Economic Return From the Women's Health Initiative Estrogen Plus Progestin Clinical Trial: A Modeling Study.
ABSTRACT The findings of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) estrogen plus progestin (E+P) trial led to a substantial reduction in use of combined hormone therapy (cHT) among postmenopausal women in the United States. The economic effect of this shift has not been evaluated relative to the trial's $260 million cost (2012 U.S. dollars).
To estimate the economic return from the WHI E+P trial.
Decision model to simulate health outcomes for a "WHI scenario" with observed cHT use and a "no-WHI scenario" with cHT use extrapolated from the pretrial period.
Primary analyses of WHI outcomes, peer-reviewed literature, and government sources.
Postmenopausal women in the United States, aged 50 to 79 years, who did not have a hysterectomy.
2003 to 2012.
Combined hormone therapy.
Disease incidence, expenditure, quality-adjusted life-years, and net economic return.
The WHI scenario resulted in 4.3 million fewer cHT users, 126 000 fewer breast cancer cases, 76 000 fewer cardiovascular disease cases, 263 000 more fractures, 145 000 more quality-adjusted life-years, and expenditure savings of $35.2 billion. The corresponding net economic return of the trial was $37.1 billion ($140 per dollar invested in the trial) at a willingness-to-pay level of $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year.
The 95% CI for the net economic return of the trial was $23.1 to $51.2 billion.
No evaluation of indirect costs or outcomes beyond 2012.
The WHI E+P trial made high-value use of public funds with a substantial return on investment. These results can contribute to discussions about the role of public funding for large, prospective trials with high potential for public health effects.
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
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ABSTRACT: Breast cancer is an increasing public health problem. Substantial advances have been made in the treatment of breast cancer, but the introduction of methods to predict women at elevated risk and prevent the disease has been less successful. Here, we summarize recent data on newer approaches to risk prediction, available approaches to prevention, how new approaches may be made, and the difficult problem of using what we already know to prevent breast cancer in populations. During 2012, the Breast Cancer Campaign facilitated a series of workshops, each covering a specialty area of breast cancer to identify gaps in our knowledge. The risk-and-prevention panel involved in this exercise was asked to expand and update its report and review recent relevant peer-reviewed literature. The enlarged position paper presented here highlights the key gaps in risk-and-prevention research that were identified, together with recommendations for action. The panel estimated from the relevant literature that potentially 50% of breast cancer could be prevented in the subgroup of women at high and moderate risk of breast cancer by using current chemoprevention (tamoxifen, raloxifene, exemestane, and anastrozole) and that, in all women, lifestyle measures, including weight control, exercise, and moderating alcohol intake, could reduce breast cancer risk by about 30%. Risk may be estimated by standard models potentially with the addition of, for example, mammographic density and appropriate single-nucleotide polymorphisms. This review expands on four areas: (a) the prediction of breast cancer risk, (b) the evidence for the effectiveness of preventive therapy and lifestyle approaches to prevention, (c) how understanding the biology of the breast may lead to new targets for prevention, and (d) a summary of published guidelines for preventive approaches and measures required for their implementation. We hope that efforts to fill these and other gaps will lead to considerable advances in our efforts to predict risk and prevent breast cancer over the next 10 years.Breast cancer research: BCR 09/2014; 16(5):446. DOI:10.1186/s13058-014-0446-2 · 5.88 Impact Factor