Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Center for International Development at Harvard University, CID Working Papers 01/1999;
Source: RePEc

ABSTRACT A central question for empirical economics, particularly economic growth, is which explanatory variables to include and exclude in the regressions. This paper aims to identify variables strongly correlated with provincial income growth in the Philippines by applying robustness procedures in determining which variables are strongly correlated with income growth. The extreme bound analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) were applied to fifteen determinants of income growth from a data set consisting of 74 Philippine provinces for the period 1985 to 2003 to test which among the explanatory variables are strongly correlated to growth. The tests show that among the fifteen variables, five variables stand out as being robust. The log of initial income, the ARMM indicator, the expenditure GINI and its square and the proportion of young dependents are all considered as strongly correlated to growth.

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    • "The large working-age population was productively employed, leading to rapid economic growth. Research supporting this line of argument includes Bloom and Canning (2008), Bloom et al. (2000), Lee and Mason (2006) and Mason (2001). There are several mechanisms through which a high share of working-age people leads to more rapid economic growth. "
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    ABSTRACT: This special issue of the European Journal of Population focuses on possible economic consequences of low fertility in Europe. This introduction reviews the history of falling fertility in Europe and the literature that explores its causes, its potential implications, and possible policy responses. It also summarizes the evolution of thinking about the relationship between population growth and economic development, with attention to recent work on the mechanisms through which fertility decline can spur economic growth if the necessary supporting conditions are met. The introduction also identifies some of the challenges of population ageing that are associated with low fertility and suggests that there may be less reason for alarm than has been suggested by some observers. The articles that appear in this special issue are also summarized. Ce numéro spécial de la Revue européenne de Démographie est centré sur les possibles conséquences économiques des basses fécondités observées en Europe. Cette introduction rappelle l’historique de la chute de la fécondité en Europe et la littérature qui interroge ses causes, ses implications potentielles et les réponses politiques possibles. Elle synthétise également l’évolution de la pensée sur les relations entre la croissance de la population et le développement économique. Une attention particulière est portée aux travaux récents relatifs aux mécanismes par lesquels le déclin de la fécondité peut stimuler la croissance économique si les conditions nécessaires sont remplies. L’introduction identifie également les défis du vieillissement de la population associés à la basse fécondité et suggère qu’il y a peut-être moins de raisons de s’alarmer que ne le laissent entendre certains observateurs. Elle reprend également les grandes lignes des articles qui figurent dans ce numéro. KeywordsLow fertility-Europe-Economic consequences Mots-clésBasse fécondité-Europe-Conséquences économiques
    European Journal of Population 05/2010; 26(2):127-139. DOI:10.1007/s10680-010-9209-7 · 1.75 Impact Factor
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    • "The effect of fertility decline in the second intermediate stage, through which virtually all developing countries have passed and will be passing in the early twenty first centuries, is a one-off 'demographic bonus' or 'window of opportunity' – a period of almost 50 years during which an initially high ratio of the working age to the dependent population gradually declines (Bloom and Canning, 2001, 2003b; Bloom, Canning, and Sevilla, 2003; Bloom and Williamson, 1998). This window of opportunity generates more workers to produce more total output, provided that they are productively employed; accumulates greater wealth, given that sa.vings occur and are productively invested; and makes available a larger amount of human capital, when appropriate investments are made in its formation (see for example, Birdsall and Sinding, 2001; Bongaarts, 2001; Kelley and Schmidt 2001; Williamson 2001; Lee, Mason and Miller 2001; Bloom and Canning, 2001). Therefore, the emergent view on the contribution of health to economic growth brings, along with various economic aspects, the demographic attributes in the analysis. "
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    ABSTRACT: The policies for better health, poverty reduction, and less inequality, throughout the world, require thorough understanding of both the processes and causal paths that underlie the intricate relationship between health and wealth (income). This is deemed difficult, contingent, and only partially understood. The adage 'health is wealth' is still, primarily, an intuitive proposition. A vast majority of researchers instead present theoretical and empirical arguments of the reverse proposition, i.e. 'wealth is health'. A recent strand of the literature, however, reflects changes in the perceptions: improvements of health and longevity are no longer viewed as a mere end- or by-product of economic development; but argued as one of the key determinants of, and therefore means to achieve, economic development and poverty reduction. Hence, better health does not have to wait for an improved economy; rather, measures to reduce the burden of disease, to give children healthy childhoods, to increase life expectancy etc. will in themselves contribute to creating richer economies. Drawing on the traditional and emerging perspectives on the health-income relationship, this literature review presents a non-exhaustive survey of existing methodological approaches and their results that are applied to track and measure how health influences economic outcomes. --
    Economics E-Journal 01/2010; 4(14):1-52. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1726742 · 0.64 Impact Factor
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    • "Recently several authors have incorporated age structure into their growth modeling and have applied age structure effects empirically to account for the growth of developing economies (Bloom and Canning, 2003a) specific cases such as Ireland (Bloom and Canning, 2003b), and the rise of East Asian economies (Bloom et al., 1999; Mason et al., 2008). Most of these recent studies have found 1 Our ability to estimate independent demographic effects stems from the fact that current age structure is itself determined by past fertility, making it predetermined with respect to current economic conditions (Feyrer, 2002). 2 We are not using " size " here in the same way as Alesina et al. (2003) or Jones (2003). "
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    ABSTRACT: Can divergent demographic trends account for differences in per capita output across countries? We address this question by offering evidence that the process of population ageing is positively and significantly related to cross-country economic performance. We define and estimate the effect of demographic change in two ways. First, a growing cohort of working age persons (15-64) as a share of the total population is found to have a large positive effect on GDP per capita . Second, an increase in the number of prime age persons (35-54) relative to the younger working age population (15-34) is found to have a positive but curvilinear effect with respect to per capita GDP. We find that changes in per capita GDP peak when the ratio of the prime-to-younger age population reaches an optimum of prime age workers for every younger aged worker. Beyond or below this optimal ratio, per capita output is lowered. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 International Association for Research in Income and Wealth Published.
    Review of Income and Wealth 09/2008; 54(3):350-372. DOI:10.1111/j.1475-4991.2008.00279.x · 0.81 Impact Factor
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