The Effect of Prices on Cigarette Use Among Youths in the Global Youth Tobacco Survey
ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: We estimate the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking in 38 countries of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey. METHODS: We use a 2-part model of cigarette demand. In the first part, we estimate the impact of prices on the decision to smoke. Conditional on smoking, we then estimate the effect of price on the number of cigarettes smoked. We employ 2-way fixed effects to address country-level time-invariant heterogeneity and control for an array of local-level variables to address local-level heterogeneity. RESULTS: The estimated total price elasticity is -1.5 for a sample that contains both high-income and low- and middle-income countries. Constraining the sample to only low- and middle-income countries, we find a total price elasticity of -2.2, suggesting that smoking among youths in low-income countries is more responsive to cigarette price changes. CONCLUSION: Cigarette price increases are highly effective in reducing smoking prevalence and consumption among youths globally, and particularly among youths in low- and middle-income countries.
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ABSTRACT: In China, there are more than 300 million male smokers. Tobacco taxation reduces smoking-related premature deaths and increases government revenues, but has been criticised for disproportionately affecting poorer people. We assess the distributional consequences (across different wealth quintiles) of a specific excise tax on cigarettes in China in terms of both financial and health outcomes. We use extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to estimate, across income quintiles, the health benefits (years of life gained), the additional tax revenues raised, the net financial consequences for households, and the financial risk protection provided to households, that would be caused by a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax fully passed onto tobacco consumers. For our modelling analysis, we used plausible values for key parameters, including an average price elasticity of demand for tobacco of -0·38, which is assumed to vary from -0·64 in the poorest quintile to -0·12 in the richest, and we considered only the male population, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of smokers in China. Our modelling analysis showed that a 50% increase in tobacco price through excise tax would lead to 231 million years of life gained (95% uncertainty range 194-268 million) over 50 years (a third of which would be gained in the lowest income quintile), a gain of US$703 billion ($616-781 billion) of additional tax revenues from the excise tax (14% of which would come from the lowest income quintile, compared with 24% from the highest income quintile). The excise tax would increase overall household expenditures on tobacco by $376 billion ($232-505 billion), but decrease these expenditures by $21 billion (-$83 to $5 billion) in the lowest income quintile, and would reduce expenditures on tobacco-related disease by $24·0 billion ($17·3-26·3 billion, 28% of which would benefit the lowest income quintile). Finally, it would provide financial risk protection worth $1·8 billion ($1·2-2·3 billion), mainly concentrated (74%) in the lowest income quintile. Increased tobacco taxation can be a pro-poor policy instrument that brings substantial health and financial benefits to households in China. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Dalla Lana School of Public Health. Copyright © 2015 Verguet et al. Open access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.The Lancet Global Health 03/2015; 3(4). DOI:10.1016/S2214-109X(15)70095-1
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ABSTRACT: We examined the impact of tobacco prices or taxes on tobacco use in Latin America and Caribbean countries. We searched MEDLINE, EconLit, LILACS, unpublished literature, 6 specialty journals, and review references. We calculated pooled price elasticities using random-effects models. The 32 studies we examined found that cigarette prices have a negative and statistically significant effect on cigarette consumption. A change in price is associated with a less than proportional change in the quantity of cigarettes demanded. In most Latin American countries, own-price elasticity for cigarettes is likely below -0.5 (pooled elasticities, short-run: -0.31; 95% confidence interval = -0.39, -0.24; long-run: -0.43; 95% CI = -0.51, -0.35). Tax increases effectively reduce cigarette use. Lack of studies using household- or individual-level data limits research's policy relevance. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print January 20, 2015: e1-e11. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2014.302396).American Journal of Public Health 01/2015; 105(3):e1-e11. DOI:10.2105/AJPH.2014.302396 · 4.23 Impact Factor
Article: International Tobacco Control[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Tobacco use is one of the leading causes of preventable death globally with the burden falling predominantly on middle- and low-income countries. The World Health Organisation (WHO) introduced the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) to reduce the health and economic burden posed by tobacco. In this article, we assess the evidence behind three main measures included in the FCTC: (1) raising the price of tobacco, (2) introducing smoke-free policies and (3) standardised tobacco packaging. We discuss the evidence base for their introduction as well as evidence of the impact of implementation both in industrialised and developing countries, where data are available. A key challenge to the introduction of policies is opposition from the tobacco industry who has a history of challenging such developments. Another key challenge is the introduction of innovative policies which have not been introduced elsewhere, and there is consequentially not yet an evidence base in place. Finally, the advent of alternative nicotine delivery devices such as electronic cigarettes, and the role of the tobacco industry in their production, is posing new challenges for tobacco control.03/2015; 2(1):1-7. DOI:10.1007/s40429-015-0047-x