Using Pneumococcal Carriage Data to Monitor Postvaccination Changes in Invasive Disease

American journal of epidemiology (Impact Factor: 5.23). 09/2013; 178(9). DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwt156
Source: PubMed


Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced worldwide. However, few developing countries have high-quality surveillance systems available for monitoring vaccine impact. We evaluated whether data from nasopharyngeal carriage studies can be used to accurately monitor post-PCV changes in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children under 5 years of age. For various dates during 1991-2010, data on nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage and on IPD before and after administration of 7-valent PCV (PCV7) were available from England and Wales, the Netherlands, the Navajo and White Mountain Apache American Indian populations, and the US states of Massachusetts and Alaska. We estimated the change in carriage prevalence for each serotype in each study and then either calculated the average change (inverse variance-weighted) among vaccine and nonvaccine serotypes (model 1) or used mixed-effects models to estimate the change for each serotype individually, pooling serotype data within or between studies (models 2 and 3). We then multiplied these values by the proportion of IPD caused by each serotype during the pre-PCV7 period to obtain an estimate of post-PCV7 disease incidence. Model 1 accurately captured overall changes in IPD incidence following PCV7 introduction for most studies, while the more detailed models, models 2 and 3, were less accurate. Carriage data can be used in this simple model to estimate post-PCV changes in IPD incidence.

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Available from: Lindsay Grant, Jul 31, 2014
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    • "Replacement with pneumococcal serotypes that have a lower invasiveness potential (as measured by case:carrier ratios; CCRs) than the PCV13 serotypes should produce a net reduction in IPD, while emergence of highly invasive serotypes indicates the potential for replacement disease with non-vaccine serotypes. The invasiveness of different pneumococcal serotypes will therefore determine the extent to which serotype replacement in carriage will result in changes to IPD in the population [11] [12]. "
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    ABSTRACT: In April 2010 the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was replaced by the 13-valent PCV. We investigated pneumococcal carriage in children eligible for PCV7 or PCV13 and their household contacts. Eligible families in Hertfordshire and Gloucester were identified and a nasopharyngeal swab obtained from consenting household members between July 2012 and March 2013. Samples were cultured for Streptococcus pneumoniae and serotyped by standard methods. For each serotype the ratio of its prevalence in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) to its carriage prevalence (case:carrier ratio, CCR) was calculated. Results were compared with previous carriage studies in 2001/2002 and 2008/2009, before and after PCV7 introduction. 217 households were included. Among <5-year olds 47.7% (95% confidence interval 41.8-53.5) were carrying a pneumococcus compared with 51.0% (95% CI: 44.0-58.0) in 2008/2009 and 48.4% (95% CI: 44.1-52.7) in 2001/2002. The odds of carrying a PCV7 serotype was significantly reduced in 2008/2009 (0.07, 95% CI: 0.03-0.16) and 2012/2013 (0.01 95% CI: 0.00-0.07) relative to 2001/2002, while the odds of carrying any of the extra six PCV13 serotypes increased after PCV7 introduction (1.38, 95%CI: 0.73-2.59) but declined significantly after PCV13 introduction (0.05, 95%CI: 0.01-0.37). The CCRs for the frequently carried serotypes were relatively low, with the highest CCR observed for serotypes 7F, 19A, 3, 8, and 33F. Across the three carriage studies, CCR estimates were stable for nearly all serotypes. Carriage of additional PCV13 serotypes has rapidly reduced post-PCV13 introduction in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with a continued decline in transmission of PCV7 serotypes. Carriage rates in children remain unchanged, but the low CCRs of replacing serotypes would be expected to further reduce overall IPD across all age groups.
    Vaccine 03/2014; 32(34). DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.03.017 · 3.62 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: In 2003 the World Health Organization (WHO) convened a working group and published a set of standard methods for studies measuring nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus). The working group recently reconvened under the auspices of the WHO and updated the consensus standard methods. These methods describe the collection, transport and storage of nasopharyngeal samples, as well as provide recommendations for the identification and serotyping of pneumococci using culture and non-culture based approaches. We outline the consensus position of the working group, the evidence supporting this position, areas worthy of future research, and the epidemiological role of carriage studies. Adherence to these methods will reduce variability in the conduct of pneumococcal carriage studies undertaken in the context of pneumococcal vaccine trials, implementation studies, and epidemiology studies more generally so variability in methodology does not confound the interpretation of study findings.
    Vaccine 12/2013; 32(1):165-179. DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.08.062 · 3.62 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination has proved highly effective in eliminating vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage and disease. However, the potential adverse effects of serotype replacement remain a major concern when implementing routine childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programmes. Applying a concise predictive model, we present a ready-to-use quantitative tool to investigate the implications of serotype replacement on the net effectiveness of vaccination against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and to guide in the selection of optimal vaccine serotype compositions. We utilise pre-vaccination data on pneumococcal carriage and IPD and assume partial or complete elimination of vaccine-type carriage, its replacement by non-vaccine-type carriage, and stable case-to-carrier ratios (probability of IPD per carriage episode). The model predicts that the post-vaccination IPD incidences in Finland for currently available vaccine serotype compositions can eventually decrease among the target age group of children <5 years of age by 75%. However, due to replacement through herd effects, the decrease among the older population is predicted to be much less (20-40%). We introduce a sequential algorithm for the search of optimal serotype compositions and assess the robustness of inferences to uncertainties in data and assumptions about carriage and IPD. The optimal serotype composition depends on the age group of interest and some serotypes may be highly beneficial vaccine types in one age category (e.g. 6B in children), while being disadvantageous in another. The net effectiveness will be improved only if the added serotype has a higher case-to-carrier ratio than the average case-to-carrier ratio of the current non-vaccine types and the degree of improvement in effectiveness depends on the carriage incidence of the serotype. The serotype compositions of currently available pneumococcal vaccines are not optimal and the effectiveness of vaccination in the population at large could be improved by including new serotypes in the vaccine (e.g. 22 and 9N).
    PLoS Computational Biology 02/2014; 10(2):e1003477. DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003477 · 4.62 Impact Factor
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