Article

Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model

Department of HIV/AIDS, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
The Lancet (Impact Factor: 45.22). 12/2008; 373(9657):48-57. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61697-9
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Roughly 3 million people worldwide were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the end of 2007, but an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of treatment and a further 2.7 million became infected with HIV in 2007. Prevention efforts might reduce HIV incidence but are unlikely to eliminate this disease. We investigated a theoretical strategy of universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate treatment with ART, and examined the conditions under which the HIV epidemic could be driven towards elimination.
We used mathematical models to explore the effect on the case reproduction number (stochastic model) and long-term dynamics of the HIV epidemic (deterministic transmission model) of testing all people in our test-case community (aged 15 years and older) for HIV every year and starting people on ART immediately after they are diagnosed HIV positive. We used data from South Africa as the test case for a generalised epidemic, and assumed that all HIV transmission was heterosexual.
The studied strategy could greatly accelerate the transition from the present endemic phase, in which most adults living with HIV are not receiving ART, to an elimination phase, in which most are on ART, within 5 years. It could reduce HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people per year by 2016, or within 10 years of full implementation of the strategy, and reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years. We estimate that in 2032, the yearly cost of the present strategy and the theoretical strategy would both be US$1.7 billion; however, after this time, the cost of the present strategy would continue to increase whereas that of the theoretical strategy would decrease.
Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART, combined with present prevention approaches, could have a major effect on severe generalised HIV/AIDS epidemics. This approach merits further mathematical modelling, research, and broad consultation.

Download full-text

Full-text

Available from: Reuben Granich, Sep 05, 2014
3 Followers
 · 
157 Views
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The preventative effects of antiretroviral therapy for people with HIV have been debated since they were first raised. Models commenced studying the preventive effects of treatment in the 1990s, prior to initial public reports. However, the outcomes of the preventive effects of antiretroviral use were not consistent. Some outcomes of dynamic models were based on unfeasible assumptions, such as no consideration of drug resistance, behavior disinhibition, or economic inputs in poor countries, and unrealistic input variables, for example, overstated initiation time, adherence, coverage, and efficacy of treatment. This paper reviewed dynamic mathematical models to ascertain the complex effects of ART on HIV transmission. This review discusses more conservative inputs and outcomes relative to antiretroviral use in HIV infections in dynamic mathematical models. ART alone cannot eliminate HIV transmission.
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Adherence to treatment instructions with antiretroviral therapy (ART) is very crucial for successful treatment outcome. However, sticking to treatment instructions pose-great challenges to HIV/AIDS patients. This cross-sectional study was on HIV infected adults attending ART clinic in Nigeria to explore nonadherence factors in relation to their socioeconomic characteristics. Validated structured questionnaire was administered to 221 participants. Results showed a high nonadherence rate of 85.1%. The commonest occurring factors of non-adherence were forgetfulness (53.8%), busy schedule (38.8%), side effects of drugs (31.9%), and stigma (31.9%). Males were more likely to complain from busy schedule, feeling healthy, fear of partner disclosure, long waiting period, and long term regimen. Patients with no formal education were more likely to attribute non-adherence to poor communication, side effects of drugs, and stigma. Employed patients seemed to miss their drugs more than the unemployed and artisans. The high non-adherence rate has serious implications for the control of HIV in infected individuals and management of HIV in general. Nurses should intensify efforts on patient education and counseling.
    11/2013; 2013:843794. DOI:10.1155/2013/843794
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Little is known about the association of intimate partner violence (IPV) with specific HIV treatment outcomes, especially among criminal justice (CJ) populations who are disproportionately affected by IPV, HIV, mental and substance use disorders (SUDs) and are at high risk of poor post-release continuity of care. Mixed methods were used to describe the prevalence, severity, and correlates of lifetime IPV exposure among HIV-infected jail detainees enrolled in a novel jail-release demonstration project in Connecticut. Additionally, the effect of IPV on HIV treatment outcomes and longitudinal healthcare utilization was examined. Structured baseline surveys defined 49% of 84 participants as having significant IPV-exposure, which was associated with female gender, longer duration since HIV diagnosis, suicidal ideation, having higher alcohol use severity, having experienced other forms of childhood and adulthood abuse, and homo/bisexual orientation. IPV was not directly correlated with HIV healthcare utilization or treatment outcomes. In-depth qualitative interviews with 20 surveyed participants, however, confirmed that IPV was associated with disengagement from HIV care especially in the context of overlapping vulnerabilities, including transitioning from CJ to community settings, having untreated mental disorders, and actively using drugs or alcohol at the time of incarceration. Post-release interventions for HIV-infected CJ populations should minimally integrate HIV secondary prevention with violence reduction and treatment for SUDs.
    International Journal of Prisoner Health 09/2013; 9(3):124-141. DOI:10.1108/IJPH-03-2013-0011