Microsimulation of Financial Impact of Demand Surge on Hospitals: The H1N1 Influenza Pandemic of Fall 2009
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: Microsimulation was used to assess the financial impact on hospitals of a surge in influenza admissions in advance of the H1N1 pandemic in the fall of 2009. The goal was to estimate net income and losses (nationally, and by hospital type) of a response of filling unused hospital bed capacity proportionately and postponing elective admissions (a "passive" supply response). METHODS: Epidemiologic assumptions were combined with assumptions from other literature (e.g., staff absenteeism, profitability by payer class), Census data on age groups by region, and baseline hospital utilization data. Hospital discharge records were available from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). Hospital bed capacity and staffing were measured with the American Hospital Association's (AHA) Annual Survey. RESULTS: Nationwide, in a scenario of relatively severe epidemiologic assumptions, we estimated aggregate net income of $119 million for about 1 million additional influenza-related admissions, and a net loss of $37 million for 52,000 postponed elective admissions. IMPLICATIONS: Aggregate and distributional results did not suggest that a policy of promising additional financial compensation to hospitals in anticipation of the surge in flu cases was necessary. The analysis identified needs for better information of several types to improve simulations of hospital behavior and impacts during demand surges.
Annals of Emergency Medicine 11/2014; 64(5):458-60. DOI:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2014.09.014 · 4.33 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Introduction:Successful management of a disaster or pandemic requires implementation of pre-existing plans to minimize loss of life and maintain control. Managing the expected surges in intensive care capacity requires strategic planning from a systems perspective, and includes focused intensive care abilities and requirements as well as all individuals and organizations involved in hospital and regional planning. The suggestions in this chapter are important for all of those involved in a large-scale disaster or pandemic including front line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. Specifically, this paper focuses on surge logistics, those elements that provide the capability to deliver mass critical care. Methodology:The Surge Capacity topic panel developed 23 key questions focused on the following domains: systems issues; equipment, supplies and pharmaceuticals; staffing; and informatics. Literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. The results were reviewed for relevance to the topic and the articles screened by two topic editors for placement within one of the surge domains noted previously. Most reports were small scale, observational or used flawed modeling and hence the level of evidence on which to base recommendations was poor therefore not permitting the development of evidence based recommendations. The Surge Capacity panel subsequently followed the American College of Chest Physician's (ACCP) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop expert opinion suggestions utilizing a modified Delphi process. Results:This paper presents 22 suggestions pertaining to surge capability mass critical care including: requirements for equipment, supplies and pharmaceuticals, staff preparation and organization, methods of mitigating overwhelming patient loads, the role of deployable critical care services and use of transportation assets to support the surge response. Conclusions:Critical care response to a disaster relies careful planning for staff and resource augmentation and involves many agencies. Maximizing use of regional resources including staff, equipment and supplies extends critical care capabilities. Regional coalitions should be established to facilitate agreements, outline operational plans, and coordinate hospital efforts to achieve pre-determined goals. Specialized physician oversight is necessary and if not available on site it may be provided through remote consultation. Triage by experienced providers, reverse triage, and service de-escalation may be used to minimize ICU resource consumption. During temporary loss of infrastructure or overwhelming of hospital resources, deployable critical care services should be considered.Chest 08/2014; 146(4). DOI:10.1378/chest.14-0734 · 7.13 Impact Factor