A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic
ABSTRACT The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.
- SourceAvailable from: Xianbo ZhaoJournal of Construction Engineering and Management 09/2013; 139(9):1179–1189. · 0.88 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss and highlight the results of a study that identified critical risks involved in the procurement of community-based infrastructure projects in Zambia. Design/methodology/approach – Brainstorming was chosen as the method for identifying risks in the study. It was applied in the form of group discussions with project management committees at community level to identify potential risks affecting their particular projects. Findings – The identified critical risks were classified into six categories: project initiation; community contribution and participation; budget and finance; skilled labour; materials procurement and technical supervision; and quality control. Several significant risk factors were identified in all these six categories in community-based construction projects. The paper concludes that indeed there are critical risks in community-based construction projects that require forward planning, assessment and mitigation. Originality/value – The consequences of not assessing and managing construction risks in both conventional and community-based procurement systems are that projects may experience time and cost overruns and lead to poor quality structures. It is therefore important to identify risks in community projects.Journal of Engineering Design and Technology 07/2008; 6(2):145-161.
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ABSTRACT: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce a quantitative method for assisting contractors to select appropriate projects for bidding by considering multiple attributes and integrating decision group member opinions. Design/methodology/approach – The fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is used to help contractors make decision on project selection and the linguistic terms are defined for representing the triangular fuzzy numbers for ratings of alternatives and weights of criteria. Findings – The selection of appropriate projects for bidding is a multiple attribute group decision-making exercise. In a real decision process, there are many uncertainties and ambiguities, and time limitations mean that decision makers cannot always make precise judgments. The numerical example demonstrates that the fuzzy TOPSIS approach can be used to simulate the decision process in project selection, and the results provide contractors with valuable insight into the project selection problem. Originality/value – Selecting appropriate projects for bidding is to use a contractor's limited resources more efficiently and increase the probability of winning contracts. Therefore, there is a need for a quantitative method to help contractors make better decision on project selection. That leads to the formulation of this paper. The fuzzy TOPSIS method can assist contractors to make better decisions in bidding.Journal of Modelling in Management 11/2010; 5(3):302-315.