Meta-analysis of the risks of hypertension and QTc prolongation in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer who were receiving vandetanib

University of Lisbon, Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
Physical Review E (Impact Factor: 2.29). 05/2009; 79(4 Pt 1):041922. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.79.041922
Source: PubMed


We show that the simplest stochastic epidemiological models with spatial correlations exhibit two types of oscillatory behavior in the endemic phase. In a large parameter range, the oscillations are due to resonant amplification of stochastic fluctuations, a general mechanism first reported for predator-prey dynamics. In a narrow range of parameters that includes many infectious diseases which confer long lasting immunity the oscillations persist for infinite populations. This effect is apparent in simulations of the stochastic process in systems of variable size and can be understood from the phase diagram of the deterministic pair approximation equations. The two mechanisms combined play a central role in explaining the ubiquity of oscillatory behavior in real data and in simulation results of epidemic and other related models.

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    • "In discrete-time models, global oscillations have been reported [19– 22] and understood analytically [23]. In continuous-time models, the situation is different: in the standard SIRS model with diffusive coupling [24], global oscillations seem not to be stable, even in the favorable condition of global or random coupling [24] [25] [26] [27]. "
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    ABSTRACT: Theoretical studies of synchronization are usually based on models of coupled phase oscillators which, when isolated, have constant angular frequency. Stochastic discrete versions of these uniform oscillators have also appeared in the literature, with equal transition rates among the states. Here we start from the model recently introduced by Wood et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96}, 145701 (2006)], which has a collectively synchronized phase, and parametrically modify the phase-coupled oscillators to render them (stochastically) nonuniform. We show that, depending on the nonuniformity parameter $0\leq \alpha \leq 1$, a mean field analysis predicts the occurrence of several phase transitions. In particular, the phase with collective oscillations is stable for the complete graph only for $\alpha \leq \alpha^\prime < 1$. At $\alpha=1$ the oscillators become excitable elements and the system has an absorbing state. In the excitable regime, no collective oscillations were found in the model.
    Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 01/2012; 391(4). DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2011.10.012 · 1.73 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: In this paper, we consider a simple stochastic epidemic model on large regular random graphs and the stochastic process that corresponds to this dynamics in the standard pair approximation. Using the fact that the nodes of a pair are unlikely to share neighbors, we derive the master equation for this process and obtain from the system size expansion the power spectrum of the fluctuations in the quasistationary state. We show that whenever the pair approximation deterministic equations give an accurate description of the behavior of the system in the thermodynamic limit, the power spectrum of the fluctuations measured in long simulations is well approximated by the analytical power spectrum. If this assumption breaks down, then the cluster approximation must be carried out beyond the level of pairs. We construct an uncorrelated triplet approximation that captures the behavior of the system in a region of parameter space where the pair approximation fails to give a good quantitative or even qualitative agreement. For these parameter values, the power spectrum of the fluctuations in finite systems can be computed analytically from the master equation of the corresponding stochastic process.
    Physical Review E 11/2009; 80(5 Pt 1):051915. DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.051915 · 2.29 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: We study a modified version of the stochastic susceptible-infected-refractory-susceptible (SIRS) model by employing a nonlinear (exponential) reinforcement in the contagion rate and no diffusion. We run simulations for complete and random graphs as well as d-dimensional hypercubic lattices (for d=3,2,1). For weak nonlinearity, a continuous nonequilibrium phase transition between an absorbing and an active phase is obtained, such as in the usual stochastic SIRS model [Joo and Lebowitz, Phys. Rev. E 70, 036114 (2004)]. However, for strong nonlinearity, the nonequilibrium transition between the two phases can be discontinuous for d>or=2, which is confirmed by well-characterized hysteresis cycles and bistability. Analytical mean-field results correctly predict the overall structure of the phase diagram. Furthermore, contrary to what was observed in a model of phase-coupled stochastic oscillators with a similar nonlinearity in the coupling [Wood, Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 145701 (2006)], we did not find a transition to a stable (partially) synchronized state in our nonlinearly pulse-coupled excitable elements. For long enough refractory times and high enough nonlinearity, however, the system can exhibit collective excitability and unstable stochastic oscillations.
    Physical Review E 12/2009; 80(6 Pt 1):061105. DOI:10.1103/PhysRevE.80.061105 · 2.29 Impact Factor
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