Combination HIV Prevention: The Value and Interpretation of Mathematical Models

Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Divisions of Infectious Disease and General Medicine and the Medical Practice Evaluation Center, 50 Staniford Street, 9th Floor, Boston, MA, 02114, USA, .
Current HIV/AIDS Reports (Impact Factor: 3.8). 06/2013; 10(3). DOI: 10.1007/s11904-013-0167-7
Source: PubMed


Mathematical models of HIV prevention interventions often provide critical insights related to programmatic design and economic efficiency. One recent dynamic model by Long et al. highlights that a combination prevention approach - with testing, treatment, circumcision, microbicides and PrEP - may decrease transmissions by over 60 % and may be very cost-effective in South Africa. In this analysis, the authors introduce the critical concept of joint effectiveness of preventions programs and demonstrate how some programs operate synergistically (HIV screening coupled with early treatment) while others may create redundancies (microbicides coupled with pre-exposure prophylaxis). Whether combination HIV prevention programs perform with additive, multiplicative or maximal effectiveness will be important to consider in anticipation of their combined transmission impact.

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    • "A recent mathematical model showed that a combination intervention program of HIV that consists of screening, early ART, male circumcision, the use of microbicides and pre-exposure prophylaxis can avert 62% of HIV infections, while only two interventions of HIV screening and early ART can reduce infections by 34%.82 "
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    ABSTRACT: After more than 30 years of battling a global epidemic, the prospect of eliminating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as the most challenging infectious disease of the modern era is within our reach. Major scientific discoveries about the virus responsible for this immunodeficiency disease state, including its pathogenesis, transmission patterns and clinical course, have led to the development of potent antiretroviral drugs that offer great hopes in HIV treatment and prevention. Although these agents and many others still in development and testing are capable of effectively suppressing viral replication and survival, the medical management of HIV infection at the individual and the population levels remains challenging. Timely initiation of antiretroviral drugs, adherence to the appropriate therapeutic regimens, effective use of these agents in the pre and post-exposure prophylaxis contexts, treatment of comorbid conditions and addressing social and psychological factors involved in the care of individuals continue to be important considerations.International Journal of Oral Science (2013) 5, doi:10.1038/ijos.2013.76; published online 18 October 2013.
    International Journal of Oral Science 10/2013; 5(4). DOI:10.1038/ijos.2013.76 · 2.53 Impact Factor

  • The Lancet Infectious Diseases 03/2015; 15(3). DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70037-X · 22.43 Impact Factor

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