Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

Social and Cardiovascular Epidemiology Research Group, School of Medicine, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain.
BMJ (online) (Impact Factor: 16.38). 04/2013; 346:f1515. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.f1515
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval.
Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.
Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010.
Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively.
Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics.
Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed.
In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Adaptation in response to selection on polygenic phenotypes may occur via subtle allele frequencies shifts at many loci. Current population genomic techniques are not well posed to identify such signals. In the past decade, detailed knowledge about the specific loci underlying polygenic traits has begun to emerge from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Here we combine this knowledge from GWAS with robust population genetic modeling to identify traits that may have been influenced by local adaptation. We exploit the fact that GWAS provide an estimate of the additive effect size of many loci to estimate the mean additive genetic value for a given phenotype across many populations as simple weighted sums of allele frequencies. We use a general model of neutral genetic value drift for an arbitrary number of populations with an arbitrary relatedness structure. Based on this model, we develop methods for detecting unusually strong correlations between genetic values and specific environmental variables, as well as a generalization of [Formula: see text] comparisons to test for over-dispersion of genetic values among populations. Finally we lay out a framework to identify the individual populations or groups of populations that contribute to the signal of overdispersion. These tests have considerably greater power than their single locus equivalents due to the fact that they look for positive covariance between like effect alleles, and also significantly outperform methods that do not account for population structure. We apply our tests to the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP) dataset using GWAS data for height, skin pigmentation, type 2 diabetes, body mass index, and two inflammatory bowel disease datasets. This analysis uncovers a number of putative signals of local adaptation, and we discuss the biological interpretation and caveats of these results.
    PLoS Genetics 08/2014; 10(8):e1004412. · 8.52 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Clinical inertia is defined as the failure to establish appropriate targets and escalate treatment to achieve treatment goals. It accounts for a significant proportion of failure to achieve targets in the management of diabetes and contributes to up to 200,000 adverse diabetes- related outcomes per year. Despite a growing awareness of the phenomenon, and newer, better-tolerated agents for the control of diabetes, there has been little improvement over the last decade in the prevalence of clinical inertia. Although common-place in clinical practice, clinical inertia does not appear to affect clinical trials. There are lessons that may be translated from these randomised controlled trials to clinical practice, which that may improve the care for those with diabetes. Key amongst these interventions are good education, clear treatment strategy and more time for interaction between physician and patients, all of which appears to reduce clinical inertia as evidenced by the "placebo effect" of clinical trials. We plan to review here, the lessons that can be learnt from clinical trials and how these may translate to better care for people with diabetes.
    Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders. 08/2014;
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: 40(4) DEBATE ( RESUMEN Embelleciendo la vida se puede alcanzar una tercera edad enriquecedora, edificante y larga. El "adaptismo" es una corriente explicativa de la nutrición y alimentación humana que pretende matizar la vergüenza de la existencia de malnutrición en el siglo xxi con pinceladas lingüísticas tranquilizantes para sus generadores. Las actuales generaciones son el resultado de alternos períodos de hambrunas y plétora, los cuales seleccionaron a los sobrevivientes. Según la hipótesis de la "Programación Fetal" o del "Fenotipo Ahorrador" ABSTRACT Making life beautiful is a way of reaching a long, enriching and fruitful older age. "Adaptism" is an explanatory current of human nutrition and feeding that intends to attenuate the shameful existence of malnutrition in the 21st century with reassuring linguistic phrases for its generators. Today's generations are the result of alternative periods of famine and plethora which selected the survivors. According to the "Fetal Programming "or "Saving Phenotype" hypothesis, diseases at adulthood is programmed by hormones and neurotransmitters during the critical periods of fetal development. This hypothesis becomes the center of debates on the alarming epidemiological behavior of diabetes, obesity and cancer at present. Extension of life expectancy, as a result of a very successful combination of well-preserved system, good capacity to face stress, adequate life style and genetic load, is accompanied by the prevention of non-communicable diseases. The actions to attain this goal should begin before the intrauterine life of the fetus. Aging as such is not an unsolved issue; the problem lies in marginalization, disease and poverty that do not allow the elderly to have a decent life in many regions of the world.
    Revista Cubana de Salud Publica ISSN 0864-3466. 07/2014; 40(4):361-378.


Available from
Sep 9, 2014
Available from