterial infections � RebleedingHepatology International 03/2013; 7(1):257-267. · 2.64 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To analyze the clinical risk factors for early variceal rebleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL). 342 cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices who received elective EVL to prevent bleeding or rebleeding at our endoscopy center between January 2005 and July 2010. were included in this study. The early rebleeding cases after EVL were confirmed by clinical signs or endoscopy. A case-control study was performed comparing the patients presenting with early rebleeding with those without this complication. The incidence of early rebleeding after EVL was 7.60%, and the morbidity of rebleeding was 26.9%. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that four variables were independent risk factors for early rebleeding: moderate to excessive ascites [odds ratio (OR) 62.83, 95% CI: 9.39-420.56, P < 0.001], the number of bands placed (OR 17.36, 95% CI: 4.00-75.34, P < 0.001), the extent of varices (OR 15.41, 95% CI: 2.84-83.52, P = 0.002) and prothrombin time (PT) > 18 s (OR 11.35, 95% CI: 1.93-66.70, P = 0.007). The early rebleeding rate after EVL is mainly affected by the volume of ascites, number of rubber bands used to ligate, severity of varices and prolonged PT. Effective measures for prevention and treatment should be adopted before and after EVL.World Journal of Gastroenterology 07/2011; 17(28):3347-52. · 2.55 Impact Factor