A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic

Construction Management and Economics (Impact Factor: 0.8). 02/2000; 18(4):491-500. DOI: 10.1080/01446190050024905
Source: RePEc

ABSTRACT The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.

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    • "[8] Construction Outlines an approach to the assessment of construction project risk by linguistic analysis using FST. [40] [50] Civil Involves fuzzy set representations of structural damage and related safety analyzes in civil engineering. [32] [36] [41] Others Bank Develops a fuzzy set approach in planning system for liquidity management in bank industry. "
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    ABSTRACT: This paper describes the development of a fuzzy decision support system (FDSS) for the assessment of risk in e-commerce (EC) development. A Web-based prototype FDSS is designed and developed to assist EC project managers in identifying potential EC risk factors and the corresponding project risks. A risk analysis model for EC development using a fuzzy set approach is proposed and incorporated into the FDSS. The results of an evaluation indicate that the prototype performs to expectations.
    Decision Support Systems 08/2005; 40:235-255. DOI:10.1016/j.dss.2003.12.002 · 2.04 Impact Factor
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    • "The potential risk sub–factors were adapted from studies by Baloi and Price (2003), Chapman and Ward (2003), Kartam and Kartam (2001), Lahdenperä (2009), Majamaa et al. (2008), Mbachu and Nkado (2007), Mitkus and Trinkūnienė (2008), Perera et al. (2009), Pinto et al. (2009), Ševčenko et al. (2008), Tah and Carr (2000), and Yang et al. (2009). "
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    ABSTRACT: Risk analysis and management is nowadays a critical factor to successful construction project manage-ment, as construction projects tend to be more complex, dynamic, always unique, and competition increasingly tougher. Risk management helps the project participants – client, contractor, consultant, and supplier – to meet their commitments and minimize negative impacts on construction project scope, cost, schedule (and quality, as a result). The benefits of the risk management process include identifying and analyzing risks, and improvement of project management processes and effective use of resources. This paper reports the research that aimed to discover how Lithuanian contractor perceives the significance of the construction projects risks it faces and the extent to which it employs risk response tactics.
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    • "Risks in construction projects can be defined as the probability of an event that impairs the viability of the project. This probability is perharps, higher than in other industries (Flanagan and Norman, 1993; Kim and Bajaj, 2000; Tah and Car, 2000), due to its inherent characteristics (Bing et al., 1999; Bunni, 1997; Hayes et al., 1986; Kangari and Riggs, 1989). Not all risks should be associated with negative results, because although most of the time this happens, risks can also mean opportunities. "
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    ABSTRACT: Risks in construction projects can be defined as the probability of an event that impairs the viability of the project. This probability, perhaps, is higher than in other industries. In the construction sector, as elsewhere, various risks that affect business can be identified. This paper aims to identify, classify and analyze the most significant risks inherent in large engineering or construction projects, with particular attention to the group of economic risks and developing finally a conclusion in this regard. The results showed that construction projects are exposed to many risk sources, internal and external, being one of the most important, the financial risks such as inflation, fluctuation of the currency, lack of solvency, etc. Construction is a complex area involving many factors that can affect the final outcome, and being a teamwork process whose common goal is the completion of the project, the risks are essentially due to the uncertainty affecting the various participants in it.
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