Article

Escenarios de la Quinta República: Análisis prospectivo de la política social y económica integrada del actual gobierno venezolano

Espacio Abierto 01/2003;
Source: DOAJ

ABSTRACT El presente artículo tiene como objetivo analizar dos escenarios sobre políticas sociales y económicas integradas, diseñados para Venezuela en el lapso 2000-2006, correspondiente al primer período presidencial de Hugo Chávez Frías. En primer término, se hacen una serie de consideraciones teóricas acerca del método prospectivo y la técnica de escenarios utilizada en el diseño de los mismos; posteriormente se describen, definen y analizan las variables del estudio, identificando sus determinantes claves, utilizando para ello el análisis de contenido de documentos oficiales del Gobierno. Por último se construyen los escenarios con la ayuda del modelo computarizado XIMPACT, aplicando un conjunto de técnicas matriciales con las cuales se alimenta el programa. El análisis de los dos escenarios seleccionados expresan las acciones de un gobierno que combina políticas de corte neoliberal -control de la inflación a través de las variables macroeconómicascon políticas intervencionistas, donde el Estado tiene un papel preponderante vía expansión del gasto público. Se concluye con algunas reflexiones que procuran generar un debate constructivo y se propone un escenario ideal a ser alcanzado.

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Available from: Norbis Mujica Chirinos, Apr 21, 2015
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