Article

Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

Meteorology Department, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Piatkowska 94, 60649, Poznan, Poland, .
International Journal of Biometeorology (Impact Factor: 2.59). 01/2013; 57:31-44. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0531-0
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020-2040 and 2040-2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040-2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T ( low )) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T ( low ) = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8-6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.

0 Bookmarks
 · 
165 Views
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Based on phenological and economic output models established and meteorological data from 1972 to 2013, changes in the phenology, frost risk, and economic output of the Longjing-43 tea tree in the Yuezhou Longjing tea production area of China were evaluated. As the local climate has changed, the beginning dates of tea bud and leaf plucking of this cultivar in all five counties studied has advanced significantly by -1.28 to -0.88 days/decade, with no significant change in the risk of frost. The main tea-producing stages in the tea production cycle include the plucking periods for superfine, grade 1, and grade 2 buds and leaves. Among the five bud and leaf grades, the economic output of the plucking periods for superfine and grade 1 decreased significantly, that for grade 2 showed no significant change, and those for grades 3 and 4 increased significantly. The economic output of large-area tea plantations employing an average of 45 workers per hectare and producing superfine to grade 2 buds and leaves were significantly reduced by 6,745-8,829 yuan/decade/ha, depending on the county. Those tea farmers who planted tea trees on their own small land holdings and produced superfine to grade 4 tea buds and leaves themselves experienced no significant decline in economic output.
    International Journal of Biometeorology 07/2014; · 2.59 Impact Factor

Full-text (2 Sources)

View
113 Downloads
Available from
Jun 5, 2014