The Future of the Drug Discovery Process and the Fate of the Pharmaceutical Industry: An economical and scientific study
ABSTRACT In accordance with the structure of Scientific Revolutions, the Pharmaceutical Industry ran into non-innovative, “deadendstreet” eras, several times during its modern history. Such intellectually infertile periods were followed eachtime by thought Renaissances, due to the application of new modes of thinking and novel philosophies, amountingto nothing less than characteristic Paradigm-shifts. Acceptance of the shift in thought coupled with the applicationof associated novel technologies, resulted each time in a corresponding Breakthrough; one may assign the followingapproximate years to these: 1920s, 1950s, 1980s (within ±5 years), breakthroughs occurring in 30 year intervals.We are now approaching a new Breakthrough, perhaps in 2010 or soon thereafter. Those who marshal in the newtechnology will take advantage of the emerging new Molecular Revolution. In essence, their advanced knowledgewill allow them to apply the new technology before anybody else does, allowing them to become leaders of a multitrillion-dollar Pharmaceutical Industry.