The Effect of Prices on Cigarette Use Among Youths in the Global Youth Tobacco Survey.
ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: We estimate the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking in 38 countries of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey. METHODS: We use a 2-part model of cigarette demand. In the first part, we estimate the impact of prices on the decision to smoke. Conditional on smoking, we then estimate the effect of price on the number of cigarettes smoked. We employ 2-way fixed effects to address country-level time-invariant heterogeneity and control for an array of local-level variables to address local-level heterogeneity. RESULTS: The estimated total price elasticity is -1.5 for a sample that contains both high-income and low- and middle-income countries. Constraining the sample to only low- and middle-income countries, we find a total price elasticity of -2.2, suggesting that smoking among youths in low-income countries is more responsive to cigarette price changes. CONCLUSION: Cigarette price increases are highly effective in reducing smoking prevalence and consumption among youths globally, and particularly among youths in low- and middle-income countries.
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ABSTRACT: To assess effects of price, income, and health publicity on cigarette smoking by age, sex, and socioeconomic group. Econometric multiple regression analysis of data on cigarette smoking from the British general household survey. Random sample of adult population in Britain interviewed for biennial general household surveys 1972-90. Changes in cigarette consumption and prevalence of smoking. Price elasticities of demand for cigarettes (percentage change in cigarette consumption for a 1% change in price) were significant at -0.5 (95% confidence interval -0.8 to -0.1) for men and -0.6 (-0.9 to -0.3) for women, were highest in socioeconomic group V (-1.0 for men and -0.9 for women), and lowest (not significantly different from zero) in socioeconomic groups I and II. The gradient in price elasticities by socioeconomic group was significant for men (F = 5.6, P = 0.02) and for women (F = 6.1, P = 0.02). Price was a significant factor in cigarette consumption by age for women in every age group and for men aged 25-34. Cigarette consumption by young men aged 16-34 increased with income. There was a significant decrease in smoking over time by women in socioeconomic groups I and II and by men in all age and social groups except socioeconomic group V attributable to health publicity. Price significantly affected smoking prevalence in socioeconomic group V (-0.6 for men and -0.5 for women) and for all women (-0.2). Men and women in lower socioeconomic groups are more responsive than are those in higher socioeconomic groups to changes in the price of cigarettes and less to health publicity. Women of all ages, including teenagers, appear to have been less responsive to health publicity than have men but more responsive to price. Response to health publicity decreased linearly with age. Real price increases in cigarettes could narrow differences between socioeconomic groups in smoking and the related inequalities in health, but specific measures would be necessary to ameliorate effects on the most deprived families that may include members who continue to smoke. The use of a policy to steadily increase cigarette tax is likely to help achieve the government's targets for smoking and smoking related diseases.BMJ 11/1994; 309(6959):923-7. · 14.09 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: We estimate a generalized linear model to examine adult and teenage cigarette demand. Out analysis focuses on the extent to which excise taxes and regulations restricting smoking in public places affect cigarette consumption. The adult results indicate that the price elasticity of demand is unstable over time, ranging from 0.06 in 1970 to -0.23 in 1985. These estimates are lower than most found in previous studies. The teenage price elasticity does not differ statistically from the estimates for adults. Additionally, regulations restricting smoking in public places have a significant effect on both adult and teenage cigarette demand.Journal of Health Economics 05/1991; 10(1):43-64. · 1.60 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To determine if there are differences in young people's responsiveness to price and tobacco control policies for population subgroups and to examine whether or not these differences, if they exist, can explain sex and racial differences in trends in the prevalence of smoking in young people in the United States. Use cross-sectional and intertemporal variation in local and state tobacco control policies and prices to calculate demand responses to these policies using regression analysis techniques. A nationally representative sample of American eighth grade (ages 13-14 years), 10th grade (15-16 years) and 12th grade (17-18 years) students obtained from the 1992-1994 Monitoring the Future surveys. Thirty-day smoking prevalence. Young men are much more responsive to changes in the price of cigarettes than young women. The prevalence elasticity for young men is almost twice as large as that for young women. Smoking rates of young black men are significantly more responsive to changes in price than young white men. Significant differences in responsiveness to particular tobacco control policies also exist. These differences, however, explain relatively little of the differences in smoking prevalence among young population subgroups. Policymakers need to keep in mind that there is not a "one-size fits all" strategy for discouraging smoking among young people.Tobacco Control 02/1999; 8(4):373-7. · 4.11 Impact Factor