Estimating Strain-Specific and Overall Efficacy of Polyvalent Vaccines Against Recurrent Pathogens From a Cross-Sectional Study

Department of Vaccination and Immune Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Washington 98109, U.S.A. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Washington 98195, U.S.A.
Biometrics (Impact Factor: 1.57). 02/2013; 69(1). DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01826.x
Source: PubMed


Summary Evaluating vaccine efficacy for protection against colonization with bacterial pathogens is an area of growing interest. Colonization of the nasopharynx is an asymptomatic carrier state responsible for person-to-person transmission. It differs from most clinical outcomes in that it is common, recurrent, and observed only in its prevalent state. To estimate rates of acquisition and clearance of colonization requires repeated active sampling of the same individuals over time, an expensive and invasive undertaking. Motivated by feasibility constraints in efficacy trials with colonization endpoints, investigators have been estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional studies without principled methods. We present two examples of vaccine studies estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional data on nasopharyngeal colonization by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus). This study presents a framework for defining and estimating strain-specific and overall vaccine efficacy for susceptibility to acquisition of colonization () when there is a large number of strains with mutual interactions and recurrent dynamics of colonization. We develop estimators based on one observation of the current status per study subject, evaluate their robustness, and re-analyze the two vaccine trials. Methodologically, the proposed estimators are closely related to case-control studies with prevalent cases, with appropriate consideration of the at-risk time in choosing the controls.

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    • "The proposed method of estimation of vaccine efficacy against colonisation is based on the ability to estimate hazard ratios from cross-sectional data under the steady-state assumption [10]. In a head-to-head trial, the relevant hazard ratio is that for the overall acquisition of the target serotypes (investigational vs. active control ). "
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    ABSTRACT: Evaluation of vaccine efficacy for protection against colonisation (VEcol) with Streptococcus pneumoniae and other bacterial pathogens is often based on a cross-sectional study design, in which only one nasopharyngeal sample is obtained per study subject. Here we investigate the feasibility of this study design by investigating a number of practical design problems. Specific questions are related to the timing of colonisation measurement with respect to the time of vaccination, the adjustment for the within-host replacement of vaccine-type colonisation by the non-vaccine type pneumococci, and the impact of multiple serotype colonisation on VEcol estimation. We also discuss the issue of choosing the control vaccine, including comparison of two active pneumococcal vaccines, as well as the sample size and the statistical power of colonisation endpoint trials. In addition, the statistical design with the specific aim to include information about VEcol in the licensure process of new pneumococcal vaccine products is discussed.
    Vaccine 07/2013; 32(1). DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.06.105 · 3.62 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Evaluating vaccine efficacy for protection against colonisation (VEcol) with bacterial pathogens is an area of growing interest. In this article, we consider estimation of VEcol for colonisation with Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus). Colonisation is a common, recurrent and multi-type endpoint that requires both careful definition of the vaccine efficacy parameter and the corresponding method of estimation. We review recent developments in the area and provide practical guidelines for choosing the estimand and the estimation method in trials with a colonisation endpoint. We concentrate on methods that are based on a cross-sectional study design, in which only one nasopharyngeal sample is obtained per study subject.
    Vaccine 09/2013; 32(1). DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.08.061 · 3.62 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Background 10-valent conjugate pneumococcal vaccine/PCV10 was introduced in the Brazilian National Immunization Program along the year of 2010. We assessed the direct effectiveness of PCV10 vaccination in preventing nasopharyngeal/NP pneumococcal carriage in infants. Methods A cross-sectional population-based household survey was conducted in Goiania Brazil, from December/2010-February/2011 targeting children aged 7–11 m and 15–18 m. Participants were selected using a systematic sampling. NP swabs, demographic data, and vaccination status were collected from 1,287 children during home visits. Main outcome and exposure of interest were PCV10 vaccine-type carriage and dosing schedules (3p+0, 2p+0, and one catch-up dose), respectively. Pneumococcal carriage was defined by a positive culture and serotyping was performed by Quellung reaction. Rate ratio/RR was calculated as the ratio between the prevalence of vaccine-types carriage in children exposed to different schedules and unvaccinated for PCV10. Adjusted RR was estimated using Poisson regression. PCV10 effectiveness/VE on vaccine-type carriage was calculated as 1-RR*100. Results The prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 41.0% (95%CI: 38.4–43.7). Serotypes covered by PCV10 and PCV13 were 35.2% and 53.0%, respectively. Vaccine serotypes 6B (11.6%), 23F (7.8%), 14 (6.8%), and 19F (6.6%) were the most frequently observed. After adjusted for confounders, children who had received 2p+0 or 3p+0 dosing schedule presented a significant reduction in pneumococcal vaccine-type carriage, with PCV10 VE equal to 35.9% (95%CI: 4.2–57.1; p = 0.030) and 44.0% (95%CI: 14.–63.5; p = 0.008), respectively, when compared with unvaccinated children. For children who received one catch-up dose, no significant VE was detected (p = 0.905). Conclusion PCV10 was associated with high protection against vaccine-type carriage with 2p+0 and 3p+0 doses for children vaccinated before the second semester of life. The continuous evaluation of carriage serotypes distribution is likely to be useful for evaluating the long-term effectiveness and impact of pneumococcal vaccination on serotypes reduction.
    PLoS ONE 06/2014; 9(6):e98128. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0098128 · 3.23 Impact Factor
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