Expert Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I
ABSTRACT PURPOSE: To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trial I (MUTT I) using expert opinion as a prior belief. METHODS: MUTT I was a randomized clinical trial comparing topical natamycin or voriconazole for treating filamentous fungal keratitis. A questionnaire elicited expert opinion on the best treatment of fungal keratitis before MUTT I results were available. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the questionnaire data as a prior belief and the MUTT I primary outcome (3-month visual acuity) by frequentist analysis as a likelihood. RESULTS: Corneal experts had a 41.1% prior belief that natamycin improved 3-month visual acuity compared to voriconazole. The Bayesian analysis found a 98.4% belief for natamycin treatment compared to voriconazole treatment for filamentous cases as a group (mean improvement 1.1 Snellen lines, 95% credible interval 0.1-2.1). The Bayesian analysis estimated a smaller treatment effect than the MUTT I frequentist analysis result of 1.8-line improvement with natamycin versus voriconazole (95% confidence interval 0.5-3.0, P=0.006). For Fusarium cases, the posterior demonstrated a 99.7% belief for natamycin treatment, while non-Fusarium cases had a 57.3% belief. CONCLUSIONS: The Bayesian analysis suggests that natamycin is superior to voriconazole when filamentous cases are analyzed as a group. Subgroup analysis of Fusarium cases found improvement with natamycin compared to voriconazole, while there was almost no difference between treatments for non-Fusarium cases. These results were consistent with, though smaller in effect size than, the MUTT I primary outcome by frequentist analysis. The accordance between analyses further validates the trial results.
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ABSTRACT: To conduct a therapeutic exploratory clinical trial comparing clinical outcomes of treatment with topical natamycin vs topical voriconazole for fungal keratitis. The multicenter, double-masked, clinical trial included 120 patients with fungal keratitis at Aravind Eye Hospital in India who were randomized to receive either topical natamycin or topical voriconazole and either had repeated scraping of the epithelium or not. The primary outcome was best spectacle-corrected visual acuity (BSCVA) at 3 months. Other outcomes included scar size, perforations, and a subanalysis of BSCVA at 3 months in patients with an enrollment visual acuity of 20/40 to 20/400. Compared with those who received natamycin, voriconazole-treated patients had an approximately 1-line improvement in BSCVA at 3 months after adjusting for scraping in a multivariate regression model but the difference was not statistically significant (P = .29). Scar size at 3 months was slightly greater with voriconazole after adjusting for scraping (P = .48). Corneal perforations in the voriconazole group (10 of 60 patients) were not significantly different than in the natamycin-treated group (9 of 60 patients) (P >.99). Scraping was associated with worse BSCVA at 3 months after adjusting for drug (P = .06). Patients with baseline BSCVA of 20/40 to 20/400 showed a trend toward a 2-line improvement in visual acuity with voriconazole (P = .07). Overall, there were no significant differences in visual acuity, scar size, and perforations between voriconazole- and natamycin-treated patients. There was a trend toward scraping being associated with worse outcomes. Application to Clinical Practice The benefit seen with voriconazole in the subgroup of patients with baseline visual acuity of 20/40 to 20/400 needs to be validated in a confirmatory clinical trial. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00557362.Archives of ophthalmology 06/2010; 128(6):672-8. DOI:10.1001/archophthalmol.2010.102 · 4.49 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Purpose: To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. Methods: The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Results: Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Conclusion: Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.Ophthalmic epidemiology 12/2012; 19(6):407-13. DOI:10.3109/09286586.2012.735332 · 1.27 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Collecting and documenting subjective prior beliefs from knowledgeable clinicians about the potential results of a clinical trial has many advantages. Two large trials of prophylactic treatments in an HIV-positive population are used as examples. The trials recruited patients of primary care physicians and compared treatments which were in use in clinical practice. Opinions about these trials were elicited from 58 practising HIV clinicians. It is shown how the documented opinions can be used to augment the monitoring process; the prior opinions are updated with interim data using approximate Bayesian methods to give posterior opinions incorporating interim results. These posterior opinions can be used by the monitoring board to anticipate the clinicians' reaction to the results. Eliciting prior beliefs is also ethically important for documenting the nature of the uncertainty or equipoise. Important information is provided for the informed consent process and Institutional Review Board (IRB).Statistics in Medicine 01/2001; 20(4):581-600. DOI:10.1002/sim.694 · 2.04 Impact Factor