Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

Meteorology Department, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Piatkowska 94, 60649, Poznan, Poland, .
International Journal of Biometeorology (Impact Factor: 3.25). 01/2013; 57(1):31-44. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-012-0531-0
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020-2040 and 2040-2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040-2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T ( low )) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T ( low ) = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8-6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.

Download full-text


Available from: Radoslaw Juszczak, Sep 26, 2015
68 Reads
    • "Some studies have suggested that the number of generations of codling moth per year could further Acc e p ted P r e p r i nt increase in the future (e.g., Luedeling et al. 2011; Hirschi et al. 2012; Juszczak et al. 2013). Plum curculio is one of the most important pests for pome and stone fruits in eastern North America (Chouinard 2014b; Hock et al. 2014). "
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This paper presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), three insect pests (codling moth (Cydia pomonella), plum curculio (Conotrachelus nenuphar) and apple maggot (Rhagoletis pomonella)) and two diseases (apple scab (Venturia inaequalis) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora)). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 08/2015; DOI:10.1002/ieam.1706 · 1.38 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Based on phenological and economic output models established and meteorological data from 1972 to 2013, changes in the phenology, frost risk, and economic output of the Longjing-43 tea tree in the Yuezhou Longjing tea production area of China were evaluated. As the local climate has changed, the beginning dates of tea bud and leaf plucking of this cultivar in all five counties studied has advanced significantly by -1.28 to -0.88 days/decade, with no significant change in the risk of frost. The main tea-producing stages in the tea production cycle include the plucking periods for superfine, grade 1, and grade 2 buds and leaves. Among the five bud and leaf grades, the economic output of the plucking periods for superfine and grade 1 decreased significantly, that for grade 2 showed no significant change, and those for grades 3 and 4 increased significantly. The economic output of large-area tea plantations employing an average of 45 workers per hectare and producing superfine to grade 2 buds and leaves were significantly reduced by 6,745-8,829 yuan/decade/ha, depending on the county. Those tea farmers who planted tea trees on their own small land holdings and produced superfine to grade 4 tea buds and leaves themselves experienced no significant decline in economic output.
    International Journal of Biometeorology 07/2014; 59(5). DOI:10.1007/s00484-014-0873-x · 3.25 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Population dynamics of parasitoid-host interaction is primary important knowledge to develop an efficient biological control strategy of insect pests. We analyzed the seasonal dynamic of the parasitoid community of the codling moth in two sites in South-Eastern France, which differed by the number of codling moth annual generations. Parasitism was estimated by sampling both young larvae collected within apple fruits and mature larvae in band traps wrapped around the trunk of the apple trees. Parasitism rates differed between sites and between young and mature larvae. Parasitism rate were higher in young larvae (29% in average) than in the mature ones (21% in average) and globally increased along the season among cohorts of mature codling moth larvae (from 4% to 34%). The three most abundant species in the parasitoid community - Ascogaster quadridentata, Pristomerus vulnerator and Perilampus tristis - were observed at both sites, in each codling moth cohort and in both young and mature larvae. Among all the parasitoids, the proportion of Perilampus - an hyper-parasitoid attacking both Ascogaster and Pristomerus primary parasitoids - increased among the codling moth cohorts (from 9% to 53%) whereas the proportion of Ascogaster decreased (from 82% to 35%). This shed light on the importance to characterize the dynamic of the whole trophic network (including hyperparasitism) to design biological control strategies.
    Biological Control 03/2015; 82:31-39. DOI:10.1016/j.biocontrol.2014.11.013 · 1.64 Impact Factor