Temperature extremes and health: impacts of climate variability and change in the United States.
ABSTRACT We evaluated temperature-related morbidity and mortality for the 2007 U.S. national assessment on impacts of climate change and variability on human health.
We assessed literature published since the 2000 national assessment, evaluating epidemiologic studies, surveys, and studies projecting future impacts.
Under current climate change projections, heat waves and hot weather are likely to increase in frequency, with the overall temperature distribution shifting away from the colder extremes. Vulnerable subgroups include communities in the northeastern and Midwestern U.S.; urban populations, the poor, the elderly, children, and those with impaired health or limited mobility.
Temperature extremes and variability will remain important determinants of health in the United States under climate change. Research needs include estimating exposure to temperature extremes; studying nonfatal temperature-related illness; uniform criteria for reporting heat-related health outcomes; and improving effectiveness of urban heat island reduction and extreme weather response plans.
SourceAvailable from: David Satterthwaite
Chapter: Urban areas01/2014: pages 535-612; Cambridge University Press.
10/2011; 3(4):269-280. DOI:10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00010.1
[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Weather extremes are associated with adverse health outcomes, including mortality. Studies have investigated the mortality risk of temperature in terms of excess mortality, however, this risk estimate may not be appealing to policy makers assessing the benefits expected for any interventions to be adopted. To provide further evidence of the burden of extreme temperatures, we analyzed the effect of temperature on years of life lost (YLL) due to all-cause mortality among the population in two urban informal settlements. YLL was generated based on the life expectancy of the population during the study period by applying a survival analysis approach. Association between daily maximum temperature and YLL was assessed using a distributed lag nonlinear model. In addition, cold spell and heat wave effects, as defined according to different percentiles, were investigated. The exposure-response curve between temperature and YLL was J-shaped, with the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) of 26 °C. An average temperature of 21 °C compared to the MMT was associated with an increase of 27.4 YLL per day (95% CI, 2.7–52.0 years). However, there was no additional effect for extended periods of cold spells, nor did we find significant associations between YLL to heat or heat waves. Overall, increased YLL from OPEN ACCESS Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12 2736 all-causes were associated with cold spells indicating the need for initiating measure for reducing health burdens.International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 03/2015; 12:2735-2748. DOI:10.3390/ijerph120302735 · 1.99 Impact Factor