A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic
ABSTRACT The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.
- SourceAvailable from: Xianbo ZhaoJournal of Construction Engineering and Management 09/2013; 139(9):1179–1189. · 0.88 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Purpose – Proper assessment of contractors' competitiveness is important for assisting contractors in taking internal analysis and for assisting clients in selecting suitable contractors. This paper seeks to address this issue. Design/methodology/approach – With previously identified contractor key competitiveness indicators (KCIs), this study presents a fuzzy competitiveness rating (FCR) method for measuring contractor competitiveness with reference to the Hong Kong construction industry. A set of linguistic terms is used for facilitating the assessment process. Findings – For illustration, an example is used to show the application of the FCR method. The results provide valuable information for helping contractors in the local construction industry to understand their competitive advantages and weaknesses, and to formulate effective competition strategies to improve their competitiveness. Research limitations/implications – The model used in this study is not validated by real cases. In a future paper, the model will be further demonstrated by conducting real case studies, and the linguistic terms and corresponding fuzzy numbers will also be re-defined based on the collected data. Originality/value – As the competitiveness assessment process involves complexity and uncertainty, a fuzzy competitiveness rating method is considered suitable for reflecting the reality and the assessment panel can easily give their opinions by using the linguistic language.Engineering Construction & Architectural Management 05/2011; 18(3):234-247.
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ABSTRACT: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce a quantitative method for assisting contractors to select appropriate projects for bidding by considering multiple attributes and integrating decision group member opinions. Design/methodology/approach – The fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is used to help contractors make decision on project selection and the linguistic terms are defined for representing the triangular fuzzy numbers for ratings of alternatives and weights of criteria. Findings – The selection of appropriate projects for bidding is a multiple attribute group decision-making exercise. In a real decision process, there are many uncertainties and ambiguities, and time limitations mean that decision makers cannot always make precise judgments. The numerical example demonstrates that the fuzzy TOPSIS approach can be used to simulate the decision process in project selection, and the results provide contractors with valuable insight into the project selection problem. Originality/value – Selecting appropriate projects for bidding is to use a contractor's limited resources more efficiently and increase the probability of winning contracts. Therefore, there is a need for a quantitative method to help contractors make better decision on project selection. That leads to the formulation of this paper. The fuzzy TOPSIS method can assist contractors to make better decisions in bidding.Journal of Modelling in Management 11/2010; 5(3):302-315.