A Cervical Abnormality Risk Prediction Model: Can We Use Clinical Information to Predict Which Patients With ASCUS/LSIL Pap Tests Will Develop CIN 2/3 or AIS?
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections and abnormal Pap test results are common, and most do not progress to cervical cancer. Because it is difficult to predict which mild Pap abnormalities will develop into precancerous lesions, many women undergo painful and costly evaluations and even unnecessary treatment. The objective of this study was to develop a risk prediction model based on clinical and demographic information to identify women most likely to develop significant precancerous lesions (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2/3 [CIN 2/3] or adenocarcinoma in situ [AIS]) among women with mild Pap abnormalities (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance/low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Abnormal Pap Smear Registry includes women who received treatment at the Brigham and Women's Hospital/Dana Farber Cancer Institute Pap Smear Evaluation Center beginning in 2006. It includes 1,072 women with mild cervical dysplasia (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion) on their referral Pap test. We derived a clinical prediction model to predict the probability of developing CIN 2/3 or AIS using multivariate logistic regression with a split-sample approach. RESULTS: By the end of the follow-up, 93 of the 1,072 women developed CIN 2/3 or AIS (8.7%). There were several differences between women who developed CIN 2/3 or AIS and women who did not. However, once we put these into the regression model, the only variable that was significantly associated with CIN 2/3 or AIS was having a history of an abnormal Pap or biopsy result (odds ratio = 2.44; 95% CI =1.03-5.76). The resulting prediction model had poor discriminative ability and was poorly calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Despite accounting for known risk factors, we were unable to predict individual patients' probability for progression on the basis of available data.
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ABSTRACT: Cervical cancer (CxCa) is the second most common cancer among women globally. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is thought to be a necessary, but not sufficient, causal factor in CxCa development. Why some women are able to clear HPV infection with no adverse effects, whereas others develop cancer, remains unclear. HHV-6 has demonstrated transformative abilities and has been shown to be present in the genital tract. However, based on the current evidence, we cannot conclude that HHV-6 is a co-factor in HPV-associated carcinogenesis. Nonetheless, future research is warranted because of several crucial gaps in the literature.Cancer letters 04/2013; DOI:10.1016/j.canlet.2013.04.023 · 5.62 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Abstract Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer in the world and the leading cause of death. Frequency and mortality are significantly reduced thanks to cytological Papanicolau test (PAP). Regular PAP test can reduce approximately 80% of cases of this cancer. Aim of the study: to examine frequency of cervical cancer and changes of cervix, the age of risk for the changes and effect of frequency of PAP test. Materials and methods: 3383 PAP (cytological) findings have been retrospectively ana lysed in three Health Centres of Tuzla Canton: Tuzla, Srebrenik and Sapna. During 2010 and 2011 protocols of Health Centers have been analyzed. Results: Analysis of 3383 smears detected the following: abnormal PAP tests in 20.8% (705) and without abnormalities in 79.1% (2678). Normal findings in 9.1% (311), inflammatory changes in 69.6% (2357), ASCUS in 12.9% (438), ASC-H in 0.3% (11), LSIL in 5.4% (183), HSIL in 1.4% (49) and Squamous cell carcinoma in 0.7% (24). Cervical cancer has mostly been found in women from Srebrenik 1.1% (15) and least in women from Tuzla 0.3%(4).The highest number of abnormal findings (ASCUS, ASC-H , LSIL, H SIL and Cc) was also found in women from Srebrenik 39.5% (279). The average age of the examinees with the cancer was 41.7. In 62.5% (15) of women PAP test was performed for the first time and they were diagnosed with cervical cancer. Cervical cancer hasn’t been found in women who had PAP test once a year or more. Conclusion: Women with the abnormal findings in their first PAP test and should be persuaded to accept the treatment in order to prevent development of cervical cancer. Key words: cervical cancer, PAP test, regular examinationMateria Socio Medica 12/2013; 25(4):259-261. DOI:10.5455/msm.2013.25.259-261