Estimating Strain-Specific and Overall Efficacy of Polyvalent Vaccines Against Recurrent Pathogens From a Cross-Sectional Study.
ABSTRACT Summary Evaluating vaccine efficacy for protection against colonization with bacterial pathogens is an area of growing interest. Colonization of the nasopharynx is an asymptomatic carrier state responsible for person-to-person transmission. It differs from most clinical outcomes in that it is common, recurrent, and observed only in its prevalent state. To estimate rates of acquisition and clearance of colonization requires repeated active sampling of the same individuals over time, an expensive and invasive undertaking. Motivated by feasibility constraints in efficacy trials with colonization endpoints, investigators have been estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional studies without principled methods. We present two examples of vaccine studies estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional data on nasopharyngeal colonization by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus). This study presents a framework for defining and estimating strain-specific and overall vaccine efficacy for susceptibility to acquisition of colonization () when there is a large number of strains with mutual interactions and recurrent dynamics of colonization. We develop estimators based on one observation of the current status per study subject, evaluate their robustness, and re-analyze the two vaccine trials. Methodologically, the proposed estimators are closely related to case-control studies with prevalent cases, with appropriate consideration of the at-risk time in choosing the controls.
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ABSTRACT: 10-valent conjugate pneumococcal vaccine/PCV10 was introduced in the Brazilian National Immunization Program along the year of 2010. We assessed the direct effectiveness of PCV10 vaccination in preventing nasopharyngeal/NP pneumococcal carriage in infants.PLoS ONE 06/2014; 9(6):e98128. · 3.53 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Evaluating vaccine efficacy for protection against colonisation (VEcol) with bacterial pathogens is an area of growing interest. In this article, we consider estimation of VEcol for colonisation with Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus). Colonisation is a common, recurrent and multi-type endpoint that requires both careful definition of the vaccine efficacy parameter and the corresponding method of estimation. We review recent developments in the area and provide practical guidelines for choosing the estimand and the estimation method in trials with a colonisation endpoint. We concentrate on methods that are based on a cross-sectional study design, in which only one nasopharyngeal sample is obtained per study subject.Vaccine 09/2013; · 3.49 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Background Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. Methods We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (facq, 1/fdur). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. Results The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VEˆacq.dur, (1 − POR ) × 100) best estimates the true VE (VE acq.dur, (1 − f acq × f dur) × 100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VEˆacq.dur first approximates VE acq.dur: if the mean duration of carriage is 1–1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2–3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VEˆacq.dur approximates VEacq.dur. Conclusion The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.Epidemics 08/2014; · 2.38 Impact Factor