Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Center for International Development at Harvard University, CID Working Papers 01/1999;
Source: RePEc

ABSTRACT A central question for empirical economics, particularly economic growth, is which explanatory variables to include and exclude in the regressions. This paper aims to identify variables strongly correlated with provincial income growth in the Philippines by applying robustness procedures in determining which variables are strongly correlated with income growth. The extreme bound analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) were applied to fifteen determinants of income growth from a data set consisting of 74 Philippine provinces for the period 1985 to 2003 to test which among the explanatory variables are strongly correlated to growth. The tests show that among the fifteen variables, five variables stand out as being robust. The log of initial income, the ARMM indicator, the expenditure GINI and its square and the proportion of young dependents are all considered as strongly correlated to growth.

  • Source
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Purpose ‐ The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework that integrates the endogenous growth and functions of financial markets and institutions theory in order to investigate how the financial market and the banking sector develop indicators that affect economic growth in these countries. Design/methodology/approach ‐ This paper is an empirical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth for 42 emerging markets, over 12 years, using endogenous growth model. Findings ‐ First, the results suggest that stock market development has a significant effect on economic growth, and this effect remains strong even after the influence of banking sector and other control variables using a growth model. Second, the research findings largely support the view that there is a stable, long-term equilibrium relationship between the evolution of the stock market and the evolution of the economy. Originality/value ‐ The evidence supports the view that the relation between stock market development and economic growth in emerging economies is bi-directional. The findings describe that the stock market and the banking sector in emerging economy are complementary rather than substitutes in providing financial services to the economy.
    Studies in Economics and Finance 01/2012; 29(3). DOI:10.1108/10867371211246830
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This special issue of the European Journal of Population focuses on possible economic consequences of low fertility in Europe. This introduction reviews the history of falling fertility in Europe and the literature that explores its causes, its potential implications, and possible policy responses. It also summarizes the evolution of thinking about the relationship between population growth and economic development, with attention to recent work on the mechanisms through which fertility decline can spur economic growth if the necessary supporting conditions are met. The introduction also identifies some of the challenges of population ageing that are associated with low fertility and suggests that there may be less reason for alarm than has been suggested by some observers. The articles that appear in this special issue are also summarized. Ce numéro spécial de la Revue européenne de Démographie est centré sur les possibles conséquences économiques des basses fécondités observées en Europe. Cette introduction rappelle l'historique de la chute de la fécondité en Europe et la littérature qui interroge ses causes, ses implications potentielles et les réponses politiques possibles. Elle synthétise également l'évolution de la pensée sur les relations entre la croissance de la population et le développement économique. Une attention particulière est portée aux travaux récents relatifs aux mécanismes par lesquels le déclin de la fécondité peut stimuler la croissance économique si les conditions nécessaires sont remplies. L'introduction identifie également les défis du vieillissement de la population associés à la basse fécondité et suggère qu'il y a peutêtre moins de raisons de s'alarmer que ne le laissent entendre certains observateurs. Elle reprend également les grandes lignes des articles qui figurent dans ce numéro.
    European Journal of Population 01/2010; 26(2):127-139. DOI:10.2307/40784182 · 1.75 Impact Factor